Per Ken Pomeroy’s HD boxscores (and barring errors in my calculations), in the NCAA Tournament Ohio State is +37.4 points per 100 possessions when Greg Oden is on the floor and -20.5 points per 100 possessions when Greg Oden is off the floor. I’ve got a sneaky suspicion that everything that follows in this preview is simply padding.

Press on I will, though, to say that these teams enter the game dead-even across each of the efficiency breakdowns. Looking at the four factors for both teams, I have formulated the following four predictions:

1) Georgetown will shoot a higher percentage from the field than Ohio State.
2) Georgetown will turn the ball over far more frequently than Ohio State.
3) Georgetown will get a lot of offensive rebounds, but probably not as many as they usually do.
4) Ohio State will get far more offensive rebounds than they usually do.

It’s very unlikely that either team will significantly impair their opponent’s ability to score. Ohio State has been vulnerable to the three-point shot throughout the tournament. Georgetown’s proficiency in converting that shot could limit Greg Oden’s overall defensive impact.

However, it’s unlikely that Oden has no defensive impact in the game. To whatever degree Oden has the opportunity to block or alter shots, those shots figure to be taken by Georgetown’s two best scorers: Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert. Then again, those are the two Hoyas most likely to get Oden in foul trouble.

Even he doesn’t play a lot of minutes, Oden’s rebounding could be the deciding factor in the game. Georgetown both relies on their excellent offensive rebounding to make up for their turnovers and does a poor job of defensive rebounding. Any extra attention Oden draws (in addition to the extra rebounds he gathers) will be a boon to his one-and-a-half excellent rebounding teammates: Othello Hunter (15.8 OR%, 14.3 DR%) and Daequan Cook (4.6 OR%, 20.5 DR%).

I have a sneaking suspicion that Hunter, in particular, could provide us with a preview of the excellent 2007-08 season he figures to have should Mr. Oden leave for the NBA.

FIRST 4 GAMES ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Ohio St. 63, Georgetown 63
• Last 10 Prediction … Georgetown 60, Ohio St. 59
• Vs. Good Prediction … Ohio St. 63, Georgetown 63
• Trendline Prediction … Ohio St. 66, Georgetown 65
• Tourney So Far Prediction … Georgetown 69, Ohio St. 68

UPDATED GRAPHS

Ohio St. team capsule

Georgetown team capsule

The first thing that jumps out at me about this matchup is the difference in tempos - UNC is the ninth fastest team in the country, while Georgetown is the 9th slowest. You might assume that whichever team forces the game to be played at its tempo will come away with the win, but looking at the teams’ prior games shows that not to be true. All 6 of Carolina’s losses have come in games with 69 or more possessions. Georgetown has only played 2 games that fast all year. 5 of Georgetown’s 6 losses have come in games with 61 or less possessions. UNC has only played 1 game that slow all year. What seems most likely is that they’ll play a game with the possessions in that middle ground of 62-68. At those tempos, both teams are 6-0, and both played about 15% better than expected (based on season stats) on offense, and average on defense. So the tempo battle seems to be a wash.

Both teams have been absolutely dominating the offensive glass in the tourney so far, collecting at least 40% of their own misses in each game so far. On the defensive end, Georgetown has allowed their opponents to get offensive rebounds at about their season average, while UNC has been holding them 5% to 10% below average. I expect that to continue, meaning the Hoyas will need to take a little better care of the ball to make up for their fewer second chance possessions. Luckily for them, North Carolina is only average at forcing turnovers. Their 2nd round opponent, Michigan State, was a high-TO, high-OReb team, just like Georgetown. UNC allowed them to hold on to the ball better than usual, but did limit their offensive rebounds.

One thing I’m curious about is how many 3-pt shots UNC will shoot. They shoot only 25.2% of their shots from long range for the season (13th least), but Georgetown opponents shoot 38.5% of theirs from 3 (42nd most). In addition, the Hoyas hold teams to 30.5% on those threes (8th best), and Carolina is only slightly above average on them, at 36.1% (115th).

