Archive for the 'BYU' Category

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BYU - Xavier Preview

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

  • Full Season Prediction … Xavier 77, BYU 74
  • Last 10 Prediction … Xavier 81, BYU 73
  • Vs. Good Prediction … Xavier 76, BYU 75
  • Trendline Prediction … Xavier 77, BYU 73
  • Best 6 Prediction … Xavier 74, BYU 71

explanation

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

  Tempo Rnk Offense Rnk Defense Rnk Overall Rnk
Overall 68.6 18 116.4 21 97.4 50 .8860 40
Vs. Good 67.9 20 117.3 25 96.7 49 .9022 36
Trendline 68.4 16 124.9 11 103.1 53 .9011 31
Last 10 68.0 15 121.2 10 101.7 53 .8835 40
Best 6 64.3 44 125.7 15 92.6 49 .9709 34

BYU’s defense has been hot and cold this year, with right now being a relatively cold spell. Their offense, though, made an abrupt leap midseason, and is what makes them a dangerous team. The leap coincides with senior guard Rashaun Broadus’s suspension from the team due to a drunk driving incident. Broadus shot a miserable 34% from the field this year, so his absence frees up shots for, well anybody else. Their defense up to that point had been showing promising signs, but immediately regressed with his loss. However, their defense now is no worse than it was at the start of the year, and the huge offensive improvement makes this a clear case of addition by subtraction.

Points, assists, turnovers, blocks, and steals listed per 100 individual possessions

BYU PLAYER STATS

Name %Min eFG% FT% PPWS Pts A TO BS S OR% DR%
Cummard 73.1 64.0 80.0 1.34 18.7 5.6 2.9 1.7 2.9 7.6 15.0
Young 72.0 54.7 79.4 1.19 35.3 2.9 4.5 0.3 0.9 10.0 16.4
Plaisted 71.8 55.7 48.9 1.11 26.4 2.3 3.4 2.7 0.9 10.1 14.7
Ainge 64.8 63.3 73.3 1.32 17.9 10.2 5.3 0.1 1.5 1.7 11.9
Balderson 60.3 48.2 61.6 1.02 19.3 3.9 4.2 0.2 2.7 4.1 10.8
Rose 37.9 63.2 73.3 1.28 23.9 2.2 2.3 0.1 0.7 1.5 8.6
Tavernari 24.3 55.6 69.6 1.15 30.8 2.6 3.2 1.1 2.6 8.9 19.5
Burgess 22.4 63.3 72.0 1.32 20.2 5.5 4.1 0.2 1.4 6.3 9.8
Murdock 15.9 40.0 66.7 0.95 10.4 8.3 3.7 0.0 2.3 3.6 8.3

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

  Tempo Rnk Offense Rnk Defense Rnk Overall Rnk
Overall 67.5 26 117.8 15 94.7 39 .9250 31
Vs. Good 66.6 31 118.1 21 95.9 43 .9157 33
Trendline 66.1 29 113.0 39 87.6 12 .9491 19
Last 10 66.7 18 119.3 20 90.8 19 .9588 14
Best 6 67.6 22 125.0 16 89.1 41 .9801 23

Before their conference tournament loss to Rhode Island, I was planning on highlighting Xavier as a sneaky-good team that was off everyone’s radar heading into the opening weekend. That loss had me worried, so I checked the box score to see what happened. Turns out it was their worst shooting night of the calendar year. Xavier is 30th in the nation in 3PFG% (39%), and 31st in FT% (74.1%), but in that game they shot 3’s at a 25% clip, and FT’s at 62.5%. If they had just approached they season averages, they would have been fine. Even with that loss dragging down their Last 10 and Trendline averages, they still rate as one of the 20 hottest teams heading into the tourney, and they’re doing it with balance, not with one outstanding unit trying to keep the other unit from sinking the ship. They’ve got a tough draw as a 9 seed, with a potential Ohio State matchup in the 2nd round, which puts a damper on any hopes of sneaking into the second weekend, but they should at least give BYU a good game and quiet all the talk of how they don’t belong in this tournament.

Points, assists, turnovers, blocks, and steals listed per 100 individual possessions

XAVIER PLAYER STATS

Name %Min eFG% FT% PPWS Pts A TO BS S OR% DR%
Burrell 78.5 48.4 81.6 1.08 25.7 4.8 3.6 0.3 1.4 1.3 6.4
Lavender 76.6 57.6 75.4 1.25 22.5 9.5 3.3 0.0 2.6 2.0 7.0
Cage 75.9 58.0 75.0 1.31 20.5 2.9 3.2 1.2 1.3 10.8 11.5
Doellman 66.3 56.1 78.4 1.22 31.1 3.9 3.8 2.6 2.1 7.2 17.9
Brown 42.6 72.1 69.3 1.47 22.8 2.9 4.4 2.2 1.8 9.8 17.5
Cole 42.5 52.7 69.8 1.20 20.7 2.4 5.2 0.9 1.3 13.5 20.5
Duncan 42.4 54.7 87.3 1.22 29.5 2.4 6.0 1.0 1.2 5.5 16.2
Raymond 33.1 54.5 40.9 1.08 18.8 2.8 1.4 0.6 1.7 8.3 11.6
Wolf 24.1 59.0 66.7 1.20 12.9 12.1 3.8 0.6 2.3 1.2 10.3

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