Archive for the 'Eastern Kentucky' Category

Upsets By The Numbers

Mar 14, 2007 in monologue, Winthrop, Niagara, Arizona, Purdue, Notre Dame, TAMUCC, Virginia Tech, Illinois, VCU, Pittsburgh, Wright St., North Carolina, Eastern Kentucky, USC, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, George Washington, Georgetown, Belmont, Virginia, Albany, Stanford, Nevada, Creighton, Game-Probability Predictions, Trendline Analysis

When I fill out a bracket for an NCAA tournament pool (entered for pride only, no $$ exchanged of course), I’m obviously hoping in vain to get every game right. Not gonna happen. I have two other main goals (besides winning the pool): picking the Final Four correctly, and calling the first round […]

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North Carolina - Eastern Kentucky Preview

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

  • Full Season Prediction … North Carolina 85, Eastern Kentucky 56
  • Last 10 Prediction … North Carolina 75, Eastern Kentucky 54
  • Vs. Good Prediction … North Carolina 85, Eastern Kentucky 54
  • Trendline Prediction … North Carolina 66, Eastern Kentucky 56
  • Best 6 Prediction … North Carolina 80, Eastern Kentucky 50

explanation

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

  Tempo Rnk Offense Rnk Defense Rnk Overall Rnk
Overall 73.0 1 123.4 2 84.1 2 .9880 1
Vs. Good 72.6 4 123.4 5 84.6 2 .9872 1
Trendline 68.4 15 126.8 6 94.8 29 .9660 13
Last 10 69.9 3 125.7 1 89.1 12 .9812 3
Best 6 71.8 1 122.5 21 74.0 1 .9970 2

When the Tarheels are playing there best game, there is no more dominating team in the country. (OK, so technically they’re ranked 2nd to Kansas in the “Best 6″ efficiency, but their best streak has come against much tougher competition.) And they have played their best game more than any other team in the nation. An adjusted game rating over .99 essentially means that a team played well enough that day to have a shot at beating any team in the country. North Carolina has 17 such games, most in the NCAA. 2nd place is Florida with 13. The one big concern for UNC heading into the tournament is that their defense seems to have taken a step back. At midseason it was the best in the land, but now has slipped a bit, as shown by the unit’s #12 ranking over the last 10 games. Their offense is still #1, and they’re #3 overall, but if there’s a chink in the armor, it’s that. Some people are claiming that Carolina is inconsistent, and has had some random terrible games, but I think those people are just underestimating how difficult it is to win even against the bottom of the ACC this year (as shown in the ACC tourney).

Points, assists, turnovers, blocks, and steals listed per 100 individual possessions

NORTH CAROLINA PLAYER STATS

Name %Min eFG% FT% PPWS Pts A TO BS S OR% DR%
Hansbrough 73.4 52.6 76.6 1.22 33.3 2.1 3.7 0.8 2.2 12.0 17.0
Wright 65.7 66.2 54.5 1.31 30.0 2.1 3.2 3.5 1.9 8.2 16.0
Lawson 61.9 56.8 69.3 1.20 22.3 12.1 4.8 0.2 3.4 3.2 9.0
Ellington 59.4 53.5 83.9 1.13 27.6 4.9 2.8 0.1 1.8 3.3 9.1
Terry 53.6 57.3 75.3 1.22 23.7 4.5 4.6 1.7 1.9 7.1 20.7
Ginyard 39.4 49.5 78.3 1.12 13.6 5.1 3.8 0.5 3.6 14.1 10.2
Green 32.5 51.4 87.2 1.13 22.1 4.7 3.3 2.8 2.6 6.8 15.2
Thompson 29.5 55.2 62.9 1.14 20.2 2.0 4.7 1.9 2.3 8.7 12.6
Miller 26.8 47.0 73.3 0.99 13.1 6.2 2.1 0.0 1.8 1.3 3.7
Frasor 18.3 51.7 37.5 1.02 14.1 9.6 3.9 0.0 3.1 0.9 7.1
Stephenson 15.7 50.8 51.6 1.05 19.3 0.8 3.8 3.1 0.3 14.7 23.8

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

  Tempo Rnk Offense Rnk Defense Rnk Overall Rnk
Overall 62.0 60 99.0 63 103.4 58 .3790 63
Vs. Good 62.8 55 96.2 60 103.0 62 .3129 61
Trendline 57.7 61 101.6 61 89.9 17 .8030 48
Last 10 60.5 59 97.8 63 96.7 40 .5331 61
Best 6 63.0 51 102.3 60 98.1 57 .6188 61

On January 25th, Eastern Kentucky had lost 6 of 8 and was playing like the 260th-best team in the country. Since then they’ve won 11 of 13, and played like the 140th-best team. The improvement is almost entirely due to their defense, and that improvement is mostly due to holding teams to a lower eFG%. They’re still not a good team - over this 13-game “hot streak” they only played well enough to beat the 50th-rated team once.

Points, assists, turnovers, blocks, and steals listed per 100 individual possessions

EASTERN KENTUCKY PLAYER STATS

Name %Min eFG% FT% PPWS Pts A TO BS S OR% DR%
Leonard 86.1 57.9 81.8 1.20 23.6 5.1 3.8 0.1 2.8 1.5 8.4
Mascoll 84.9 58.9 55.0 1.19 20.6 9.1 7.8 1.1 4.0 3.1 12.2
Rose 82.0 56.7 76.6 1.20 30.6 3.6 3.5 0.3 3.1 4.0 11.0
Brock 71.9 48.7 66.1 1.07 11.2 2.8 3.4 0.7 1.3 8.2 15.8
Dialls 54.8 55.6 65.8 1.17 22.2 3.6 3.3 1.7 1.5 8.7 12.9
Douglas 51.0 56.3 73.3 1.20 19.4 3.6 3.2 2.1 2.2 13.9 15.4
Brown 22.6 45.1 75.0 0.93 11.6 3.1 5.0 0.2 1.9 1.0 11.0
Taylor 21.6 55.5 62.5 1.14 20.1 4.5 4.0 0.5 1.5 2.1 10.5
Daniel 18.9 41.3 63.6 0.86 23.4 1.4 2.5 0.3 1.4 3.6 7.4

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