Archive for the 'Belmont' Category

Upsets By The Numbers

Mar 14, 2007 in monologue, Winthrop, Niagara, Arizona, Purdue, Notre Dame, TAMUCC, Virginia Tech, Illinois, VCU, Pittsburgh, Wright St., North Carolina, Eastern Kentucky, USC, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, George Washington, Georgetown, Belmont, Virginia, Albany, Stanford, Nevada, Creighton, Game-Probability Predictions, Trendline Analysis

When I fill out a bracket for an NCAA tournament pool (entered for pride only, no $$ exchanged of course), I’m obviously hoping in vain to get every game right. Not gonna happen. I have two other main goals (besides winning the pool): picking the Final Four correctly, and calling the first round […]

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Georgetown - Belmont Preview

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

  • Full Season Prediction … Georgetown 72, Belmont 55
  • Last 10 Prediction … Georgetown 73, Belmont 56
  • Vs. Good Prediction … Georgetown 70, Belmont 52
  • Trendline Prediction … Georgetown 76, Belmont 64
  • Best 6 Prediction … Georgetown 78, Belmont 60

explanation

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

  Tempo Rnk Offense Rnk Defense Rnk Overall Rnk
Overall 60.2 63 123.6 1 88.4 15 .9790 6
Vs. Good 59.6 64 124.6 3 89.2 14 .9792 4
Trendline 62.7 51 121.8 15 86.2 10 .9816 7
Last 10 60.6 58 122.4 7 85.0 6 .9851 2
Best 6 59.2 64 134.6 2 88.7 40 .9918 7

For a while Georgetown’s offense was humming along like an unstoppable juggernaut. They posted adjusted efficiencies over 130 in 8 out of 9 games, which is just ridiculous. The last 8 games, however, they’ve only reached that mark once. I’ve got no explanation for why they went on the sudden cold spell, but they may have figured it out themselves, because the last two games have been much better. If the Georgetown offense is back to its old ways, the Hoyas will be in good shape, because the defense is playing the best it has all year, mostly due to an improved eFG% allowed. Georgetwon’s overall rating in 11 of their past 12 games has been over .95, which is NCAA quality. That consistency will be needed in a title run.

Points, assists, turnovers, blocks, and steals listed per 100 individual possessions

GEORGETOWN PLAYER STATS

Name %Min eFG% FT% PPWS Pts A TO BS S OR% DR%
Green 82.1 55.6 78.4 1.20 29.2 6.8 5.5 2.4 1.7 7.4 16.1
Sapp 81.6 48.1 63.4 1.02 17.9 7.0 3.9 0.3 2.2 4.0 11.3
Wallace 79.4 62.7 90.0 1.35 23.4 6.4 5.3 0.1 1.7 2.9 8.0
Hibbert 65.4 69.3 70.1 1.43 32.6 2.3 3.2 6.2 1.2 13.2 18.0
Summers 64.5 51.4 77.4 1.15 23.6 2.5 5.1 1.5 2.3 8.9 9.3
Ewing 33.3 64.6 48.7 1.26 19.7 4.6 4.3 2.5 1.9 10.6 9.7
Rivers 26.5 43.2 40.0 0.87 7.9 4.0 5.2 0.4 1.4 2.6 12.9
Macklin 21.8 75.5 35.3 1.42 19.3 3.9 3.6 0.7 0.2 11.2 7.2

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

  Tempo Rnk Offense Rnk Defense Rnk Overall Rnk
Overall 67.4 29 103.6 56 99.1 53 .6270 56
Vs. Good 69.8 10 95.6 61 92.5 27 .5935 56
Trendline 69.2 10 117.1 23 98.5 44 .8798 37
Last 10 68.1 14 108.4 51 98.7 48 .7445 51
Best 6 67.5 23 114.6 43 98.5 59 .8498 55

As you can say about a lot of automatic qualifiers, Belmont is playing its best basketball of the year right now. Their offense is at its peak and trending upwards, driven by Andy Wicke’s insane 3-py shooting (30 of 57 over the past 7 games). And their defense, while not actually playing much better on average, has been much more consistent, with adjusted efficiencies between 90 and 110 in each of the last 13 games. An important note: the last time Belmont played an above average team (one with a higher adj. offense than adj. defense) was 20 games ago. It’s hard to determine whether their “Vs. Good” numbers are low because they were playing badly a the beginning of the year, or if their numbers at the beginning of the year were low because they were playing tougher teams.

Points, assists, turnovers, blocks, and steals listed per 100 individual possessions

PLAYER STATS

Name %Min eFG% FT% PPWS Pts A TO BS S OR% DR%
Hare 77.7 54.1 79.1 1.18 27.4 4.9 3.9 0.2 1.7 1.8 8.2
Goodwin 62.3 47.1 74.0 1.03 14.0 4.0 2.8 0.0 1.6 2.7 8.0
Wicke 59.0 66.8 66.7 1.34 22.1 6.4 4.8 0.0 2.7 1.9 6.2
Harris 54.6 46.2 73.2 1.03 15.2 5.5 5.9 0.1 2.4 3.8 9.3
Dotson 53.0 50.3 78.9 1.04 18.7 5.3 3.5 0.6 1.6 5.6 16.6
Preston 45.0 63.6 62.2 1.30 28.1 3.6 4.6 3.1 1.7 13.4 16.3
Herndon 41.5 62.1 56.3 1.25 39.2 1.7 6.4 5.1 1.5 14.6 21.1
Dansby 40.2 48.5 69.8 1.05 18.5 4.6 5.0 0.7 1.4 6.9 20.8
Peeples 36.9 41.7 73.0 1.04 8.6 6.2 5.7 0.5 1.2 8.3 12.0
Belcher 24.0 52.0 66.7 1.06 22.4 3.2 4.0 1.0 1.8 14.8 14.3

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