12:10 PM: #4 Virginia vs. #5 Tennessee

40 MINUTE GAME OF HORSE. Both of these teams played great on offense and poor on defense in the first round. The reason the scores look so different is all about the tempo and opponent. Both teams are likely to improve their defensive performance a bit, but Tennessee should come closer to duplicating their offensive output. Look for the Vols to win a game that could be higher scoring than the statistical prediction below indicates.

• Trendline prediction: Tennessee 75, Virginia 69
• Updated graphs and more predictions

2:15 PM: #1 Florida vs. #9 Purdue

IRRESISTIBLE FORCE VS. IMMOVABLE OBJECT. Florida is the hottest offense left in the tournament, while Purdue is the hottest (coldest?) defense left. The only SEC team Florida faced that forced a similar number of turnovers to Purdue was Tennessee, which happens to be the last team Florida lost to. Like the two Saturday 1 vs. 9 games, this should be closer than the seeds would indicate, with Florida winning a close game.

• Trendline prediction: Florida 65, Purdue 64
• Updated graphs and more predictions

2:30 PM: #2 Wisconsin vs. #7 UNLV

EXCUSE ME, HAVE YOU SEEN MY OFFENSE? Wisconsin’s offense since losing Brian Butch has been terrible, and the first half against TAMU-CC epitomized that. The offense showed up in the second half and saved the Badgers, but their numbers for the whole game are still not great after opponent adjustment. UNLV’s defense isn’t stellar, but it’s better than TAMUCC. Can the Badgers score against them?

• Trendline prediction: Wisconsin 58, UNLV 57
• Updated graphs and more predictions

2:40 PM: #4 Southern Illinois vs. #5 Virginia Tech

GAME MOST LIKELY TO HAVE A MISSED GAME-WINNING BUZZER-BEATING SHOT. Both defenses are playing great, and both offenses are sputtering. It should be a close, low scoring game. Southern Illinois is 11-3 in games decided by 5 points or less, and has 4 starters who shoot at least 74% from the FT line, so I give them a slight edge.

• Trendline prediction: Southern Illinois 56, Virginia Tech 55
• Updated graphs and more predictions

2:50 PM: #3 Oregon vs. #11 Winthrop

CINDERELLA’S LAST DANCE? I want to point out that I think the “Vs Good” prediction is much more important in this game than in a lot of others, as Winthrop really does play differently against good teams. They play better. So I’ve included it below.

• Trendline prediction: Oregon 68, Winthrop 56
• Vs. Good Prediction: Winthrop 69, Oregon 67
• Updated graphs and more predictions

4:45 PM: #2 Memphis vs. #7 Nevada

R-E-S-P-E-C-T. Memphis went undefeated in Conference USA, has a 23-game winning streak, and is a #2 seed in the NCAA tournament, yet virtually no one is talking about them. Winthrop has gotten more media love in the past week, and the Tigers are a popular pick to bow out early. Nevada won the WAC, the #10 conference according to Pomeroy ratings, by 2 games and received a #7 seed. The winner of the #9 conference (Memphis in CUSA) received a #2 seed, and the winner of the #11 conference (Butler in the Horizon) received a #5 seed, so Nevada feels slighted.

• Trendline prediction: Memphis 72, Nevada 71
• Updated graphs and more predictions

5:00 PM: #1 Kansas vs. #8 Kentucky

GAME MOST LIKELY TO BE A BLOWOUT. Kentucky’s strength recently has been their offense, although their defense played great in their first round win. Their D will have to duplicate that effort for them to stay in this game past half time. As Kansas’s two recent games with Texas showed, a great offense can light them up for a half or so, but they will make adjustments and eventually shut them down.

• Trendline prediction: Kansas 83, Kentucky 70
• Updated graphs and more predictions

5:15 PM: #4 Texas vs. #5 USC

KEVIN DURANT. Do you really need an angle other than that one? Durant’s averages over the last 7 games: 30.4 points, 10.6 rebounds, 2.6 steals, 2.6 blocks. He was nervous before the first round game against New Mexico St, and Texas didn’t pull away til late. If the nerves are gone, the Longhorns shouldn’t have too much trouble with USC. If the nerves are still there, anything could happen.

• Trendline prediction: Texas 82, USC 69
• Updated graphs and more predictions