Florida enters the National Championship game off of a terrifically impressive offensive performance against UCLA. The Bruins reached the Final Four by making a pair of good offensive teams (Pittsburgh and Kansas) extremely impotent in San Jose. On the season, I have Florida as being slightly less than 10 percent better offensively than either Pittsburgh or Kansas. In their respective tournament games against UCLA, Florida was more than 31 percent better than either Pittsburgh or Kansas. This despite Taurean Green’s 2-9 FGA, 1-7 3PTA performance and Al Horford and Joakim Noah combining to make just 7 of 16 free throw attempts.

The Florida Gators are the best offensive team in college basketball.

I can make that statement unequivocally because the Ohio State Buckeyes eliminated the other contender for “best offensive team in college basketball (unofficial and subjective)” in their semi-final. Ohio State’s defensive performance against Georgetown was every bit as impressive as Florida’s offensive performance against UCLA.

Tonight, though, Ohio State will not get the benefit of facing 39 minutes of scoreless bench play (and not just scoreless, Georgetown’s reserves attempted only 2 shots in that time). Barring a Dan Werner cameo, at no point will Florida have a player on the court who is not both a capable and efficient scorer.

Ohio State will have to play various offensive lightweights (David Lighty, Matt Terwilliger, and, on his current form, if not his ability, Daequan Cook) for upwards of 20 percent of the game. This could be a deciding factor as Ohio State, despite being the better of the two teams defensively, will need a good offensive performance as well (as they had against Georgetown) to beat the Gators.

In their losses, Florida has struggled to guard athletic forwards. Julian Wright, Darrell Arthur, Al Thornton, and Derrick Byars each made significant contributions in their teams’ victories by attacking Horford and/or Noah individually. Ohio State doesn’t have a player like that on the roster. Both of the Florida big men are more effective using their length and athleticism as help defenders or as part of a zone than in one-on-one situations. Greg Oden will provide a different sort of defensive challenge, but I expect that Ohio State will rely a great deal on Mike Conley, Jr. using dribble penetration to create scoring opportunities for his teammates.

FIRST 5 GAMES ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Florida 76, Ohio St. 68
• Last 10 Prediction … Florida 70, Ohio St. 69
• Vs. Good Prediction … Florida 70, Ohio St. 69
• Trendline Prediction … Florida 73, Ohio St. 72
• Tourney So Far Prediction … Florida 78, Ohio St. 77

UPDATED GRAPHS

Florida team capsule

Ohio St. team capsule

UCLA will have a more difficult defensive task facing Florida than they did in the regional final against Kansas. Florida, like the Jayhawks, turns the ball over more often than ideal but they make far more shots, both from the field and from the free throw line than UCLA’s most recent vanquished foe. Which is nice for the Gators because the way UCLA is playing defense, a typically high level of offensive competency appears to be the necessary starting point if a team hopes not to embarrass itself.

Each of Florida’s starters averages at least 20 Pts/100. With the exception of Lee Humphrey, each of Florida’s starters averages at least 4.6 A/100. Taurean Green and Lee Humprey both make over 40% of their three-point attempts and 50% of their two-point attempts. Al Horford and Joakim Noah both make over 60% of their field goal attempts while getting 12.1% and 13.6% of possible offensive rebounds, respectively, while they’re on the court. Corey Brewer has slumped from behind the three-point line in the last three games (2-13) to bring his 3PTFG% down to 31.1, but he makes 55% of his two-point attempts, 71.4% of his free throws and averages 6.5 A/100.

That potent five is backed up by Walter Hodge (who comes off the bench to make half his threes, 58% of his twos (at a rate of 19.5 Pts/100), and chip in 5.1 A/100) and Chris Richard (who shoots 67.7% from the field, scoring 19.4 Pts/100, and getting 10.8% of possible offensive rebounds).

On the other hand, Florida won’t trouble UCLA with the degree of defensive pressure Kansas applied, either. Florida has allowed each of their last three opponents to score at least a point per possession and hasn’t forced turnovers on even 19% of their opponents’ possessions since they played Georgia in the SEC Tournament.

