First, if you want to contact us, we can be reached via email.

Second, this site wouldn’t exist without Ken Pomeroy. All the graphs use his efficiency stats as a starting point. So show him some love.

Now, on to the explanations…

FOUR FACTORS

(Estimated) Team Possessions = FGA+(.44*FTA)+TO-OR
Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) = (FGM+(0.5*3PTM))/FGA
Free Throw Rate (FT Rate) = (FTM*100)/FGA … Note: For teams, their opponents’ FT Rate is calculated as (FTA*100)/FGA on the assumption that, over time, you have minimal control over how well your opponents shoot free throws.
Turnover Percentage (TO%) = TO/Possessions
Offensive Rebounding Percentage (OR%) = OR/(teamOR+oppDR) … Note: individual offensive rebounding percentage = player’s OR/((teamOR+oppDR)*(player’s MIN/(teamMIN/5)))
Defensive Rebounding Percentage (DR%) = DR/(teamDR+oppOR) … Note: individual defensive rebounding percentage = player’s DR/((teamDR+oppOR)*(player’s MIN/(teamMIN/5)))

INDIVIDUAL STATS

PPWS (Points Per Weighted Shot) = PTS/(FGA+(.44*FTA))
Pts/100 = Points per 100 individual possessions
A/100 = Assists per 100 individual possessions
TO/100 = Turnovers per 100 individual possessions
S/100 = Steals per 100 individual possessions
BS/100 = Blocked Shots per 100 individual possessions

Note: individual possessions = (Min/(teamMin/5))*teamPossessions

TEAM EFFICIENCY STATS

Tempo = Estimated possessions per game
Offensive Efficiency = Points scored per 100 possessions
Defensive Efficiency = Points allowed per 100 possessions
Overall Rating = (also known as Pythagorean rating) combines the adjusted (see below) offensive and defensive efficiency into one overall rating that represents a team’s theoretical winning percentage against a team with exactly average offense and defense (i.e. about the 150th-rated team this year).

All tempo and efficiency stats in the “Adjusted Game Efficiency Data” sections of team capsules are adjusted based on opponent rating and location in order to show how a team would have performed against an exactly average opponent. [The theory behind the efficiency ratings and all the adjustments can be found here, on Ken Pomeroy’s site.]

The team graphs show the adjusted performance for each individual game, along with (WARNING: technical jargon) a 2nd-order polynomial fit line. The chart below the graphs shows the average of these game ratings for several different situations:

“Full Season” = average for all games
“Last 10″ = average for the last 10 games
“Vs. Good” = average for games against teams whose overall rating is above .5
“Trendline” = tempo and efficiencies based on the best-fit trendline from the graph
“Best 6″ = average tempo and efficiencies from the team’s highest-rated 6-game streak (since it takes 6 straight wins for trophy)

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

Game predictions based on the various efficiency averages are made using the following formula:

[TeamA predicted offensive efficiency] = [TeamA offensive efficiency] x [TeamB defensive efficiency] / [National average efficiency]

Home field advantage is accounted for by multiplying the home offense and the visiting defense by 1.014, and dividing the home defense and the visiting offense by the same. A tempo prediction is made using the same formula (but with tempo replacing efficiency), then the predicted tempo and efficiencies are converted to an actual score.

MORE INFORMATION

Recommended further reading for those interested, mostly from the invaluable Ken Pomeroy (some of these are the same links from above):

• Efficiency ratings
• Pythagorean Rating
• The Four Factors
• The Four Factors 2
• Miscellaneous

If any of the above is unclear or incomplete, or you have any questions, just shoot us an email, and we’ll be glad to try and do better.