Merry Christmas!

The Florida Gators are the best offensive team in college basketball.

I can make that statement unequivocally because the Ohio State Buckeyes eliminated the other contender for “best offensive team in college basketball (unofficial and subjective)” in their semi-final. Ohio State’s defensive performance against Georgetown was every bit as impressive as Florida’s offensive performance against UCLA.

Tonight, though, Ohio State will not get the benefit of facing 39 minutes of scoreless bench play (and not just scoreless, Georgetown’s reserves attempted only 2 shots in that time). Barring a Dan Werner cameo, at no point will Florida have a player on the court who is not both a capable and efficient scorer.

Ohio State will have to play various offensive lightweights (David Lighty, Matt Terwilliger, and, on his current form, if not his ability, Daequan Cook) for upwards of 20 percent of the game. This could be a deciding factor as Ohio State, despite being the better of the two teams defensively, will need a good offensive performance as well (as they had against Georgetown) to beat the Gators.

In their losses, Florida has struggled to guard athletic forwards. Julian Wright, Darrell Arthur, Al Thornton, and Derrick Byars each made significant contributions in their teams’ victories by attacking Horford and/or Noah individually. Ohio State doesn’t have a player like that on the roster. Both of the Florida big men are more effective using their length and athleticism as help defenders or as part of a zone than in one-on-one situations. Greg Oden will provide a different sort of defensive challenge, but I expect that Ohio State will rely a great deal on Mike Conley, Jr. using dribble penetration to create scoring opportunities for his teammates.

FIRST 5 GAMES ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Florida 76, Ohio St. 68
• Last 10 Prediction … Florida 70, Ohio St. 69
• Vs. Good Prediction … Florida 70, Ohio St. 69
• Trendline Prediction … Florida 73, Ohio St. 72
• Tourney So Far Prediction … Florida 78, Ohio St. 77

UPDATED GRAPHS

Florida team capsule

Ohio St. team capsule

Saturday, 6:07 PM: Ohio St. vs. Georgetown

This should be an offensive, evenly matched game. OSU’s Greg Oden has been possibly the most influential player in the tournament (when he hasn’t been sitting due to fouls), but this is the first time he’s played against someone his own size. Oden will likely pick up some fouls, and while he rides the pine Georgetown can dominate down low offensively. When he’s in, Georgetown will shoot more 3’s, so will need to maintain their good shooting touch. Ohio State, on offense, will shoot worse than Georgetown, but turn the ball over less, and get more offensive boards than usual. In the end this may come down to how much time Oden spends on the court. I like Georgetown to advance, but Bret (who wrote most of our preview) seems to favor Ohio State, and sees a possible big day from Othello Hunter.

• Trendline Prediction … Ohio St. 66, Georgetown 65
• Tourney So Far Prediction … Georgetown 69, Ohio St. 68
• In depth analysis and updated graphs/stats

Saturday, 8:47 PM: Florida vs. UCLA

This rematch of last year’s title game pits a UCLA defense that has absolutely suffocated every tournament foe so far versus a Florida offense that has the best balanced attack in the country. Florida will get few unchallenged shots, but should do a better job of taking advantage of them than any previous UCLA foes. On defense, Florida doesn’t foul much, and rebounds well, but UCLA’s offense succeeds without relying too much on those factors, so the Bruins should be OK. They won’t turn the ball over as much as Florida, but those extra possessions will be balanced by fewer second chances from offensive rebounding. UCLA struggles to score on their own sometimes, while Florida will only struggle if UCLA’s defense forces them to, so the lower the score of this game, the better it is for UCLA. In the end, UCLA can’t shut down EVERY aspect of the Florida offense, and the Gators have the balance to take whatever UCLA is giving them. That should be the difference.

• Trendline Prediction … Florida 61, UCLA 61
• Tourney So Far Prediction … UCLA 63, Florida 57
• In depth analysis and updated graphs/stats

Each of Florida?s starters averages at least 20 Pts/100. With the exception of Lee Humphrey, each of Florida?s starters averages at least 4.6 A/100. Taurean Green and Lee Humprey both make over 40% of their three-point attempts and 50% of their two-point attempts. Al Horford and Joakim Noah both make over 60% of their field goal attempts while getting 12.1% and 13.6% of possible offensive rebounds, respectively, while they?re on the court. Corey Brewer has slumped from behind the three-point line in the last three games (2-13) to bring his 3PTFG% down to 31.1, but he makes 55% of his two-point attempts, 71.4% of his free throws and averages 6.5 A/100.

