1st ROUND GAME ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Kansas 72, Kentucky 66
• Last 10 Prediction … Kansas 76, Kentucky 63
• Vs. Good Prediction … Kansas 72, Kentucky 67
• Trendline Prediction … Kansas 83, Kentucky 70
• Best 6 Prediction … Kansas 71, Kentucky 59

UPDATED GRAPHS

Kansas team capsule

Kentucky team capsule

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Kentucky 69, Villanova 69
• Last 10 Prediction … Villanova 72, Kentucky 69
• Vs. Good Prediction … Kentucky 69, Villanova 68
• Trendline Prediction … Villanova 77, Kentucky 73
• Best 6 Prediction … Kentucky 64, Villanova 62

explanation

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

While Kentucky’s offense is doing fine, their defense has collapsed. “Collaps” might seem like a harsh word to use, but this is a defense that earlier in the year posted adj. defensive efficiencies below 90 in 11 of 13 games. They haven’t done that well in any of the last 8 games, and the there’s no single factor to blame - eFG%, rebounding, and turnover rates are all worse. So there’s no single thing they can focus their energy on in practice to correct. Though maybe they’ve just played on forgiving rims recently, because their offense’s eFG% has increased in that span as well, lifting their efficiency a little.

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

Villanova’s offense started off at a high level, but inconsistent. Then as 2006 turned to 2007, freshman PG Scottie Reynolds started to see 30+ minutes a game. The first few games they struggled a little, but now that he’s grown into the role, they seem better off. They’ve had 9 straight games over 110 - the longest streak they had before his increased playing time was 3. The defense, meanwhile, has been consistently hovering around 90. The chart slows a slight dip, but that’s almost entirely due to one game against St. Joe’s that somehow seems to have skewed efficiencies for both offense and defense. 8 of their past 11 games have been NCAA-quality (overall rating above .95), so they’re playing at a level where it wouldn’t be surprising to see them reach the second weekend, depending on the draw.