As it took a 62.2 eFG% performance, grabbing 41.7% of their offensive rebound opportunities, and Kansas fouling intentionally at the end of the game to get UCLA up to exactly one point per possession in the regional final, Florida’s inability to force turnovers could come in hand if UCLA fails to bring the Florida offense down to the Bruins’ level. UCLA could realistically halve the 36.8 TO% they posted in the regional final.

Florida’s defensive strengths lie in keeping their opponents off the free throw line and the offensive glass. UCLA doesn’t really excel in either of those areas typically. They beat Indiana and Pittsburgh despite getting just 25% of possible offensive rebounds over the two games. The Bruins’ good offensive performances are usually driven by good shooting and taking care of the ball, an obviously effective combination in general, but one that could, in particular, take advantage of Florida’s relative defensive weaknesses.

UCLA might not be playing this weekend were it not for Arron Afflalo’s ability to make tough shots. Unfortunately for Afflalo, he’ll attempt to continue to do so against the one wing who is unarguably a better defender than Brandon Rush.

Even if Brewer succeeds in keeping Afflalo from again shooting 76.6 eFG%, Josh Shipp and Darren Collison should improve their effectiveness and efficiency simply by not combining to turn the ball over 12 times again.

Largely unnoticed, UCLA has received excellent production in limited minutes from Michael Roll (4-6 FGA, 3-5 3PTA in 28 minutes) and Russell Westbrook (5-6 FGA in 15 minutes) off the bench over the last three games.

FIRST 4 GAMES ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Florida 65, UCLA 64
• Last 10 Prediction … Florida 64, UCLA 63
• Vs. Good Prediction … Florida 66, UCLA 65
• Trendline Prediction … Florida 61, UCLA 61
• Tourney So Far Prediction … UCLA 63, Florida 57

UPDATED GRAPHS

Florida team capsule

UCLA team capsule

Per Ken Pomeroy’s HD boxscores (and barring errors in my calculations), in the NCAA Tournament Ohio State is +37.4 points per 100 possessions when Greg Oden is on the floor and -20.5 points per 100 possessions when Greg Oden is off the floor. I’ve got a sneaky suspicion that everything that follows in this preview is simply padding.

Press on I will, though, to say that these teams enter the game dead-even across each of the efficiency breakdowns. Looking at the four factors for both teams, I have formulated the following four predictions:

1) Georgetown will shoot a higher percentage from the field than Ohio State.
2) Georgetown will turn the ball over far more frequently than Ohio State.
3) Georgetown will get a lot of offensive rebounds, but probably not as many as they usually do.
4) Ohio State will get far more offensive rebounds than they usually do.

It’s very unlikely that either team will significantly impair their opponent’s ability to score. Ohio State has been vulnerable to the three-point shot throughout the tournament. Georgetown’s proficiency in converting that shot could limit Greg Oden’s overall defensive impact.

However, it’s unlikely that Oden has no defensive impact in the game. To whatever degree Oden has the opportunity to block or alter shots, those shots figure to be taken by Georgetown’s two best scorers: Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert. Then again, those are the two Hoyas most likely to get Oden in foul trouble.

Even he doesn’t play a lot of minutes, Oden’s rebounding could be the deciding factor in the game. Georgetown both relies on their excellent offensive rebounding to make up for their turnovers and does a poor job of defensive rebounding. Any extra attention Oden draws (in addition to the extra rebounds he gathers) will be a boon to his one-and-a-half excellent rebounding teammates: Othello Hunter (15.8 OR%, 14.3 DR%) and Daequan Cook (4.6 OR%, 20.5 DR%).

I have a sneaking suspicion that Hunter, in particular, could provide us with a preview of the excellent 2007-08 season he figures to have should Mr. Oden leave for the NBA.