That potent five is backed up by Walter Hodge (who comes off the bench to make half his threes, 58% of his twos (at a rate of 19.5 Pts/100), and chip in 5.1 A/100) and Chris Richard (who shoots 67.7% from the field, scoring 19.4 Pts/100, and getting 10.8% of possible offensive rebounds).

On the other hand, Florida won?t trouble UCLA with the degree of defensive pressure Kansas applied, either. Florida has allowed each of their last three opponents to score at least a point per possession and hasn?t forced turnovers on even 19% of their opponents? possessions since they played Georgia in the SEC Tournament.

As it took a 62.2 eFG% performance, grabbing 41.7% of their offensive rebound opportunities, and Kansas fouling intentionally at the end of the game to get UCLA up to exactly one point per possession in the regional final, Florida?s inability to force turnovers could come in hand if UCLA fails to bring the Florida offense down to the Bruins? level. UCLA could realistically halve the 36.8 TO% they posted in the regional final.

Florida?s defensive strengths lie in keeping their opponents off the free throw line and the offensive glass. UCLA doesn?t really excel in either of those areas typically. They beat Indiana and Pittsburgh despite getting just 25% of possible offensive rebounds over the two games. The Bruins? good offensive performances are usually driven by good shooting and taking care of the ball, an obviously effective combination in general, but one that could, in particular, take advantage of Florida?s relative defensive weaknesses.

UCLA might not be playing this weekend were it not for Arron Afflalo?s ability to make tough shots. Unfortunately for Afflalo, he?ll attempt to continue to do so against the one wing who is unarguably a better defender than Brandon Rush.

Even if Brewer succeeds in keeping Afflalo from again shooting 76.6 eFG%, Josh Shipp and Darren Collison should improve their effectiveness and efficiency simply by not combining to turn the ball over 12 times again.

Largely unnoticed, UCLA has received excellent production in limited minutes from Michael Roll (4-6 FGA, 3-5 3PTA in 28 minutes) and Russell Westbrook (5-6 FGA in 15 minutes) off the bench over the last three games.

FIRST 4 GAMES ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Florida 65, UCLA 64
• Last 10 Prediction … Florida 64, UCLA 63
• Vs. Good Prediction … Florida 66, UCLA 65
• Trendline Prediction … Florida 61, UCLA 61
• Tourney So Far Prediction … UCLA 63, Florida 57

UPDATED GRAPHS

Florida team capsule

UCLA team capsule

Press on I will, though, to say that these teams enter the game dead-even across each of the efficiency breakdowns. Looking at the four factors for both teams, I have formulated the following four predictions:

1) Georgetown will shoot a higher percentage from the field than Ohio State.
2) Georgetown will turn the ball over far more frequently than Ohio State.
3) Georgetown will get a lot of offensive rebounds, but probably not as many as they usually do.
4) Ohio State will get far more offensive rebounds than they usually do.

It?s very unlikely that either team will significantly impair their opponent?s ability to score. Ohio State has been vulnerable to the three-point shot throughout the tournament. Georgetown?s proficiency in converting that shot could limit Greg Oden?s overall defensive impact.

However, it?s unlikely that Oden has no defensive impact in the game. To whatever degree Oden has the opportunity to block or alter shots, those shots figure to be taken by Georgetown?s two best scorers: Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert. Then again, those are the two Hoyas most likely to get Oden in foul trouble.

Even he doesn?t play a lot of minutes, Oden?s rebounding could be the deciding factor in the game. Georgetown both relies on their excellent offensive rebounding to make up for their turnovers and does a poor job of defensive rebounding. Any extra attention Oden draws (in addition to the extra rebounds he gathers) will be a boon to his one-and-a-half excellent rebounding teammates: Othello Hunter (15.8 OR%, 14.3 DR%) and Daequan Cook (4.6 OR%, 20.5 DR%).

