UCLA will have a more difficult defensive task facing Florida than they did in the regional final against Kansas. Florida, like the Jayhawks, turns the ball over more often than ideal but they make far more shots, both from the field and from the free throw line than UCLA’s most recent vanquished foe. Which is nice for the Gators because the way UCLA is playing defense, a typically high level of offensive competency appears to be the necessary starting point if a team hopes not to embarrass itself.

Each of Florida’s starters averages at least 20 Pts/100. With the exception of Lee Humphrey, each of Florida’s starters averages at least 4.6 A/100. Taurean Green and Lee Humprey both make over 40% of their three-point attempts and 50% of their two-point attempts. Al Horford and Joakim Noah both make over 60% of their field goal attempts while getting 12.1% and 13.6% of possible offensive rebounds, respectively, while they’re on the court. Corey Brewer has slumped from behind the three-point line in the last three games (2-13) to bring his 3PTFG% down to 31.1, but he makes 55% of his two-point attempts, 71.4% of his free throws and averages 6.5 A/100.

That potent five is backed up by Walter Hodge (who comes off the bench to make half his threes, 58% of his twos (at a rate of 19.5 Pts/100), and chip in 5.1 A/100) and Chris Richard (who shoots 67.7% from the field, scoring 19.4 Pts/100, and getting 10.8% of possible offensive rebounds).

On the other hand, Florida won’t trouble UCLA with the degree of defensive pressure Kansas applied, either. Florida has allowed each of their last three opponents to score at least a point per possession and hasn’t forced turnovers on even 19% of their opponents’ possessions since they played Georgia in the SEC Tournament.

As it took a 62.2 eFG% performance, grabbing 41.7% of their offensive rebound opportunities, and Kansas fouling intentionally at the end of the game to get UCLA up to exactly one point per possession in the regional final, Florida’s inability to force turnovers could come in hand if UCLA fails to bring the Florida offense down to the Bruins’ level. UCLA could realistically halve the 36.8 TO% they posted in the regional final.

Florida’s defensive strengths lie in keeping their opponents off the free throw line and the offensive glass. UCLA doesn’t really excel in either of those areas typically. They beat Indiana and Pittsburgh despite getting just 25% of possible offensive rebounds over the two games. The Bruins’ good offensive performances are usually driven by good shooting and taking care of the ball, an obviously effective combination in general, but one that could, in particular, take advantage of Florida’s relative defensive weaknesses.

UCLA might not be playing this weekend were it not for Arron Afflalo’s ability to make tough shots. Unfortunately for Afflalo, he’ll attempt to continue to do so against the one wing who is unarguably a better defender than Brandon Rush.

Even if Brewer succeeds in keeping Afflalo from again shooting 76.6 eFG%, Josh Shipp and Darren Collison should improve their effectiveness and efficiency simply by not combining to turn the ball over 12 times again.

Largely unnoticed, UCLA has received excellent production in limited minutes from Michael Roll (4-6 FGA, 3-5 3PTA in 28 minutes) and Russell Westbrook (5-6 FGA in 15 minutes) off the bench over the last three games.

FIRST 4 GAMES ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Florida 65, UCLA 64
• Last 10 Prediction … Florida 64, UCLA 63
• Vs. Good Prediction … Florida 66, UCLA 65
• Trendline Prediction … Florida 61, UCLA 61
• Tourney So Far Prediction … UCLA 63, Florida 57

UPDATED GRAPHS

Florida team capsule

UCLA team capsule