Archive for the 'Gonzaga' Category

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Indiana - Gonzaga Preview

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

  • Full Season Prediction … Indiana 74, Gonzaga 69
  • Last 10 Prediction … Indiana 73, Gonzaga 68
  • Vs. Good Prediction … Indiana 76, Gonzaga 71
  • Trendline Prediction … Gonzaga 70, Indiana 69
  • Best 6 Prediction … Indiana 78, Gonzaga 73

explanation

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

  Tempo Rnk Offense Rnk Defense Rnk Overall Rnk
Overall 65.5 44 119.4 9 92.4 28 .9510 18
Vs. Good 64.9 41 118.8 15 92.1 25 .9487 18
Trendline 65.0 38 114.7 36 98.0 42 .8587 43
Last 10 65.0 38 119.6 19 96.4 37 .9230 27
Best 6 63.7 47 135.7 1 94.6 51 .9844 18

Indiana has quietly put together a great offensive season. They’ve topped 130 in adjusted offensive efficiency 9 times (compare to: Texas 11, Georgetown 10, UNC 10). Too bad for them it’s only happened once in the last 10 games. Over that span, Indiana’s defense hasn’t been turning in any dominating performances, but it’s been pretty consistent. If Indiana can get back to their midseason offensive levels, they can become a dangerous team. Unfortunately, the offense is trending down, and the defense trending up, and that is dangerous for Indiana instead of their opponents.

INDIANA PLAYER STATS

Name %Min eFG% FT% PPWS Pts A TO BS S OR% DR%
DJ White 78.5 51.6 68.1 1.12 27.4 2.4 3.9 4.3 1.8 9.6 18.1
Wilmont 73.7 54.3 66.7 1.11 26.5 2.2 3.0 0.9 2.4 7.0 17.6
Bassett 67.5 48.9 82.4 1.09 22.6 7.0 4.0 0.1 1.8 2.4 8.9
Calloway 61.2 52.0 82.4 1.20 21.8 10.0 5.1 0.4 2.9 1.2 12.9
Stemler 54.8 50.3 79.3 1.07 17.3 2.2 2.5 0.6 1.7 8.3 12.3
Ratliff 52.4 59.8 67.6 1.22 27.3 4.2 4.2 1.2 2.5 5.5 7.3
Shaw 32.0 51.1 74.2 1.17 22.9 2.9 5.2 1.6 1.8 7.4 11.0
M White 25.4 51.6 53.8 1.08 18.9 1.4 2.9 2.1 2.5 9.3 14.3
Suhr 20.7 50.0 61.5 1.05 11.6 4.0 3.0 0.0 2.0 7.2 9.0
Allen 17.5 33.3 33.3 0.67 5.7 2.7 4.8 1.8 0.9 10.0 11.3
Keeling 14.9 56.0 54.5 1.15 14.0 2.4 2.8 1.4 1.8 8.3 8.3

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

  Tempo Rnk Offense Rnk Defense Rnk Overall Rnk
Overall 68.1 22 114.9 28 96.2 44 .8860 40
Vs. Good 69.1 13 117.4 23 97.6 53 .8936 38
Trendline 64.7 40 115.7 29 97.0 36 .8831 36
Last 10 65.3 35 113.6 39 98.4 46 .8388 45
Best 6 69.9 11 118.3 28 87.7 32 .9690 36

A couple of pretty impressive wins anchored Gonzaga’s nonconference schedule (over North Carolina and Texas on neutral courts), but their offense and defense have both gotten a little worse since then. They’ve been without 2nd-leading scorer Josh Heytfelt since February 10th due to his suspension for a drug-related incident. He’s not going to be with the team during the tournament, so it’s important to look at what his loss has done to the team’s performance:

  • 8 games since losing Heytvelt … 115.9/99.3/.8551
  • 8 games prior to losing Heytvelt … 114.7/99.3/.8407

Turns out it hasn’t hurt them much at all; they’ve actually been slightly better on offense without him. Counterintuitive, but that’s what the numbers say.

GONZAGA PLAYER STATS

Name %Min eFG% FT% PPWS Pts A TO BS S OR% DR%
Raivio 89.0 55.6 96.1 1.26 29.1 4.1 2.9 0.0 2.3 2.2 7.3
Pargo 82.6 53.3 73.3 1.17 21.0 7.9 5.6 0.1 2.5 1.5 12.4
Bouldin 68.5 51.3 74.1 1.12 18.6 6.4 4.3 0.2 1.6 4.4 10.1
Pendergraft 53.2 63.6 71.0 1.32 19.1 2.6 2.3 0.4 1.8 8.0 14.9
Mallon 51.8 51.8 66.7 1.11 21.6 2.2 3.7 0.5 1.1 8.0 14.1
Altidor-Cespedes 41.5 49.5 62.5 1.02 11.4 4.4 3.8 0.3 1.4 4.6 6.8
Kuso 35.4 55.0 62.1 1.17 19.6 1.3 4.8 4.9 1.5 16.6 20.1
Downs 21.0 53.6 61.5 1.10 27.4 3.1 3.1 1.2 1.8 9.4 14.5
Heytvelt 49.0 57.6 71.8 1.23 34.1 1.0 3.5 3.8 1.0 8.9 23.5

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