The first thing that jumps out at me about this matchup is the difference in tempos - UNC is the ninth fastest team in the country, while Georgetown is the 9th slowest. You might assume that whichever team forces the game to be played at its tempo will come away with the win, but looking at the teams’ prior games shows that not to be true. All 6 of Carolina’s losses have come in games with 69 or more possessions. Georgetown has only played 2 games that fast all year. 5 of Georgetown’s 6 losses have come in games with 61 or less possessions. UNC has only played 1 game that slow all year. What seems most likely is that they’ll play a game with the possessions in that middle ground of 62-68. At those tempos, both teams are 6-0, and both played about 15% better than expected (based on season stats) on offense, and average on defense. So the tempo battle seems to be a wash.

Both teams have been absolutely dominating the offensive glass in the tourney so far, collecting at least 40% of their own misses in each game so far. On the defensive end, Georgetown has allowed their opponents to get offensive rebounds at about their season average, while UNC has been holding them 5% to 10% below average. I expect that to continue, meaning the Hoyas will need to take a little better care of the ball to make up for their fewer second chance possessions. Luckily for them, North Carolina is only average at forcing turnovers. Their 2nd round opponent, Michigan State, was a high-TO, high-OReb team, just like Georgetown. UNC allowed them to hold on to the ball better than usual, but did limit their offensive rebounds.

One thing I’m curious about is how many 3-pt shots UNC will shoot. They shoot only 25.2% of their shots from long range for the season (13th least), but Georgetown opponents shoot 38.5% of theirs from 3 (42nd most). In addition, the Hoyas hold teams to 30.5% on those threes (8th best), and Carolina is only slightly above average on them, at 36.1% (115th).

Both teams are playing well on offense and decent on defense, but Carolina has just a little more defensive consistency, and they have more offensive weapons, so they’re less susceptible to foul trouble. All the stats say this should be a narrow North Carolina victory, and I see no compelling reason to think otherwise. My guess is this is gonna be one more game where either team can win at the end if they just make their shots. (On that note, UNC fans should hope that Brandon Wright isn’t at the line needing to make a FT in the closing seconds.)

FIRST 3 GAMES ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … North Carolina 71, Georgetown 67
• Last 10 Prediction … North Carolina 69, Georgetown 67
• Vs. Good Prediction … North Carolina 70, Georgetown 67
• Trendline Prediction … North Carolina 71, Georgetown 71
• Tourney So Far Prediction … North Carolina 70, Georgetown 67

UPDATED GRAPHS

North Carolina team capsule

Georgetown team capsule

These two teams played way back on November 15th. It was the first game of the season for Vanderbilt, and the second for Georgetown (although the first against a non-cupcake). Georgetown won easily, 86-70, with Roy Hibbert turning in an 18 pt, 10 reb performance in only 22 minutes. SEC POY Derrick Byars scored 14, and didn’t do much else. I wouldn’t take too much away from that one game, though. That was the pre-ridiculous Georgetown offense, and a Vandy team that had yet to find any kind of offensive or defensive consistency.

OK, so it’s still the same Vandy defense. Yes, their defense was one of the better units in the tournament in the first two rounds, but this is a group just four games removed from a streak of 3 consecutive games where they allowed their opponent a 60+ eFG%. Which is BAD, very BAD. I have no confidence in their ability to stay at this level, especially because Georgetown is the 4th best shooting team in the country (56.9 eFG%). Georgetown also is a killer offensive rebounding team (40.4%, 7th in the country), while Vandy is only average on the defensive boards. Georgetown’s strengths on offense match up with Vanderbilt’s weaknesses on defense.

The one bright spot for Vandy is that the Hoyas turn the ball over a lot (22.3% TO%, 227th), while the Commodores’ only top 100 rating in a defensive category other than FT rate is in steal percentage (10.8%, 96th). Still, the Georgetown offense should roll. They’ll turn it over like they always do, but on the possessions where they hang on to the ball they’ll shoot well, and rebound many of their misses.

