Archive for the 'Arkansas' Category

Upsets By The Numbers

Mar 14, 2007 in monologue, Winthrop, Niagara, Arizona, Purdue, Notre Dame, TAMUCC, Virginia Tech, Illinois, VCU, Pittsburgh, Wright St., North Carolina, Eastern Kentucky, USC, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, George Washington, Georgetown, Belmont, Virginia, Albany, Stanford, Nevada, Creighton, Game-Probability Predictions, Trendline Analysis

When I fill out a bracket for an NCAA tournament pool (entered for pride only, no $$ exchanged of course), I’m obviously hoping in vain to get every game right. Not gonna happen. I have two other main goals (besides winning the pool): picking the Final Four correctly, and calling the first round […]

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USC - Arkansas Preview

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

  • Full Season Prediction … Arkansas 67, USC 66
  • Last 10 Prediction … Arkansas 72, USC 69
  • Vs. Good Prediction … Arkansas 69, USC 66
  • Trendline Prediction … Arkansas 78, USC 68
  • Best 6 Prediction … USC 67, Arkansas 67

explanation

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

  Tempo Rnk Offense Rnk Defense Rnk Overall Rnk
Overall 67.8 24 112.3 37 91.4 25 .9140 35
Vs. Good 67.3 24 111.4 41 93.1 29 .8870 41
Trendline 65.6 30 119.2 20 106.7 59 .7807 49
Last 10 65.5 31 120.2 14 100.1 50 .8917 37
Best 6 66.5 30 120.0 25 87.8 33 .9733 28

Junior guard Gabe Pruitt missed USC’s first 11 games. As you can see from the graph, his return led to an almost immediate improvement in the teams offense, without hurting the defense one bit. However, the loss to Stanford January 25th was a turning point for the team, and not in a good way. Their putrid offensive showing that game may have led to an increased focus on offense in practice (or at least in the players’ minds), as their offense has played at a higher level since that game. Unfortunately, that improvement has come at the cost of their defensive efficiency. USC has one of the worst defenses in the tournament, based on recent play.

PLAYER STATS

Name %Min eFG% FT% PPWS Pts A TO BS S OR% DR%
Young 80.7 57.7 76.4 1.23 31.6 2.6 4.2 0.4 1.3 4.7 10.8
Gibson 79.4 55.9 61.0 1.17 21,8 2.9 5.4 3.3 0.9 10.6 19.8
Stewart 75.8 55.7 73.2 1.16 27.2 2.5 3.2 0.7 2.2 1.9 11.2
Pruitt 54.2 52.7 78.7 1.15 23.1 7.5 3.4 0.5 3.0 1.6 7.2
Hackett 51.5 40.8 78.9 1.09 13.8 7.7 4.9 0.3 1.8 1.8 13.1
Lewis 50.2 45.7 68.2 0.97 17.4 3.2 4.2 0.0 2.0 2.8 9.0
Cromwell 29.5 42.9 58.5 0.97 10.5 1.2 3.2 2.5 1.3 8.0 11.3
N’Diaye 27.9 60.6 73.7 1.26 15.5 0.6 4.5 2.6 0.5 8.8 17.0
Wilkinson 25.7 47.6 65.2 1.06 9.1 2.7 1.9 0.8 0.2 16.8 11.1

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

  Tempo Rnk Offense Rnk Defense Rnk Overall Rnk
Overall 67.4 29 111.4 40 89.0 18 .9290 28
Vs. Good 66.8 30 111.7 39 89.8 16 .9250 28
Trendline 65.2 36 115.9 28 90.8 19 .9427 22
Last 10 66.2 28 113.3 41 90.8 18 .9274 24
Best 6 65.6 35 119.2 27 87.5 31 .9721 31

The Arkansas defense has held steady the whole season, and the offense is in a slight uptick entering the tourney. That uptick would look even “upper” if not for that last game against Florida. I’m going to credit Florida for that, more than blaming Arkansas. No matter which efficiency stats you look at, Arkansas appears to be a little underseeded.

ARKANSAS PLAYER STATS

Name %Min eFG% FT% PPWS Pts A TO BS S OR% DR%
Beverley 86.1 54.0 80.8 1.19 23.7 5.5 3.5 0.7 3.0 4.1 10.8
Ervin 79.6 54.1 69.6 1.17 18.5 9.2 5.3 0.2 2.2 3.0 9.3
Weems 77.4 54.3 72.1 1.13 22.4 4.0 4.8 0.8 2.5 6.3 11.5
Hill 58.9 64.1 49.2 1.26 15.6 1.0 3.4 7.4 2.6 7.2 14.3
Thomas 57.9 45.1 77.6 1.07 26.5 3.3 5.5 0.6 0.8 10.7 17.9
Welsh 26.4 44.2 82.4 0.95 18.6 4.4 3.8 0.0 1.5 2.8 6.7
Hunter 24.9 48.6 71.0 1.08 15.7 1.4 4.4 2.6 1.4 5.2 12.7
McCurdy 21.0 40.0 75.9 1.02 11.2 8.3 6.6 0.2 2.5 0.9 11.2
Washington 14.9 49.3 59.1 1.03 25.4 1.5 4.4 2.1 1.2 17.8 10.9

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