I have a sneaking suspicion that Hunter, in particular, could provide us with a preview of the excellent 2007-08 season he figures to have should Mr. Oden leave for the NBA.

FIRST 4 GAMES ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Ohio St. 63, Georgetown 63
• Last 10 Prediction … Georgetown 60, Ohio St. 59
• Vs. Good Prediction … Ohio St. 63, Georgetown 63
• Trendline Prediction … Ohio St. 66, Georgetown 65
• Tourney So Far Prediction … Georgetown 69, Ohio St. 68

UPDATED GRAPHS

Ohio St. team capsule

Georgetown team capsule

• UCLA’s amazing defense and non-amazing offense
• Florida’s consistency at both ends of the court

AVERAGE ADJUSTED EFFICIENCY, FIRST 4 GAMES

Saturday, 4:40 PM: Ohio St. vs. Memphis

Not many turnovers or fouls (but if there are, advantage goes to Memphis), a lot of missed shots, and a close game in the 60’s. Both of Ohio State’s last 2 opponents had them on the ropes but didn’t know how to finish the fight. Memphis has won 25 straight games - they know how to finish.

• Trendline Prediction … Ohio St. 65, Memphis 62
• Tourney So Far Prediction … Memphis 66, Ohio St. 64
• Complete preview, with analysis and updated graphs

Saturday, 7:05 PM: Kansas vs. UCLA

A defensive battle, similar to both teams’ games from last round. Despite UCLA’s stellar defense, Kansas should find it almost a relief to face them, after facing such physical perimeter D against Southern Illinois. They’ll need to maintain their hot shooting to advance, as UCLA will likely have the rebounding advantage.

• Trendline Prediction … Kansas 66, UCLA 61
• Tourney So Far Prediction … UCLA 62, Kansas 60
• Complete preview, with analysis and updated graphs

Sunday, 2:40 PM: Florida vs. Oregon

Probably the highest scoring Elite 8 game. Florida should have the advantage in rebounding, and neither team should turn it over a whole lot. Florida will be able to score, and this should come down to whether Oregon can hit their 3-pt shots. Florida’s 3-pt defense is 2nd-best in the country, so the Ducks are probably headed home.

• Trendline Prediction … Florida 70, Oregon 68
• Tourney So Far Prediction … Florida 78, Oregon 71
• Complete preview, with analysis and updated graphs

Sunday, 5:05 PM: North Carolina vs. Georgetown

Drastic clash of tempos, that will probably be played at a middle-ground speed. Both teams have great offenses, but Carolina’s defense has been playing just a touch better. And if the refs call it tight, UNC has the depth to withstand foul trouble better than Georgetown. As has been the pattern in the past 2 rounds, this should come down to the wire.

• Trendline Prediction … UNC 71, Georgetown 71
• Tourney So Far Prediction … UNC 70, Georgetown 67
• Complete preview, with analysis and updated graphs

Oregon’s offensive success should really hinge on their 3-pt shooting. They shouldn’t turn the ball over much, as Florida doesn’t force many turnovers (19.4%, 264th), and Oregon doesn’t cough it up often (18.5%, 39th). They won’t get many 2nd chances, though, as Florida is 10th in the country in OR%, and Oregon has actually been below average recently. So there should be a lot of one-shot possessions for Oregon, and a LOT of those will be one 3-pt shot. The Ducks take 42.2% of their shots from 3-pt range (29th most), and hit them at a 39.1% rate (27th). Unfortunately for them, Florida allows the 2nd-lowest 3FG% in the country, at 28.9%. If they can hit shots despite Florida’s excellent perimeter defense, they have a chance. If not, they don’t.

When Florida has the ball, they should turn it over a little more often than Oregon, as Florida’s about average (20.5%, 125th) at turning it over, and Oregon’s about average at forcing them (21.5%, 148th). They should do decently on the offensive boards, though, to make up for it, as they’re better at rebounding at both ends of the floor than the Ducks. And unless something unexpected happens, they should shoot well. I doubt they’ll keep up their 59.5% eFG% average, but their offense is on an amazingly consistent, excellent streak, with 7 straight games of adjusted offensive efficiency of 125+. They should be able to keep their eFG% over 50%, and unless the Ducks are on fire from deep, that should be enough to win.