When Vanderbilt has the ball, they’ll need to take full advantage to try to keep up with Georgetown. The Vanderbilt offense works by taking good care of the ball and shooting well. Georgetown doesn’t force many turnovers, so the first part should be easy. The second part, not so much. The Hoyas have the 10th best eFG% defense in the country (44%).

Vanderbilt takes 42.5% of their shots from behind the arc (27th), and shoots them fairly well (37.4%, 63rd). Unfortunately for them, Georgetown defends them even better (30.4%, 8th). When they do venture into the paint, the Commodores get blocked quite a lot (10%, 256th). Again, this plays right into a Hoya strength, as they are 11th in the nation in block percentage (15.8%).

No Georgetown preview would be complete without mentioning their slow pace, as they’re one of the slowest teams in the country (60.1 poss/40, 328th). Vanderbilt is an average-paced team that tends to falter once the pace gets into the mid 70’s (they’re 2-5 when the pace is 72 or higher). But against Georgetown they may want to try to push it that high anyway, and the efficiency of Georgetown’s offense is strongly correlated to how slow they play.

Even at a fast pace, I don’t see how Vandy can possibly pull this one out. Georgetown’s strengths and Vanderbilt’s weaknesses match up perfectly, and Vandy’s recent good defensive streak is predicated on their opponents’ poor shooting, which won’t continue in this game. It looks to me like Vanderbilt is going to both begin and end their season with a loss to Georgetown, and it won’t be as close as the statistical projections think it will.

FIRST 2 GAMES ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Georgetown 69, Vanderbilt 61
• Last 10 Prediction … Georgetown 68, Vanderbilt 60
• Vs. Good Prediction … Georgetown 71, Vanderbilt 62
• Trendline Prediction … Georgetown 72, Vanderbilt 64
• Best 6 Prediction … Georgetown 70, Vanderbilt 62

UPDATED GRAPHS

Georgetown team capsule

Vanderbilt team capsule

So far USC has been the most impressive team in the tournament. Their offense has been on par with UNC’s, and their defense has been substantially better. They’ve done it by 1) crashing the offensive boards, 2) not turning the ball over, and 3) shutting down the other team’s point guards. These may be good signs, as 1) UNC was dominated on the boards in their last 2 losses, 2) their main “weakness” on defense is that they only force turnovers at an average rate, and 3) well, just read the next paragraph.

On Sunday, USC’s Gabe Pruitt used his advantage in size and experience (he’s a 6′4″ junior) to frustrate and shut down DJ Augustin, the 5′11″ freshman point guard, and 3rd-leading scorer, for one of the most explosive offenses in the country. Guess who Pruitt will be guarding on Friday… Ty Lawson, the 5′11″ freshman point guard, and 4th-leading scorer, for one of the most explosive offenses in the country. Augustin finished 1-8 from the field, with as many turnovers as points (6 each). If Pruitt can force Lawson into a similarly dismal day, USC’s chances of pulling off an upset against North Carolina rise substantially. Unfortunately for the Trojans, Carolina has more weapons than Texas. Whereas Augustin was part of an essentially three-pronged attack, the Tarheels start 5 players who all contribute substantially to the offense. So shutting down Lawson won’t have the same crippling effect.

Besides their multi-dimensional offense, UNC also has one of the better defenses in the country, although one that has been in a bit of a lull since their loss at NC State a little over a month ago. Their main problem is that they’re letting opponents shoot better. They’re only 7-5 in games where the opponent has an eFG% of at least 50%, 23-1 otherwise. USC has broken that the 50% barrier in 12 of their past 15 games. In the last month, against teams who are as good or better than UNC in eFG% allowed, USC has shot above 50 eFG% in 4 out of 5 games.

As I mentioned earlier, North Carolina’s main “weakness” on defense is that they only force turnovers at an average rate. The opponent stat that happens to correlate most closely to wins and losses this year for USC is … TO% forced. Against major-conference opponents, USC is 4-8 against teams who force more turnovers on average than UNC. They’re 10-3 against teams who force less. Carolina’s right on the tipping point.

