Florida enters the National Championship game off of a terrifically impressive offensive performance against UCLA. The Bruins reached the Final Four by making a pair of good offensive teams (Pittsburgh and Kansas) extremely impotent in San Jose. On the season, I have Florida as being slightly less than 10 percent better offensively than either Pittsburgh or Kansas. In their respective tournament games against UCLA, Florida was more than 31 percent better than either Pittsburgh or Kansas. This despite Taurean Green’s 2-9 FGA, 1-7 3PTA performance and Al Horford and Joakim Noah combining to make just 7 of 16 free throw attempts.

The Florida Gators are the best offensive team in college basketball.

I can make that statement unequivocally because the Ohio State Buckeyes eliminated the other contender for “best offensive team in college basketball (unofficial and subjective)” in their semi-final. Ohio State’s defensive performance against Georgetown was every bit as impressive as Florida’s offensive performance against UCLA.

Tonight, though, Ohio State will not get the benefit of facing 39 minutes of scoreless bench play (and not just scoreless, Georgetown’s reserves attempted only 2 shots in that time). Barring a Dan Werner cameo, at no point will Florida have a player on the court who is not both a capable and efficient scorer.

Ohio State will have to play various offensive lightweights (David Lighty, Matt Terwilliger, and, on his current form, if not his ability, Daequan Cook) for upwards of 20 percent of the game. This could be a deciding factor as Ohio State, despite being the better of the two teams defensively, will need a good offensive performance as well (as they had against Georgetown) to beat the Gators.

In their losses, Florida has struggled to guard athletic forwards. Julian Wright, Darrell Arthur, Al Thornton, and Derrick Byars each made significant contributions in their teams’ victories by attacking Horford and/or Noah individually. Ohio State doesn’t have a player like that on the roster. Both of the Florida big men are more effective using their length and athleticism as help defenders or as part of a zone than in one-on-one situations. Greg Oden will provide a different sort of defensive challenge, but I expect that Ohio State will rely a great deal on Mike Conley, Jr. using dribble penetration to create scoring opportunities for his teammates.

FIRST 5 GAMES ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Florida 76, Ohio St. 68
• Last 10 Prediction … Florida 70, Ohio St. 69
• Vs. Good Prediction … Florida 70, Ohio St. 69
• Trendline Prediction … Florida 73, Ohio St. 72
• Tourney So Far Prediction … Florida 78, Ohio St. 77

UPDATED GRAPHS

Florida team capsule

Ohio St. team capsule

UCLA will have a more difficult defensive task facing Florida than they did in the regional final against Kansas. Florida, like the Jayhawks, turns the ball over more often than ideal but they make far more shots, both from the field and from the free throw line than UCLA’s most recent vanquished foe. Which is nice for the Gators because the way UCLA is playing defense, a typically high level of offensive competency appears to be the necessary starting point if a team hopes not to embarrass itself.

Each of Florida’s starters averages at least 20 Pts/100. With the exception of Lee Humphrey, each of Florida’s starters averages at least 4.6 A/100. Taurean Green and Lee Humprey both make over 40% of their three-point attempts and 50% of their two-point attempts. Al Horford and Joakim Noah both make over 60% of their field goal attempts while getting 12.1% and 13.6% of possible offensive rebounds, respectively, while they’re on the court. Corey Brewer has slumped from behind the three-point line in the last three games (2-13) to bring his 3PTFG% down to 31.1, but he makes 55% of his two-point attempts, 71.4% of his free throws and averages 6.5 A/100.

That potent five is backed up by Walter Hodge (who comes off the bench to make half his threes, 58% of his twos (at a rate of 19.5 Pts/100), and chip in 5.1 A/100) and Chris Richard (who shoots 67.7% from the field, scoring 19.4 Pts/100, and getting 10.8% of possible offensive rebounds).

On the other hand, Florida won’t trouble UCLA with the degree of defensive pressure Kansas applied, either. Florida has allowed each of their last three opponents to score at least a point per possession and hasn’t forced turnovers on even 19% of their opponents’ possessions since they played Georgia in the SEC Tournament.

