The first thing that jumps out at me about this matchup is the difference in tempos - UNC is the ninth fastest team in the country, while Georgetown is the 9th slowest. You might assume that whichever team forces the game to be played at its tempo will come away with the win, but looking at the teams’ prior games shows that not to be true. All 6 of Carolina’s losses have come in games with 69 or more possessions. Georgetown has only played 2 games that fast all year. 5 of Georgetown’s 6 losses have come in games with 61 or less possessions. UNC has only played 1 game that slow all year. What seems most likely is that they’ll play a game with the possessions in that middle ground of 62-68. At those tempos, both teams are 6-0, and both played about 15% better than expected (based on season stats) on offense, and average on defense. So the tempo battle seems to be a wash.

Both teams have been absolutely dominating the offensive glass in the tourney so far, collecting at least 40% of their own misses in each game so far. On the defensive end, Georgetown has allowed their opponents to get offensive rebounds at about their season average, while UNC has been holding them 5% to 10% below average. I expect that to continue, meaning the Hoyas will need to take a little better care of the ball to make up for their fewer second chance possessions. Luckily for them, North Carolina is only average at forcing turnovers. Their 2nd round opponent, Michigan State, was a high-TO, high-OReb team, just like Georgetown. UNC allowed them to hold on to the ball better than usual, but did limit their offensive rebounds.

One thing I’m curious about is how many 3-pt shots UNC will shoot. They shoot only 25.2% of their shots from long range for the season (13th least), but Georgetown opponents shoot 38.5% of theirs from 3 (42nd most). In addition, the Hoyas hold teams to 30.5% on those threes (8th best), and Carolina is only slightly above average on them, at 36.1% (115th).

Both teams are playing well on offense and decent on defense, but Carolina has just a little more defensive consistency, and they have more offensive weapons, so they’re less susceptible to foul trouble. All the stats say this should be a narrow North Carolina victory, and I see no compelling reason to think otherwise. My guess is this is gonna be one more game where either team can win at the end if they just make their shots. (On that note, UNC fans should hope that Brandon Wright isn’t at the line needing to make a FT in the closing seconds.)

FIRST 3 GAMES ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … North Carolina 71, Georgetown 67
• Last 10 Prediction … North Carolina 69, Georgetown 67
• Vs. Good Prediction … North Carolina 70, Georgetown 67
• Trendline Prediction … North Carolina 71, Georgetown 71
• Tourney So Far Prediction … North Carolina 70, Georgetown 67

UPDATED GRAPHS

North Carolina team capsule

Georgetown team capsule