So while USC obviously has a tough task ahead of them, they are well-suited to take advantage of a couple of UNC’s weaknesses, and may have a surprise strength of their own in Pruitt’s defense. The score predictions indicate we should expect a 5 to 12 point Carolina win. I see it ending up a lot like the UNC-Michigan St. game - close in the 2nd half, but UNC pulls away late.

FIRST 2 GAMES ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … North Carolina 81, USC 69
• Last 10 Prediction … North Carolina 84, USC 74
• Vs. Good Prediction … North Carolina 81, USC 69
• Trendline Prediction … North Carolina 87, USC 82
• Best 6 Prediction … North Carolina 75, USC 63

UPDATED GRAPHS

North Carolina team capsule

USC team capsule

1st ROUND GAME ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Texas 74, USC 71
• Last 10 Prediction … Texas 79, USC 69
• Vs. Good Prediction … Texas 77, USC 72
• Trendline Prediction … Texas 82, USC 69
• Best 6 Prediction … Texas 74, USC 69

UPDATED GRAPHS

Texas team capsule

USC team capsule

Over the past 10 games, Boston College’s tempo has been lower than their season average, and it’s been trending downward. Against Georgetown, they’re going to want to reverse that trend, because the Hoyas’ offense is at its most efficient when they take their time. So their slightly faster pace against Texas Tech was a good sign. Their poor defense against the Red Raiders, however, was not.

Georgetown’s win over Belmont doesn’t tell us much, but it does continue their run of very solid performances. 12 of their past 13 games have garnered overall ratings higher than .95, which ought to be enough to beat Boston College most nights.

1st ROUND GAME ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Georgetown 69, Boston College 61
• Last 10 Prediction … Georgetown 66, Boston College 56
• Vs. Good Prediction … Georgetown 68, Boston College 60
• Trendline Prediction … Georgetown 67, Boston College 57
• Best 6 Prediction … Georgetown 69, Boston College 62

UPDATED GRAPHS

Georgetown team capsule

Boston College team capsule

1st ROUND GAME ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … North Carolina 71, Michigan St. 62
• Last 10 Prediction … North Carolina 67, Michigan St. 63
• Vs. Good Prediction … North Carolina 71, Michigan St. 62
• Trendline Prediction … North Carolina 66, Michigan St. 65
• Best 6 Prediction … North Carolina 65, Michigan St. 55

UPDATED GRAPHS

North Carolina team capsule

Michigan St. team capsule

1st ROUND GAME ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Washington St. 65, Vanderbilt 63
• Last 10 Prediction … Washington St. 63, Vanderbilt 61
• Vs. Good Prediction … Washington St. 67, Vanderbilt 63
• Trendline Prediction … Washington St. 71, Vanderbilt 70
• Best 6 Prediction … Washington St. 65, Vanderbilt 62

UPDATED GRAPHS

Washington St. team capsule

Vanderbilt team capsule

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Georgetown 72, Belmont 55
• Last 10 Prediction … Georgetown 73, Belmont 56
• Vs. Good Prediction … Georgetown 70, Belmont 52
• Trendline Prediction … Georgetown 76, Belmont 64
• Best 6 Prediction … Georgetown 78, Belmont 60

explanation

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

For a while Georgetown’s offense was humming along like an unstoppable juggernaut. They posted adjusted efficiencies over 130 in 8 out of 9 games, which is just ridiculous. The last 8 games, however, they’ve only reached that mark once. I’ve got no explanation for why they went on the sudden cold spell, but they may have figured it out themselves, because the last two games have been much better. If the Georgetown offense is back to its old ways, the Hoyas will be in good shape, because the defense is playing the best it has all year, mostly due to an improved eFG% allowed. Georgetwon’s overall rating in 11 of their past 12 games has been over .95, which is NCAA quality. That consistency will be needed in a title run.

