There are a lot of parallels between the Florida - Butler matchup and the Kansas - Southern Illinois matchup. Both are games between slow, steady mid-majors and much-celebrated BCS programs packed with superior athletes.

Butler’s hope in this game is completely dependent upon their ability to control pace, something they’ve done very well over the course of the season. Butler, remember, has beaten the likes of Gonzaga, Indiana, Purdue and Tennessee (by considerably more than the Buckeyes beat them). They can beat Florida, but they probably won’t. Florida should be able to score at will, and if Butler doesn’t get back defensively, Florida can run them ragged.

That being said, Florida hasn’t been guarding people very well lately, and Butler is a very efficient team offensively…they turn the ball over less than anyone in America. If Butler limits possessions and Florida suffers at all from poor shooting, this game could be closer than the below numbers predict.

FIRST 2 GAMES ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Florida 65, Butler 59
• Last 10 Prediction … Florida 68, Butler 61
• Vs. Good Prediction … Florida 67, Butler 60
• Trendline Prediction … Florida 64, Butler 57
• Best 6 Prediction … Florida 62, Butler 53

UPDATED GRAPHS

Florida team capsule

Butler team capsule