As it took a 62.2 eFG% performance, grabbing 41.7% of their offensive rebound opportunities, and Kansas fouling intentionally at the end of the game to get UCLA up to exactly one point per possession in the regional final, Florida’s inability to force turnovers could come in hand if UCLA fails to bring the Florida offense down to the Bruins’ level. UCLA could realistically halve the 36.8 TO% they posted in the regional final.

Florida’s defensive strengths lie in keeping their opponents off the free throw line and the offensive glass. UCLA doesn’t really excel in either of those areas typically. They beat Indiana and Pittsburgh despite getting just 25% of possible offensive rebounds over the two games. The Bruins’ good offensive performances are usually driven by good shooting and taking care of the ball, an obviously effective combination in general, but one that could, in particular, take advantage of Florida’s relative defensive weaknesses.

UCLA might not be playing this weekend were it not for Arron Afflalo’s ability to make tough shots. Unfortunately for Afflalo, he’ll attempt to continue to do so against the one wing who is unarguably a better defender than Brandon Rush.

Even if Brewer succeeds in keeping Afflalo from again shooting 76.6 eFG%, Josh Shipp and Darren Collison should improve their effectiveness and efficiency simply by not combining to turn the ball over 12 times again.

Largely unnoticed, UCLA has received excellent production in limited minutes from Michael Roll (4-6 FGA, 3-5 3PTA in 28 minutes) and Russell Westbrook (5-6 FGA in 15 minutes) off the bench over the last three games.

FIRST 4 GAMES ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Florida 65, UCLA 64
• Last 10 Prediction … Florida 64, UCLA 63
• Vs. Good Prediction … Florida 66, UCLA 65
• Trendline Prediction … Florida 61, UCLA 61
• Tourney So Far Prediction … UCLA 63, Florida 57

UPDATED GRAPHS

Florida team capsule

UCLA team capsule

Per Ken Pomeroy’s HD boxscores (and barring errors in my calculations), in the NCAA Tournament Ohio State is +37.4 points per 100 possessions when Greg Oden is on the floor and -20.5 points per 100 possessions when Greg Oden is off the floor. I’ve got a sneaky suspicion that everything that follows in this preview is simply padding.

Press on I will, though, to say that these teams enter the game dead-even across each of the efficiency breakdowns. Looking at the four factors for both teams, I have formulated the following four predictions:

1) Georgetown will shoot a higher percentage from the field than Ohio State.
2) Georgetown will turn the ball over far more frequently than Ohio State.
3) Georgetown will get a lot of offensive rebounds, but probably not as many as they usually do.
4) Ohio State will get far more offensive rebounds than they usually do.

It’s very unlikely that either team will significantly impair their opponent’s ability to score. Ohio State has been vulnerable to the three-point shot throughout the tournament. Georgetown’s proficiency in converting that shot could limit Greg Oden’s overall defensive impact.

However, it’s unlikely that Oden has no defensive impact in the game. To whatever degree Oden has the opportunity to block or alter shots, those shots figure to be taken by Georgetown’s two best scorers: Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert. Then again, those are the two Hoyas most likely to get Oden in foul trouble.

Even he doesn’t play a lot of minutes, Oden’s rebounding could be the deciding factor in the game. Georgetown both relies on their excellent offensive rebounding to make up for their turnovers and does a poor job of defensive rebounding. Any extra attention Oden draws (in addition to the extra rebounds he gathers) will be a boon to his one-and-a-half excellent rebounding teammates: Othello Hunter (15.8 OR%, 14.3 DR%) and Daequan Cook (4.6 OR%, 20.5 DR%).

I have a sneaking suspicion that Hunter, in particular, could provide us with a preview of the excellent 2007-08 season he figures to have should Mr. Oden leave for the NBA.

FIRST 4 GAMES ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Ohio St. 63, Georgetown 63
• Last 10 Prediction … Georgetown 60, Ohio St. 59
• Vs. Good Prediction … Ohio St. 63, Georgetown 63
• Trendline Prediction … Ohio St. 66, Georgetown 65
• Tourney So Far Prediction … Georgetown 69, Ohio St. 68

UPDATED GRAPHS

Ohio St. team capsule

Georgetown team capsule