Points, assists, turnovers, blocks, and steals listed per 100 individual possessions

GEORGETOWN PLAYER STATS

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

As you can say about a lot of automatic qualifiers, Belmont is playing its best basketball of the year right now. Their offense is at its peak and trending upwards, driven by Andy Wicke’s insane 3-py shooting (30 of 57 over the past 7 games). And their defense, while not actually playing much better on average, has been much more consistent, with adjusted efficiencies between 90 and 110 in each of the last 13 games. An important note: the last time Belmont played an above average team (one with a higher adj. offense than adj. defense) was 20 games ago. It’s hard to determine whether their “Vs. Good” numbers are low because they were playing badly a the beginning of the year, or if their numbers at the beginning of the year were low because they were playing tougher teams.

Points, assists, turnovers, blocks, and steals listed per 100 individual possessions

PLAYER STATS

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Boston College 72, Texas Tech 69
• Last 10 Prediction … Boston College 69, Texas Tech 62
• Vs. Good Prediction … Boston College 70, Texas Tech 66
• Trendline Prediction … Boston College 64, Texas Tech 56
• Best 6 Prediction … Boston College 66, Texas Tech 64

explanation

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

The big story for Boston College this year was Sean Williams getting kicked off the team for his shenanigans. As you might expect, losing a player who averaged 5 a ridiculous 5 blocks per game severely handicapped BC’s defense, and essentially eliminated any chance they had of being an elite team. Here are efficiency splits (offense/defense/overall) related to the absence of Williams (and Dudley):

• missing Dudley … 109.3 / 111.9 / .4328
• missing Williams … 119.6 / 99.8 / .8886
• missing neither … 119.0 / 89.8 / .9621

Without Williams, the offense must shoulder the entire load. It looked at first as if they might be OK, but the offense has sputtered in the past few games, and the outlook isn’t rosy heading into the tourney.

Points, assists, turnovers, blocks, and steals listed per 100 individual possessions

BOSTON COLLEGE PLAYER STATS

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

Texas Tech is one of the most confusing teams in the tournament. They can truly beat anyone or lose to anyone, as evidenced by one of the weirdest 8-game stretches in recent memory. They went 3-5 from January 20th to February 13th. The 5 losses: Missouri, Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Oklahoma St. The 3 wins: Kansas, Texas A&M, Texas A&M. That inconsistency shows up in the graph. They’re not playing so hot entering the tournament, but in their case, that doesn’t seem to matter.

Points, assists, turnovers, blocks, and steals listed per 100 individual possessions

TEXAS TECH PLAYER STATS

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Washington St. 65, Oral Roberts 57
• Last 10 Prediction … Washington St. 65, Oral Roberts 56
• Vs. Good Prediction … Washington St. 65, Oral Roberts 56
• Trendline Prediction … Washington St. 68, Oral Roberts 61
• Best 6 Prediction … Washington St. 66, Oral Roberts 55

explanation

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

Washington State is the proud recipient of a 3 seed in the NCAA tournament, but if they play the way they have been recently, they certainly won’t live up to the expectations that come along with the seed. Their defense is on an upward march, driven by a rise in opponents’ eFG% (usually an indicator of open looks and easy layups) and their offense has lost the consistency it seemed to have at midseason. Only one of their past 6 games has garnered an overall rating of .95 (NCAA quality). Part of their problem may be that 3 players who average at least 10 minutes a game have missed significant time this season (C Aron Baynes, G Nikola Koprivica, and G Chris Matthews), making it difficult to maintain a consistent rotation. Only Baynes played in the last game, so I assume he will be the only one playing in the tourney.

PLAYER STATS

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

Oral Roberts’s strength at the beginning of their year was their defense, which played better than average in 19 of the first 20 games, and held Kansas to one of their worst offensive performances of the year. Since then, however, the unit has played worse than average in 8 of 12 games, and got torched by Centenary. They seem to have lost their ability to force turnovers, and to keep teams from getting easy shots. Luckily their offense is slightly better recently, posting adjusted efficiencies above 110 in 5 of the last 8 games. If they can maintain that offensive level while recapturing their previous defensive efficiency, they could pull an upset.

ORAL ROBERTS PLAYER STATS