KenPom.com has eFG% data for the last 3 years, so I took a look at what, if anything, eFG% (definition) might be able to tell us about which Sweet 16 teams will make the Final Four. Turns out, if this year holds to the patterns of the last 3 years, the Final Four is already predetermined.

I looked at each region’s Sweet 16 teams for the past 3 years, and found where each ranked compared to their competition in eFG% and eFG% allowed. There were 5 teams that were tops in their region in both offensive and defensive eFG%:

2006 #3 Florida
2005 #4 Louisville
2004 #2 Connecticut
2004 #1 Duke
2004 #3 Georgia Tech

As I’m sure you noticed, all 5 of these teams made the Final Four. 4 other teams were 1st in their region in eFG%, and 2nd in eFG% allowed:

2006 #11 George Mason
2005 #1 North Carolina
2005 #1 Illinois
2004 #1 St. Joseph’s

Three of these four made the Final Four, with St. Joseph’s losing in the Elite 8 by 2 points. What I find most amazing is that this method totally nails George Mason over UConn last year.

So, do any teams this year fit this profile? Yep. All four regions have one team that leads in both offensive and defensive eFG%. If they do as well as their statistical predecessors, the following four squads can pack their bags for Atlanta:

#1 Florida
#1 Kansas
#2 Georgetown
#3 Texas A&M

Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) = (FGM+(0.5*3PTM))/FGA … this statistic adjusts shooting percentage to account for the fact that you get more points for 3-pt shots. Shooting 1 for 3 from 3-pt range is a 50% eFG%, just like shooting 1 for 2 from 2-pt range. back to top