There’s a very good chance that this game (though it will likely be played at a faster pace, and thus, be higher scoring) will produce a lower rate of offensive efficiency than the Kansas/UCLA game. Neither Ohio State nor Memphis shoot the ball especially well (though Ohio State is clearly better both from the field and the line), though both compensate by taking good care of the ball. Memphis’s poor free throw shooting may not be much of a hindrance in this game as Ohio State does an excellent job of keeping their opponents off the free throw line.

Though Memphis is unquestionably a good team, two of their most important strengths (offensive rebounding and opponents’ turnover rate) are quite likely influenced to a significant degree by the vast talent gap between themselves and most of the teams on their schedule.

Ohio State is good both at taking care of the ball and keeping their opponents off the offensive glass. There’s no doubt Memphis is capable of performing better in both of these areas than the average Ohio State opponent, but it’s unlikely that the Tigers can match their typical performance, against their relatively low-level of competition on the season as a whole, in either area when playing Ohio State. Of course, in one game anything can happen.

The Memphis tendency most likely to cause Ohio State problems is the Tigers’s unwillingness to allow their opponents to attempt three-point shots. (On the year, just 28.8% of opponents’ attempts have come from behind the arc.) In their narrow wins over Xavier and Tennessee, Ohio State took 37.7% of their shots and made 39.5% of those attempts. Ron Lewis (53.6% of FGA are 3PTA), Jamar Butler (76% of FGA are 3PTA), and Ivan Harris (57.9% of FGA are 3PTA) will have to find atypical ways in which to maintain their scoring contributions.

It bears reminding that, prior to the unlikely events (missed Acie Law IV layup followed shortly thereafter by consecutive made free throws by Antonio Anderson) that secured Memphis’s narrow win over Texas A&M, the best team Memphis had beaten all season was Kentucky. In Maui. In November.

FIRST 3 GAMES ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Ohio St. 70, Memphis 68
• Last 10 Prediction … Ohio St. 67, Memphis 63
• Vs. Good Prediction … Ohio St. 69, Memphis 68
• Trendline Prediction … Ohio St. 65, Memphis 62
• Tourney So Far Prediction … Memphis 66, Ohio St. 64

UPDATED GRAPHS

Ohio St. team capsule

Memphis team capsule