FIRST 4 GAMES ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Ohio St. 63, Georgetown 63
• Last 10 Prediction … Georgetown 60, Ohio St. 59
• Vs. Good Prediction … Ohio St. 63, Georgetown 63
• Trendline Prediction … Ohio St. 66, Georgetown 65
• Tourney So Far Prediction … Georgetown 69, Ohio St. 68

UPDATED GRAPHS

Ohio St. team capsule

Georgetown team capsule

Over the last 7 games, Oregon has averaged an eFG% of 59.5%, while holding their opponents to 45.2%. Compare that to their season averages of 53.4% and 49%, and you pretty much see the whole reason behind their recent success. In order to have a chance against Florida, they’re going to have to keep that up. Unlikely, because Florida is on an even better streak - since the start of the SEC tournament (6 games), Florida is averaging an eFG% of 59.9% while holding their opponents to 41.2%. That’s actually around their season average on offense, and a few points better on defense (they average 44.9%).

Oregon’s offensive success should really hinge on their 3-pt shooting. They shouldn’t turn the ball over much, as Florida doesn’t force many turnovers (19.4%, 264th), and Oregon doesn’t cough it up often (18.5%, 39th). They won’t get many 2nd chances, though, as Florida is 10th in the country in OR%, and Oregon has actually been below average recently. So there should be a lot of one-shot possessions for Oregon, and a LOT of those will be one 3-pt shot. The Ducks take 42.2% of their shots from 3-pt range (29th most), and hit them at a 39.1% rate (27th). Unfortunately for them, Florida allows the 2nd-lowest 3FG% in the country, at 28.9%. If they can hit shots despite Florida’s excellent perimeter defense, they have a chance. If not, they don’t.

When Florida has the ball, they should turn it over a little more often than Oregon, as Florida’s about average (20.5%, 125th) at turning it over, and Oregon’s about average at forcing them (21.5%, 148th). They should do decently on the offensive boards, though, to make up for it, as they’re better at rebounding at both ends of the floor than the Ducks. And unless something unexpected happens, they should shoot well. I doubt they’ll keep up their 59.5% eFG% average, but their offense is on an amazingly consistent, excellent streak, with 7 straight games of adjusted offensive efficiency of 125+. They should be able to keep their eFG% over 50%, and unless the Ducks are on fire from deep, that should be enough to win.

FIRST 3 GAMES ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Florida 75, Oregon 67
• Last 10 Prediction … Florida 71, Oregon 68
• Vs. Good Prediction … Florida 74, Oregon 67
• Trendline Prediction … Florida 70, Oregon 68
• Tourney So Far Prediction … Florida 78, Oregon 71

UPDATED GRAPHS

Florida team capsule

Oregon team capsule

The first thing that jumps out at me about this matchup is the difference in tempos - UNC is the ninth fastest team in the country, while Georgetown is the 9th slowest. You might assume that whichever team forces the game to be played at its tempo will come away with the win, but looking at the teams’ prior games shows that not to be true. All 6 of Carolina’s losses have come in games with 69 or more possessions. Georgetown has only played 2 games that fast all year. 5 of Georgetown’s 6 losses have come in games with 61 or less possessions. UNC has only played 1 game that slow all year. What seems most likely is that they’ll play a game with the possessions in that middle ground of 62-68. At those tempos, both teams are 6-0, and both played about 15% better than expected (based on season stats) on offense, and average on defense. So the tempo battle seems to be a wash.

Both teams have been absolutely dominating the offensive glass in the tourney so far, collecting at least 40% of their own misses in each game so far. On the defensive end, Georgetown has allowed their opponents to get offensive rebounds at about their season average, while UNC has been holding them 5% to 10% below average. I expect that to continue, meaning the Hoyas will need to take a little better care of the ball to make up for their fewer second chance possessions. Luckily for them, North Carolina is only average at forcing turnovers. Their 2nd round opponent, Michigan State, was a high-TO, high-OReb team, just like Georgetown. UNC allowed them to hold on to the ball better than usual, but did limit their offensive rebounds.

One thing I’m curious about is how many 3-pt shots UNC will shoot. They shoot only 25.2% of their shots from long range for the season (13th least), but Georgetown opponents shoot 38.5% of theirs from 3 (42nd most). In addition, the Hoyas hold teams to 30.5% on those threes (8th best), and Carolina is only slightly above average on them, at 36.1% (115th).