FIRST 3 GAMES ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Florida 75, Oregon 67
• Last 10 Prediction … Florida 71, Oregon 68
• Vs. Good Prediction … Florida 74, Oregon 67
• Trendline Prediction … Florida 70, Oregon 68
• Tourney So Far Prediction … Florida 78, Oregon 71

UPDATED GRAPHS

Florida team capsule

Oregon team capsule

Both teams have been absolutely dominating the offensive glass in the tourney so far, collecting at least 40% of their own misses in each game so far. On the defensive end, Georgetown has allowed their opponents to get offensive rebounds at about their season average, while UNC has been holding them 5% to 10% below average. I expect that to continue, meaning the Hoyas will need to take a little better care of the ball to make up for their fewer second chance possessions. Luckily for them, North Carolina is only average at forcing turnovers. Their 2nd round opponent, Michigan State, was a high-TO, high-OReb team, just like Georgetown. UNC allowed them to hold on to the ball better than usual, but did limit their offensive rebounds.

One thing I’m curious about is how many 3-pt shots UNC will shoot. They shoot only 25.2% of their shots from long range for the season (13th least), but Georgetown opponents shoot 38.5% of theirs from 3 (42nd most). In addition, the Hoyas hold teams to 30.5% on those threes (8th best), and Carolina is only slightly above average on them, at 36.1% (115th).

Both teams are playing well on offense and decent on defense, but Carolina has just a little more defensive consistency, and they have more offensive weapons, so they’re less susceptible to foul trouble. All the stats say this should be a narrow North Carolina victory, and I see no compelling reason to think otherwise. My guess is this is gonna be one more game where either team can win at the end if they just make their shots. (On that note, UNC fans should hope that Brandon Wright isn’t at the line needing to make a FT in the closing seconds.)

FIRST 3 GAMES ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … North Carolina 71, Georgetown 67
• Last 10 Prediction … North Carolina 69, Georgetown 67
• Vs. Good Prediction … North Carolina 70, Georgetown 67
• Trendline Prediction … North Carolina 71, Georgetown 71
• Tourney So Far Prediction … North Carolina 70, Georgetown 67

UPDATED GRAPHS

North Carolina team capsule

Georgetown team capsule

Though Memphis is unquestionably a good team, two of their most important strengths (offensive rebounding and opponents? turnover rate) are quite likely influenced to a significant degree by the vast talent gap between themselves and most of the teams on their schedule.

Ohio State is good both at taking care of the ball and keeping their opponents off the offensive glass. There?s no doubt Memphis is capable of performing better in both of these areas than the average Ohio State opponent, but it?s unlikely that the Tigers can match their typical performance, against their relatively low-level of competition on the season as a whole, in either area when playing Ohio State. Of course, in one game anything can happen.

The Memphis tendency most likely to cause Ohio State problems is the Tigers?s unwillingness to allow their opponents to attempt three-point shots. (On the year, just 28.8% of opponents? attempts have come from behind the arc.) In their narrow wins over Xavier and Tennessee, Ohio State took 37.7% of their shots and made 39.5% of those attempts. Ron Lewis (53.6% of FGA are 3PTA), Jamar Butler (76% of FGA are 3PTA), and Ivan Harris (57.9% of FGA are 3PTA) will have to find atypical ways in which to maintain their scoring contributions.

It bears reminding that, prior to the unlikely events (missed Acie Law IV layup followed shortly thereafter by consecutive made free throws by Antonio Anderson) that secured Memphis?s narrow win over Texas A&M, the best team Memphis had beaten all season was Kentucky. In Maui. In November.

FIRST 3 GAMES ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Ohio St. 70, Memphis 68
• Last 10 Prediction … Ohio St. 67, Memphis 63
• Vs. Good Prediction … Ohio St. 69, Memphis 68
• Trendline Prediction … Ohio St. 65, Memphis 62
• Tourney So Far Prediction … Memphis 66, Ohio St. 64

UPDATED GRAPHS

Ohio St. team capsule

Memphis team capsule