Neither team expects any scoring off their benches. Holy Cross doesn’t really expect much scoring from anyone other than SR G Torey Thomas, SR G Keith Simmons, and JR C Tim Clifford.

The Crusaders compensate for their pedestrain field goal shooting (50.9 eFG% in the Patriot league) by making a good number of free throws. The only weakness Southern Illinois displays defensively is in allowing their opponents one free throw attempt for every two field goal attempts. In a game that expects to be played at or below 60 possessions and in which both teams enter forcing and committing turnovers on over 22% of their possessions in both at-risk and conference games, there just aren’t going to be many scoring opportunities of any kind. Holy Cross should get a massive proportion of their scoring chances at the free throw line.

If there’s a top four seed in the tournament that can beat by scoring a single point at a time against them, it’s Southern Illinois.

Prediction: Southern Illinois 59 Holy Cross 57

If you’re looking for excitement and you think excitement is run and gun for fun, this is not your game. If you like paced, measured basketball and have a copy of Hoosiers in a safe deposit box to preserve its vision for the future, you have found your special purpose in this game.

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Southern Illinois 58, Holy Cross 50
• Last 10 Prediction … Southern Illinois 57, Holy Cross 50
• Vs. Good Prediction … Southern Illinois 59, Holy Cross 50
• Trendline Prediction … Southern Illinois 57, Holy Cross 52
• Best 6 Prediction … Southern Illinois 52, Holy Cross 46

explanation

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

Southern Illinois very consistently won without dominating in the Missouri Valley Conference this season. Looking at the graph, the difference between their offensive and defensive efficiencies seems to be more consistent than the efficiencies themselves, perhaps a reflection of this non-domination. Their defense has consistently averaged 85 to 90, but with a lot of variation. It’s trending slightly better recently, but the offense it trending slightly worse to counteract that. They gutted out a solid win at Butler before falling to Creighton in the MVC tourney, and will likely play a solid game in the first round of the NCAA tourney.

SOUTHERN ILLINOIS PLAYER STATS

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

Holy Cross has shown slight improvement over the course of the season, and has a decent defense as of late, but the “Vs. Good” line in the above chart is troubling. In 10 games against above-average teams, they’ve played like the 130th-best team in the country, and their best performance would have only been good enough to beat the 60th-best team.

HOLY CROSS PLAYER STATS