EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Virginia 77, Albany 65
• Last 10 Prediction … Virginia 67, Albany 60
• Vs. Good Prediction … Virginia 74, Albany 61
• Trendline Prediction … Virginia 60, Albany 59
• Best 6 Prediction … Virginia 75, Albany 63

The way the teams have been playing recently, this is a prime candidate for an upset. Remember, Albany had a 12-point lead with 11 minutes left as a #16 seed last year against UConn, so they’ve shown they’re not afraid of the big boys.

explanation

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

Virginia is really tumbling over the past 8 games. Their offense has seen their eFG% plunge, which has left them ranging between 95 and 120 on offensive efficiency, instead of between 110 and 135, like earlier in the season. Their defensive trendline is angling down, but taking a closer look reveals that it’s only due to a few bad games early. The average has hovered in the low 90’s for most of the calendar year, which is NOT good enough to carry the team. No matter which set of efficiency ratings you look at, Virginia seems to be vastly over-seeded. They’ve been playing at the level of about a 9 or 10 seed. Statistically, they’re clearly the weakest #4 seed in the tournament.

Points, assists, turnovers, blocks, and steals listed per 100 individual possessions

PLAYER STATS

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

Albany’s full season and peak numbers indicate that they may not live up to their 13-seed billing. The one measure that says they may is their trend numbers. Their defense is playing significantly better than at any other point this season. If that keeps up, they have a fighting chance in the first round. Notably, though, their performance against above average teams is quite a bit worse than all their other indicators, so I wouldn’t hold out hope that the defensive improvement continues.

Points, assists, turnovers, blocks, and steals listed per 100 individual possessions

ALBANY PLAYER STATS