EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Arizona 75, Purdue 73
• Last 10 Prediction … Purdue 71, Arizona 63
• Vs. Good Prediction … Arizona 75, Purdue 72
• Trendline Prediction … Purdue 70, Arizona 56
• Best 6 Prediction … Arizona 70, Purdue 68

explanation

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

Points, assists, turnovers, blocks, and steals listed per 100 individual possessions

At the beginning of the year, the Arizona offense was scoring enough to make up for middling defensive results. The defense has continued its middling ways, but the offense is on the decline. Most of their games are still in the 110 to 130 range (8 of the last 11), just like at the start of the year (8 of the first 11). But those that aren’t in that sweet spot are now usually bad instead of good. Most of the offensive decline is driven by a decline in eFG%. Through the first ten games, the Wildcats’ eFG% was 6% higher than expected (based on opponent defensive averages), while over the last ten it’s been 4% lower. In addition, they’ve starting turning the ball over at an increased rate. The offense will need to regain its shooting touch if Arizona hopes to make any noise in the tourney.

Points, assists, turnovers, blocks, and steals listed per 100 individual possessions

ARIZONA PLAYER STATS

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

Purdue is a good team that virtually nobody is talking about. Over the past 10 games, they have the 3rd best defense of any tournament team. They’ve posted adjusted defensive efficiencies below 90 in 8 of the last 10 games. Their offense is a little less consistent than it was mid-season, and has had several bad games in the past 7, but is still interspersing them with very good games. I’d be wary of picking this team to go far, but they certainly have the profile of a team that could post a surprising win or two.

PLAYER STATS