EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Duke 71, VCU 61
• Last 10 Prediction … Duke 76, VCU 64
• Vs. Good Prediction … Duke 69, VCU 60
• Trendline Prediction … Duke 79, VCU 64
• Best 6 Prediction … Duke 64, VCU 59

explanation

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

Duke’s main strength all year has been their defense, holding every single opponent below their average offensive efficiency through the first 29 games. But the last 3 games have been by far their worst stretch of the season. Maybe you can blame the last game on Gerald Henderson’s absence, but the two before that you can’t. They’ve been allowing a high eFG%, which probably means letting teams get free for easy shots. I heard an announcer say they struggle with “fast teams like UNC, Maryland, Florida St, Clemson” because they can’t keep up with them around screens and close to shooters. I don’t know how to define an fast team, but in 8 games against those teams, Duke’s best adjusted defensive efficiency is 89.0, while in their other 9 ACC games, they’ve done better than that 7 times. So apparently Duke fans should be hoping they avoid very fast teams in the NCAA tournament.

DUKE PLAYER STATS

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

It’s hard to get a handle on how this team will play in the NCAA tournament. Virginia Commonwealth started out the year doing very well, but their defense has declined quite a bit. Their first 10 games were all better than average defensive efforts, but they’ve only had 4 such outings in the last 13 games. Three of those were the most recent three games, though, so perhaps the team is putting more energy into their defense now that tournament play has started. The offense improved in mid-season, and was very good at its peak, but hasn’t put together a great offensive game in the last 6. If the offense and defense both have good games, VCU could very well pull an upset or two.

VCU PLAYER STATS