Both teams are playing well on offense and decent on defense, but Carolina has just a little more defensive consistency, and they have more offensive weapons, so they’re less susceptible to foul trouble. All the stats say this should be a narrow North Carolina victory, and I see no compelling reason to think otherwise. My guess is this is gonna be one more game where either team can win at the end if they just make their shots. (On that note, UNC fans should hope that Brandon Wright isn’t at the line needing to make a FT in the closing seconds.)

FIRST 3 GAMES ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … North Carolina 71, Georgetown 67
• Last 10 Prediction … North Carolina 69, Georgetown 67
• Vs. Good Prediction … North Carolina 70, Georgetown 67
• Trendline Prediction … North Carolina 71, Georgetown 71
• Tourney So Far Prediction … North Carolina 70, Georgetown 67

UPDATED GRAPHS

North Carolina team capsule

Georgetown team capsule

These two teams played way back on November 15th. It was the first game of the season for Vanderbilt, and the second for Georgetown (although the first against a non-cupcake). Georgetown won easily, 86-70, with Roy Hibbert turning in an 18 pt, 10 reb performance in only 22 minutes. SEC POY Derrick Byars scored 14, and didn’t do much else. I wouldn’t take too much away from that one game, though. That was the pre-ridiculous Georgetown offense, and a Vandy team that had yet to find any kind of offensive or defensive consistency.

OK, so it’s still the same Vandy defense. Yes, their defense was one of the better units in the tournament in the first two rounds, but this is a group just four games removed from a streak of 3 consecutive games where they allowed their opponent a 60+ eFG%. Which is BAD, very BAD. I have no confidence in their ability to stay at this level, especially because Georgetown is the 4th best shooting team in the country (56.9 eFG%). Georgetown also is a killer offensive rebounding team (40.4%, 7th in the country), while Vandy is only average on the defensive boards. Georgetown’s strengths on offense match up with Vanderbilt’s weaknesses on defense.

The one bright spot for Vandy is that the Hoyas turn the ball over a lot (22.3% TO%, 227th), while the Commodores’ only top 100 rating in a defensive category other than FT rate is in steal percentage (10.8%, 96th). Still, the Georgetown offense should roll. They’ll turn it over like they always do, but on the possessions where they hang on to the ball they’ll shoot well, and rebound many of their misses.

When Vanderbilt has the ball, they’ll need to take full advantage to try to keep up with Georgetown. The Vanderbilt offense works by taking good care of the ball and shooting well. Georgetown doesn’t force many turnovers, so the first part should be easy. The second part, not so much. The Hoyas have the 10th best eFG% defense in the country (44%).

Vanderbilt takes 42.5% of their shots from behind the arc (27th), and shoots them fairly well (37.4%, 63rd). Unfortunately for them, Georgetown defends them even better (30.4%, 8th). When they do venture into the paint, the Commodores get blocked quite a lot (10%, 256th). Again, this plays right into a Hoya strength, as they are 11th in the nation in block percentage (15.8%).

No Georgetown preview would be complete without mentioning their slow pace, as they’re one of the slowest teams in the country (60.1 poss/40, 328th). Vanderbilt is an average-paced team that tends to falter once the pace gets into the mid 70’s (they’re 2-5 when the pace is 72 or higher). But against Georgetown they may want to try to push it that high anyway, and the efficiency of Georgetown’s offense is strongly correlated to how slow they play.

Even at a fast pace, I don’t see how Vandy can possibly pull this one out. Georgetown’s strengths and Vanderbilt’s weaknesses match up perfectly, and Vandy’s recent good defensive streak is predicated on their opponents’ poor shooting, which won’t continue in this game. It looks to me like Vanderbilt is going to both begin and end their season with a loss to Georgetown, and it won’t be as close as the statistical projections think it will.

FIRST 2 GAMES ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Georgetown 69, Vanderbilt 61
• Last 10 Prediction … Georgetown 68, Vanderbilt 60
• Vs. Good Prediction … Georgetown 71, Vanderbilt 62
• Trendline Prediction … Georgetown 72, Vanderbilt 64
• Best 6 Prediction … Georgetown 70, Vanderbilt 62

UPDATED GRAPHS

Georgetown team capsule

Vanderbilt team capsule