Over the last 7 games, Oregon has averaged an eFG% of 59.5%, while holding their opponents to 45.2%. Compare that to their season averages of 53.4% and 49%, and you pretty much see the whole reason behind their recent success. In order to have a chance against Florida, they’re going to have to keep that up. Unlikely, because Florida is on an even better streak - since the start of the SEC tournament (6 games), Florida is averaging an eFG% of 59.9% while holding their opponents to 41.2%. That’s actually around their season average on offense, and a few points better on defense (they average 44.9%).

Oregon’s offensive success should really hinge on their 3-pt shooting. They shouldn’t turn the ball over much, as Florida doesn’t force many turnovers (19.4%, 264th), and Oregon doesn’t cough it up often (18.5%, 39th). They won’t get many 2nd chances, though, as Florida is 10th in the country in OR%, and Oregon has actually been below average recently. So there should be a lot of one-shot possessions for Oregon, and a LOT of those will be one 3-pt shot. The Ducks take 42.2% of their shots from 3-pt range (29th most), and hit them at a 39.1% rate (27th). Unfortunately for them, Florida allows the 2nd-lowest 3FG% in the country, at 28.9%. If they can hit shots despite Florida’s excellent perimeter defense, they have a chance. If not, they don’t.

When Florida has the ball, they should turn it over a little more often than Oregon, as Florida’s about average (20.5%, 125th) at turning it over, and Oregon’s about average at forcing them (21.5%, 148th). They should do decently on the offensive boards, though, to make up for it, as they’re better at rebounding at both ends of the floor than the Ducks. And unless something unexpected happens, they should shoot well. I doubt they’ll keep up their 59.5% eFG% average, but their offense is on an amazingly consistent, excellent streak, with 7 straight games of adjusted offensive efficiency of 125+. They should be able to keep their eFG% over 50%, and unless the Ducks are on fire from deep, that should be enough to win.

FIRST 3 GAMES ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Florida 75, Oregon 67
• Last 10 Prediction … Florida 71, Oregon 68
• Vs. Good Prediction … Florida 74, Oregon 67
• Trendline Prediction … Florida 70, Oregon 68
• Tourney So Far Prediction … Florida 78, Oregon 71

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