Per Ken Pomeroy’s HD boxscores (and barring errors in my calculations), in the NCAA Tournament Ohio State is +37.4 points per 100 possessions when Greg Oden is on the floor and -20.5 points per 100 possessions when Greg Oden is off the floor. I’ve got a sneaky suspicion that everything that follows in this preview is simply padding.

Press on I will, though, to say that these teams enter the game dead-even across each of the efficiency breakdowns. Looking at the four factors for both teams, I have formulated the following four predictions:

1) Georgetown will shoot a higher percentage from the field than Ohio State.
2) Georgetown will turn the ball over far more frequently than Ohio State.
3) Georgetown will get a lot of offensive rebounds, but probably not as many as they usually do.
4) Ohio State will get far more offensive rebounds than they usually do.

It’s very unlikely that either team will significantly impair their opponent’s ability to score. Ohio State has been vulnerable to the three-point shot throughout the tournament. Georgetown’s proficiency in converting that shot could limit Greg Oden’s overall defensive impact.

However, it’s unlikely that Oden has no defensive impact in the game. To whatever degree Oden has the opportunity to block or alter shots, those shots figure to be taken by Georgetown’s two best scorers: Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert. Then again, those are the two Hoyas most likely to get Oden in foul trouble.

Even he doesn’t play a lot of minutes, Oden’s rebounding could be the deciding factor in the game. Georgetown both relies on their excellent offensive rebounding to make up for their turnovers and does a poor job of defensive rebounding. Any extra attention Oden draws (in addition to the extra rebounds he gathers) will be a boon to his one-and-a-half excellent rebounding teammates: Othello Hunter (15.8 OR%, 14.3 DR%) and Daequan Cook (4.6 OR%, 20.5 DR%).

I have a sneaking suspicion that Hunter, in particular, could provide us with a preview of the excellent 2007-08 season he figures to have should Mr. Oden leave for the NBA.

FIRST 4 GAMES ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Ohio St. 63, Georgetown 63
• Last 10 Prediction … Georgetown 60, Ohio St. 59
• Vs. Good Prediction … Ohio St. 63, Georgetown 63
• Trendline Prediction … Ohio St. 66, Georgetown 65
• Tourney So Far Prediction … Georgetown 69, Ohio St. 68

UPDATED GRAPHS

Ohio St. team capsule

Georgetown team capsule