Maryland took a little while to put Davidson away, but there’s no shame in that. They ended up with good offensive and defensive adjusted efficiencies for the night. Butler handled Old Dominion, but did so mainly by playing well offensively. They’ll need to play much better on D to have a shot against Maryland. The full season stats say this should be very close, but Butler’s been playing much worse recently. Maryland should handle them without too much trouble.

1st ROUND GAME ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Maryland 66, Butler 64
• Last 10 Prediction … Maryland 71, Butler 61
• Vs. Good Prediction … Maryland 69, Butler 65
• Trendline Prediction … Maryland 68, Butler 58
• Best 6 Prediction … Maryland 67, Butler 62

UPDATED GRAPHS

Maryland team capsule

Butler team capsule

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Maryland 86, Davidson 74
• Last 10 Prediction … Maryland 84, Davidson 70
• Vs. Good Prediction … Maryland 84, Davidson 73
• Trendline Prediction … Maryland 89, Davidson 72
• Best 6 Prediction … Maryland 84, Davidson 70

explanation

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

The Maryland defense has been good all yeah, but it’s the offense’s late-season improvement that’s gotten people talking about them as a possible Final Four team. Look at the graph, and you can see that the offense forgot to show up in their ACC tourney loss to Miami. Is it an indicator of things to come? Notice that there are only 2 games on the graph where the offense was just putrid, and both were against Miami. The common statistical thread between the two games was Maryland’s terrible shooting and Miami’s domination of the offensive glass (which prevents Maryland from grabbing a board and pushing the ball up the court). Without having watched the games, I can’t say whether Miami does something in particular to force Maryland’s bad shooting, or if it’s just a cosmic coincidence that both poor nights came against the same team. After the first debacle, the offense immediately bounced back to its previous levels. The Terps had better hope the same thing happens this time.

Points, assists, turnovers, blocks, and steals listed per 100 individual possessions

MARYLAND PLAYER STATS

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

The trendlines are a little deceiving in this graph, as they make it look like the offense and defense efficiencies have risen at the same rate. In reality, the defensive numbers have improved slightly since midseason, mostly due to forcing more turnovers and picking up more defensive rebounds. On offense, the team’s improvement has been driven by better shooting and rebounding. Of concern is that their offense hasn’t performed as well against above-avergae teams, even when adjusting for the level of competition.

DAVIDSON PLAYER STATS