There are a lot of parallels between the Florida - Butler matchup and the Kansas - Southern Illinois matchup. Both are games between slow, steady mid-majors and much-celebrated BCS programs packed with superior athletes.

Butler’s hope in this game is completely dependent upon their ability to control pace, something they’ve done very well over the course of the season. Butler, remember, has beaten the likes of Gonzaga, Indiana, Purdue and Tennessee (by considerably more than the Buckeyes beat them). They can beat Florida, but they probably won’t. Florida should be able to score at will, and if Butler doesn’t get back defensively, Florida can run them ragged.

That being said, Florida hasn’t been guarding people very well lately, and Butler is a very efficient team offensively…they turn the ball over less than anyone in America. If Butler limits possessions and Florida suffers at all from poor shooting, this game could be closer than the below numbers predict.

FIRST 2 GAMES ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Florida 65, Butler 59
• Last 10 Prediction … Florida 68, Butler 61
• Vs. Good Prediction … Florida 67, Butler 60
• Trendline Prediction … Florida 64, Butler 57
• Best 6 Prediction … Florida 62, Butler 53

UPDATED GRAPHS

Florida team capsule

Butler team capsule

Maryland took a little while to put Davidson away, but there’s no shame in that. They ended up with good offensive and defensive adjusted efficiencies for the night. Butler handled Old Dominion, but did so mainly by playing well offensively. They’ll need to play much better on D to have a shot against Maryland. The full season stats say this should be very close, but Butler’s been playing much worse recently. Maryland should handle them without too much trouble.

1st ROUND GAME ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Maryland 66, Butler 64
• Last 10 Prediction … Maryland 71, Butler 61
• Vs. Good Prediction … Maryland 69, Butler 65
• Trendline Prediction … Maryland 68, Butler 58
• Best 6 Prediction … Maryland 67, Butler 62

UPDATED GRAPHS

Maryland team capsule

Butler team capsule

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Butler 63, Old Dominion 57
• Last 10 Prediction … Butler 64, Old Dominion 62
• Vs. Good Prediction … Butler 66, Old Dominion 62
• Trendline Prediction … Butler 64, Old Dominion 59
• Best 6 Prediction … Butler 61, Old Dominion 56

explanation

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

Butler made the NCAA tournament largely on the strength of their performance in their first 5 games, which included wins over Notre Dame and Indiana at home, and Tennessee and Gonzaga in New York. As you can see from the graph, both their offense and defense were performing well at that time. Their offense has maintained its efficiency, but the defense isn’t anywhere near as good as it was, mainly because they’ve lost the ability to force turnovers:

• First 5 games … TO% over 22.0 in every game
• Last 13 games … TO% over 22.0 once

Long story short, their loss to Wright State in the Horizon League conference tournament championship game was no fluke. If they can’t regain their defensive form, they’ll be hard pressed to make any noise in the Big Dance.

Points, assists, turnovers, blocks, and steals listed per 100 individual possessions

BUTLER PLAYER STATS

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

Old Dominion had a decent stretch not too long ago where they were playing like a team that could pull off a big win. Recently they’ve regressed on both offense and defense, and they haven’t played an NCAA quality game (adjusted rating over .95) in their last 6. Lucky for them they’re playing Butler, one of the weaker 5 seeds, and also a team that’s not at the top of its game.

Points, assists, turnovers, blocks, and steals listed per 100 individual possessions

PLAYER STATS