Archive for the 'Marquette' Category

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Marquette - Michigan St. Preview

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

  • Full Season Prediction … Michigan St. 63, Marquette 61
  • Last 10 Prediction … Michigan St. 64, Marquette 62
  • Vs. Good Prediction … Michigan St. 65, Marquette 63
  • Trendline Prediction … Marquette 69, Michigan St. 68
  • Best 6 Prediction … Michigan St. 64, Marquette 61

explanation

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

  Tempo Rnk Offense Rnk Defense Rnk Overall Rnk
Overall 68.7 17 113.8 34 90.7 21 .9320 26
Vs. Good 68.6 16 115.3 27 92.0 24 .9304 26
Trendline 67.0 22 131.3 1 101.2 50 .9522 17
Last 10 66.7 20 119.1 22 95.5 36 .9272 25
Best 6 71.1 3 117.3 33 85.2 21 .9754 26

Here’s a case where it’s easy to connect the graph to real life events. Big East Defensive Player of the Year Jerel McNeal has been out with a broken thumb for the last 3 games, which just so happen to include Marquette’s two worst defensive game of the season. Their ability to force turnovers has all but disappeared along with McNeal. At the time of this writing, it’s unknown whether McNeal will play in the NCAA tournament. Obviously his absence would be a huge hit for the Golden Eagles. Luckily their offense is the hottest it’s been all season (possibly not a coincidence?), which may make up for the absence of McNeal.

Points, assists, turnovers, blocks, and steals listed per 100 individual possessions

MARQUETTE PLAYER STATS

Name %Min eFG% FT% PPWS Pts A TO BS S OR% DR%
James 82.5 44.7 63.6 0.98 26.5 9.0 4.7 0.3 3.2 2.0 8.9
Matthews 77.8 48.6 77.6 1.13 24.5 4.3 4.4 0.2 2.8 6.4 12.6
Barro 67.9 60.0 61.9 1.23 18.1 0.8 3.3 2.4 1.4 12.6 16.8
McNeal 65.2 46.7 68.0 1.02 28.7 7.4 8.0 1.1 5.2 6.2 11.7
Fitzgerald 53.8 63.3 76.2 1.31 20.6 1.8 2.8 0.3 1.3 6.8 13.7
Cubillan 52.3 53.7 78.4 1.15 15.2 4.5 2.1 0.1 1.8 1.7 8.6
Hayward 39.7 45.1 66.7 0.99 24.8 1.2 3.8 0.3 2.2 17.4 12.6
Burke 22.7 31.0 28.6 0.63 5.3 0.6 3.2 2.8 1.0 10.4 13.0
Lott 20.9 45.2 52.2 0.96 11.0 1.3 3.3 3.5 2.6 7.1 11.6

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

  Tempo Rnk Offense Rnk Defense Rnk Overall Rnk
Overall 62.1 59 113.6 35 87.1 12 .9550 13
Vs. Good 61.9 60 113.5 36 87.2 7 .9543 16
Trendline 57.8 60 117.3 22 92.4 24 .9394 24
Last 10 59.7 62 114.1 38 89.4 13 .9432 22
Best 6 59.1 65 120.7 23 84.1 17 .9846 17

The Spartan defense has had a yo-yo season, going from great to bad to great to bad. The first trip to “bad” and back can be explained by (or at least correlated with) Isaiah Dahlman’s increased playing time due to Raymar Morgan’s midseason injury. The second one is harder to rationalize. Meanwhile, their offense went through a rough streak several games ago, but has recovered and is running fairly well now. They’ve played seven games where their game rating said they would have beat any team in the country (for comparison, Kansas had 11, Florida 10, Southern Illinois 1, and UNC 16), so if the defense gets back to the level it was at a couple weeks ago, Michigan State could make some noise.

Points, assists, turnovers, blocks, and steals listed per 100 individual possessions

PLAYER STATS

Name %Min eFG% FT% PPWS Pts A TO BS S OR% DR%
Neitzel 88.8 55.7 88.1 1.22 33.4 7.9 4.2 0.5 1.5 0.4 9.1
Walton 81.6 49.1 79.5 1.13 13.3 11.0 5.0 0.0 2.3 2.3 7.8
Suton 67.4 51.0 64.6 1.07 23.2 5.7 6.5 1.9 1.6 11.8 19.9
Naymick 53.5 47.9 76.1 1.09 11.6 1.7 2.9 5.0 2.1 11.6 12.5
Morgan 53.1 50.0 64.6 1.07 27.5 2.2 5.7 1.1 1.7 8.5 14.9
Gray 46.7 56.8 54.9 1.15 22.9 1.7 5.8 2.2 2.1 14.6 22.0
Joseph 36.9 51.4 73.5 1.09 23.4 2.8 3.8 0.0 0.8 2.6 10.0
Dahlman 30.4 46.6 73.7 1.07 15.7 4.9 3.4 0.7 1.1 9.8 7.7
Ibok 26.2 67.6 51.5 1.30 12.7 0.8 5.5 6.3 1.0 14.0 14.4

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