Both teams are playing well on offense and decent on defense, but Carolina has just a little more defensive consistency, and they have more offensive weapons, so they’re less susceptible to foul trouble. All the stats say this should be a narrow North Carolina victory, and I see no compelling reason to think otherwise. My guess is this is gonna be one more game where either team can win at the end if they just make their shots. (On that note, UNC fans should hope that Brandon Wright isn’t at the line needing to make a FT in the closing seconds.)

FIRST 3 GAMES ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … North Carolina 71, Georgetown 67
• Last 10 Prediction … North Carolina 69, Georgetown 67
• Vs. Good Prediction … North Carolina 70, Georgetown 67
• Trendline Prediction … North Carolina 71, Georgetown 71
• Tourney So Far Prediction … North Carolina 70, Georgetown 67

UPDATED GRAPHS

North Carolina team capsule

Georgetown team capsule

There’s a very good chance that this game (though it will likely be played at a faster pace, and thus, be higher scoring) will produce a lower rate of offensive efficiency than the Kansas/UCLA game. Neither Ohio State nor Memphis shoot the ball especially well (though Ohio State is clearly better both from the field and the line), though both compensate by taking good care of the ball. Memphis’s poor free throw shooting may not be much of a hindrance in this game as Ohio State does an excellent job of keeping their opponents off the free throw line.

Though Memphis is unquestionably a good team, two of their most important strengths (offensive rebounding and opponents’ turnover rate) are quite likely influenced to a significant degree by the vast talent gap between themselves and most of the teams on their schedule.

Ohio State is good both at taking care of the ball and keeping their opponents off the offensive glass. There’s no doubt Memphis is capable of performing better in both of these areas than the average Ohio State opponent, but it’s unlikely that the Tigers can match their typical performance, against their relatively low-level of competition on the season as a whole, in either area when playing Ohio State. Of course, in one game anything can happen.

The Memphis tendency most likely to cause Ohio State problems is the Tigers’s unwillingness to allow their opponents to attempt three-point shots. (On the year, just 28.8% of opponents’ attempts have come from behind the arc.) In their narrow wins over Xavier and Tennessee, Ohio State took 37.7% of their shots and made 39.5% of those attempts. Ron Lewis (53.6% of FGA are 3PTA), Jamar Butler (76% of FGA are 3PTA), and Ivan Harris (57.9% of FGA are 3PTA) will have to find atypical ways in which to maintain their scoring contributions.

It bears reminding that, prior to the unlikely events (missed Acie Law IV layup followed shortly thereafter by consecutive made free throws by Antonio Anderson) that secured Memphis’s narrow win over Texas A&M, the best team Memphis had beaten all season was Kentucky. In Maui. In November.

FIRST 3 GAMES ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Ohio St. 70, Memphis 68
• Last 10 Prediction … Ohio St. 67, Memphis 63
• Vs. Good Prediction … Ohio St. 69, Memphis 68
• Trendline Prediction … Ohio St. 65, Memphis 62
• Tourney So Far Prediction … Memphis 66, Ohio St. 64

UPDATED GRAPHS

Ohio St. team capsule

Memphis team capsule

This should look a whole lot like the previous round games for these teams. UCLA is playing the best defense in the tourney, and will try to slow down Kansas, just like Southern Illinois did.

The efficiency predictions look quite sensible. UCLA has played slightly better in the three NCAA Tournament games but Kansas was playing slightly better at the end of the regular season/during the conference tournament.

If Kansas can return to their normal levels of turnovers committed and defensive rebounds garnered, they’ll be dangerous for UCLA. Despite an outstanding defensive performance overall from Southern Illinois, Kansas did shoot 60.7 eFG% and that was their worst shooting performance of the tournament so far. UCLA (70.4 DR% on the season) should, however, be able to keep Kansas off the offensive glass when the Jayhawks do miss a shot.

