Archive for the 'George Washington' Category

Upsets By The Numbers

Mar 14, 2007 in monologue, Winthrop, Niagara, Arizona, Purdue, Notre Dame, TAMUCC, Virginia Tech, Illinois, VCU, Pittsburgh, Wright St., North Carolina, Eastern Kentucky, USC, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, George Washington, Georgetown, Belmont, Virginia, Albany, Stanford, Nevada, Creighton, Game-Probability Predictions, Trendline Analysis

When I fill out a bracket for an NCAA tournament pool (entered for pride only, no $$ exchanged of course), I’m obviously hoping in vain to get every game right. Not gonna happen. I have two other main goals (besides winning the pool): picking the Final Four correctly, and calling the first round […]

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Vanderbilt - George Washington

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

  • Full Season Prediction … Vanderbilt 73, George Washington 68
  • Last 10 Prediction … Vanderbilt 70, George Washington 65
  • Vs. Good Prediction … Vanderbilt 75, George Washington 69
  • Trendline Prediction … George Washington 73, Vanderbilt 67
  • Best 6 Prediction … Vanderbilt 68, George Washington 60

explanation

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

  Tempo Rnk Offense Rnk Defense Rnk Overall Rnk
Overall 67.5 26 116.4 21 96.2 44 .9000 37
Vs. Good 67.2 27 118.4 18 98.7 56 .8905 40
Trendline 67.9 19 122.3 14 107.3 60 .8188 46
Last 10 65.5 32 119.0 23 99.7 49 .8850 39
Best 6 65.0 40 124.6 17 91.8 48 .9709 35

Vanderbilt’s offense is playing well, and trending upwards, but their defense has been terrible all year. That kind of imbalance is rarely rewarded come tournament time. Lucky for them their 1st round opponent is a George Washington team that has a lot of trouble putting the ball in the basket, or else they’d be an ideal upset-victim pick. They may still be. On the other hand, if they get some hot shooting, they could West Virginia their way into the Elite 8.

PLAYER STATS

Name %Min eFG% FT% PPWS Pts A TO BS S OR% DR%
Foster 80.1 53.5 84.7 1.15 28.2 4.4 3.3 0.7 2.3 5.3 12.4
Byard 76.9 54.3 69.6 1.14 31.9 6.3 4.6 0.2 2.6 6.1 12.7
Cage 70.0 60.9 87.1 1.31 22.9 4.2 2.2 0.2 1.9 2.9 9.5
Neltner 61.0 55.0 69.3 1.18 22.3 5.1 3.7 1.1 1.9 8.0 19.1
Gordon 58.8 53.3 75.4 1.15 19.7 7.9 3.3 0.2 1.8 1.0 10.0
Beal 41.7 37.2 83.3 0.98 13.0 6.0 5.0 0.1 3.3 1.6 11.3
Skuchas 37.4 55.6 52.3 1.13 14.6 1.6 2.7 3.3 0.4 8.6 8.7
Brown 33.3 52.3 40.0 1.03 14.3 2.6 2.6 1.0 1.4 7.0 15.3
Drake 24.8 44.6 44.4 0.90 14.5 3.3 4.3 1.0 3.3 6.2 10.5

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

  Tempo Rnk Offense Rnk Defense Rnk Overall Rnk
Overall 67.7 25 104.8 54 93.9 37 .7810 48
Vs. Good 66.5 32 106.0 51 97.1 51 .7341 52
Trendline 66.2 27 102.7 60 82.5 4 .9252 25
Last 10 66.6 21 102.6 60 91.2 22 .7944 49
Best 6 66.5 29 103.3 59 86.2 26 .8896 50

George Washington has been trending towards excellent defense over the past few games. They also played well at the beginning of the season. The common thread between those games is that they’ve forced a lot of turnovers in each of those stretches. The offense hasn’t put together a really great effort all year, so they’ll need to maintain that turnover prowess to have any shot at pulling an upset, and frankly I’m not so sure that’s going to happen against the tougher competition they’ll face.

PLAYER STATS

Name %Min eFG% FT% PPWS Pts A TO BS S OR% DR%
Elliott 86.8 44.5 77.7 1.01 22.7 8.6 6.0 0.3 4.6 4.0 13.4
Rice 86.3 53.5 72.6 1.12 28.3 3.7 3.1 0.2 2.4 4.0 8.6
Koundjia 68.1 48.8 66.7 1.08 16.3 3.4 4.1 0.9 3.2 6.6 15.1
Diggs 63.9 54.9 74.5 1.19 25.3 2.6 3.6 4.6 1.5 10.4 13.5
Akingbade 57.2 55.2 57.4 1.13 19.3 2.6 2.0 2.0 1.0 11.8 16.6
King 54.8 47.7 69.8 1.02 15.4 6.7 5.1 0.6 4.1 3.4 7.1
Hollis 38.9 61.2 63.6 1.24 20.3 3.5 4.9 2.4 1.9 7.5 16.1
Wilmore 21.9 46.3 75.0 0.97 18.7 2.2 2.0 0.4 3.3 5.5 4.8
Moore 15.2 50.0 66.7 1.07 22.0 2.6 4.8 1.0 2.2 6.4 10.0

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