Against Stanford, Louisville showed that their relatively poor offensive showing in the previous game (in the Big East tournament against Georgetown) was just a momentary blip in an otherwise excellent stretch. Their defense turned in another solid performance, and the game was never close. If they play as well against Texas A&M, they’ve got a good chance of advancing to the Sweet 16.

Texas A&M was down midway through the 2nd half in their game against Penn before pulling away late. Most of the blame for the game being close can be placed on their offense, which had been their strength lately. They need to bounce back against Louisville, especially with the game being played in Kentucky.

They way the tams have been playing lately, combined with the home-state crowd, gives the edge to Louisville.

1st ROUND GAME ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Texas A&M 66, Louisville 61
• Last 10 Prediction … Louisville 69, Texas A&M 67
• Vs. Good Prediction … Texas A&M 66, Louisville 62
• Trendline Prediction … Louisville 76, Texas A&M 67
• Best 6 Prediction … Texas A&M 66, Louisville 62

UPDATED GRAPHS

Texas A&M team capsule

Louisville team capsule

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Louisville 67, Stanford 63
• Last 10 Prediction … Louisville 68, Stanford 61
• Vs. Good Prediction … Louisville 68, Stanford 62
• Trendline Prediction … Louisville 73, Stanford 65
• Best 6 Prediction … Louisville 67, Stanford 61

explanation

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

Louisville’s offensive improvement is staggering. They’ve improved from below averageto a point where they’re playing like a top-10 offense by reducing turnovers and shooting a higher eFG%. The “Vs. Good” numbers are a little low, but only because they include that early-season bad stretch. The improvement has come against good teams, so the Cardinals needn’t be worried. Their defense has held steady at around an 85 to 90 adjusted efficiency all season. Louisville seems to be peaking at exactly the right time, and the committee has given them 1st and 2nd round games in their own backyard. Cardinals fans ought to be excited about this team’s chances.

Points, assists, turnovers, blocks, and steals listed per 100 individual possessions

PLAYER STATS

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

Stanford’s defense has played consistently all year, at a slightly better than average level. Their offense has improved in the latter half of the year, thanks largely to Brook Lopez. Offensive / Defensive / Overall:

• Lopez plays less than 20 min … 104.0 / 93.1 / .7799
• Lopez plays more than 20 min … 114.0 / 93.0 / .9122

The Cardinal are in the midst of their longest streak of the year of games with an above average offense and defense. If they can maintain their defensive performance, the huge Lopez may make them a tough out.

Points, assists, turnovers, blocks, and steals listed per 100 individual possessions

PLAYER STATS