The biggest problem UCLA will pose for Kansas is deciding which of Arron Afflalo or Josh Shipp Brandon Rush will guard down the stretch. Shipp’s numbers are certainly helped by the attention Afflalo draws from opposing defenses, but they aren’t really that different.

If it comes down to free throw shooting, expect both fan bases to be covering their eyes. Kansas and UCLA both shoot 66.3% from the line on the year.

FIRST 3 GAMES ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Kansas 65, UCLA 63
• Last 10 Prediction … Kansas 68, UCLA 63
• Vs. Good Prediction … Kansas 67, UCLA 66
• Trendline Prediction … Kansas 66, UCLA 61
• Tourney So Far Prediction … UCLA 62, Kansas 60

UPDATED GRAPHS

Kansas team capsule

UCLA team capsule

These two teams played way back on November 15th. It was the first game of the season for Vanderbilt, and the second for Georgetown (although the first against a non-cupcake). Georgetown won easily, 86-70, with Roy Hibbert turning in an 18 pt, 10 reb performance in only 22 minutes. SEC POY Derrick Byars scored 14, and didn’t do much else. I wouldn’t take too much away from that one game, though. That was the pre-ridiculous Georgetown offense, and a Vandy team that had yet to find any kind of offensive or defensive consistency.

OK, so it’s still the same Vandy defense. Yes, their defense was one of the better units in the tournament in the first two rounds, but this is a group just four games removed from a streak of 3 consecutive games where they allowed their opponent a 60+ eFG%. Which is BAD, very BAD. I have no confidence in their ability to stay at this level, especially because Georgetown is the 4th best shooting team in the country (56.9 eFG%). Georgetown also is a killer offensive rebounding team (40.4%, 7th in the country), while Vandy is only average on the defensive boards. Georgetown’s strengths on offense match up with Vanderbilt’s weaknesses on defense.

The one bright spot for Vandy is that the Hoyas turn the ball over a lot (22.3% TO%, 227th), while the Commodores’ only top 100 rating in a defensive category other than FT rate is in steal percentage (10.8%, 96th). Still, the Georgetown offense should roll. They’ll turn it over like they always do, but on the possessions where they hang on to the ball they’ll shoot well, and rebound many of their misses.

When Vanderbilt has the ball, they’ll need to take full advantage to try to keep up with Georgetown. The Vanderbilt offense works by taking good care of the ball and shooting well. Georgetown doesn’t force many turnovers, so the first part should be easy. The second part, not so much. The Hoyas have the 10th best eFG% defense in the country (44%).

Vanderbilt takes 42.5% of their shots from behind the arc (27th), and shoots them fairly well (37.4%, 63rd). Unfortunately for them, Georgetown defends them even better (30.4%, 8th). When they do venture into the paint, the Commodores get blocked quite a lot (10%, 256th). Again, this plays right into a Hoya strength, as they are 11th in the nation in block percentage (15.8%).

No Georgetown preview would be complete without mentioning their slow pace, as they’re one of the slowest teams in the country (60.1 poss/40, 328th). Vanderbilt is an average-paced team that tends to falter once the pace gets into the mid 70’s (they’re 2-5 when the pace is 72 or higher). But against Georgetown they may want to try to push it that high anyway, and the efficiency of Georgetown’s offense is strongly correlated to how slow they play.

Even at a fast pace, I don’t see how Vandy can possibly pull this one out. Georgetown’s strengths and Vanderbilt’s weaknesses match up perfectly, and Vandy’s recent good defensive streak is predicated on their opponents’ poor shooting, which won’t continue in this game. It looks to me like Vanderbilt is going to both begin and end their season with a loss to Georgetown, and it won’t be as close as the statistical projections think it will.

FIRST 2 GAMES ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Georgetown 69, Vanderbilt 61
• Last 10 Prediction … Georgetown 68, Vanderbilt 60
• Vs. Good Prediction … Georgetown 71, Vanderbilt 62
• Trendline Prediction … Georgetown 72, Vanderbilt 64
• Best 6 Prediction … Georgetown 70, Vanderbilt 62

UPDATED GRAPHS

Georgetown team capsule

Vanderbilt team capsule

So far USC has been the most impressive team in the tournament. Their offense has been on par with UNC’s, and their defense has been substantially better. They’ve done it by 1) crashing the offensive boards, 2) not turning the ball over, and 3) shutting down the other team’s point guards. These may be good signs, as 1) UNC was dominated on the boards in their last 2 losses, 2) their main “weakness” on defense is that they only force turnovers at an average rate, and 3) well, just read the next paragraph.

On Sunday, USC’s Gabe Pruitt used his advantage in size and experience (he’s a 6′4″ junior) to frustrate and shut down DJ Augustin, the 5′11″ freshman point guard, and 3rd-leading scorer, for one of the most explosive offenses in the country. Guess who Pruitt will be guarding on Friday… Ty Lawson, the 5′11″ freshman point guard, and 4th-leading scorer, for one of the most explosive offenses in the country. Augustin finished 1-8 from the field, with as many turnovers as points (6 each). If Pruitt can force Lawson into a similarly dismal day, USC’s chances of pulling off an upset against North Carolina rise substantially. Unfortunately for the Trojans, Carolina has more weapons than Texas. Whereas Augustin was part of an essentially three-pronged attack, the Tarheels start 5 players who all contribute substantially to the offense. So shutting down Lawson won’t have the same crippling effect.

Besides their multi-dimensional offense, UNC also has one of the better defenses in the country, although one that has been in a bit of a lull since their loss at NC State a little over a month ago. Their main problem is that they’re letting opponents shoot better. They’re only 7-5 in games where the opponent has an eFG% of at least 50%, 23-1 otherwise. USC has broken that the 50% barrier in 12 of their past 15 games. In the last month, against teams who are as good or better than UNC in eFG% allowed, USC has shot above 50 eFG% in 4 out of 5 games.

As I mentioned earlier, North Carolina’s main “weakness” on defense is that they only force turnovers at an average rate. The opponent stat that happens to correlate most closely to wins and losses this year for USC is … TO% forced. Against major-conference opponents, USC is 4-8 against teams who force more turnovers on average than UNC. They’re 10-3 against teams who force less. Carolina’s right on the tipping point.

So while USC obviously has a tough task ahead of them, they are well-suited to take advantage of a couple of UNC’s weaknesses, and may have a surprise strength of their own in Pruitt’s defense. The score predictions indicate we should expect a 5 to 12 point Carolina win. I see it ending up a lot like the UNC-Michigan St. game - close in the 2nd half, but UNC pulls away late.

FIRST 2 GAMES ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … North Carolina 81, USC 69
• Last 10 Prediction … North Carolina 84, USC 74
• Vs. Good Prediction … North Carolina 81, USC 69
• Trendline Prediction … North Carolina 87, USC 82
• Best 6 Prediction … North Carolina 75, USC 63

UPDATED GRAPHS

North Carolina team capsule

USC team capsule

There are a lot of parallels between the Florida - Butler matchup and the Kansas - Southern Illinois matchup. Both are games between slow, steady mid-majors and much-celebrated BCS programs packed with superior athletes.

Butler’s hope in this game is completely dependent upon their ability to control pace, something they’ve done very well over the course of the season. Butler, remember, has beaten the likes of Gonzaga, Indiana, Purdue and Tennessee (by considerably more than the Buckeyes beat them). They can beat Florida, but they probably won’t. Florida should be able to score at will, and if Butler doesn’t get back defensively, Florida can run them ragged.

That being said, Florida hasn’t been guarding people very well lately, and Butler is a very efficient team offensively…they turn the ball over less than anyone in America. If Butler limits possessions and Florida suffers at all from poor shooting, this game could be closer than the below numbers predict.

FIRST 2 GAMES ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Florida 65, Butler 59
• Last 10 Prediction … Florida 68, Butler 61
• Vs. Good Prediction … Florida 67, Butler 60
• Trendline Prediction … Florida 64, Butler 57
• Best 6 Prediction … Florida 62, Butler 53

UPDATED GRAPHS

Florida team capsule

Butler team capsule