There’s a very good chance that this game (though it will likely be played at a faster pace, and thus, be higher scoring) will produce a lower rate of offensive efficiency than the Kansas/UCLA game. Neither Ohio State nor Memphis shoot the ball especially well (though Ohio State is clearly better both from the field and the line), though both compensate by taking good care of the ball. Memphis’s poor free throw shooting may not be much of a hindrance in this game as Ohio State does an excellent job of keeping their opponents off the free throw line.

Though Memphis is unquestionably a good team, two of their most important strengths (offensive rebounding and opponents’ turnover rate) are quite likely influenced to a significant degree by the vast talent gap between themselves and most of the teams on their schedule.

Ohio State is good both at taking care of the ball and keeping their opponents off the offensive glass. There’s no doubt Memphis is capable of performing better in both of these areas than the average Ohio State opponent, but it’s unlikely that the Tigers can match their typical performance, against their relatively low-level of competition on the season as a whole, in either area when playing Ohio State. Of course, in one game anything can happen.

The Memphis tendency most likely to cause Ohio State problems is the Tigers’s unwillingness to allow their opponents to attempt three-point shots. (On the year, just 28.8% of opponents’ attempts have come from behind the arc.) In their narrow wins over Xavier and Tennessee, Ohio State took 37.7% of their shots and made 39.5% of those attempts. Ron Lewis (53.6% of FGA are 3PTA), Jamar Butler (76% of FGA are 3PTA), and Ivan Harris (57.9% of FGA are 3PTA) will have to find atypical ways in which to maintain their scoring contributions.

It bears reminding that, prior to the unlikely events (missed Acie Law IV layup followed shortly thereafter by consecutive made free throws by Antonio Anderson) that secured Memphis’s narrow win over Texas A&M, the best team Memphis had beaten all season was Kentucky. In Maui. In November.

FIRST 3 GAMES ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Ohio St. 70, Memphis 68
• Last 10 Prediction … Ohio St. 67, Memphis 63
• Vs. Good Prediction … Ohio St. 69, Memphis 68
• Trendline Prediction … Ohio St. 65, Memphis 62
• Tourney So Far Prediction … Memphis 66, Ohio St. 64

UPDATED GRAPHS

Ohio St. team capsule

Memphis team capsule

This one is a battle of genres…Memphis is a Mystery and Texas A&M is a Western, complete with a hero who has made more big shots in the last half of the season than most teams do in a decade. Statistically speaking, this game is a wash. Texas A&M has played a little bit better over the course of the season, but Memphis is on the rise and gaining respectability as they’ve emerged from the close-lit caves of Conference USA to the bright lights of the Big Dance.

Complicating predictions is the fact that both teams are probably a little misunderstood. Gillespie’s Aggies are broadly known for their defensive prowess, but they’ve actually been a better offensive (or oh-ffensive if you’re Rick Majerus, and if you are Rick Majerus, you are probably not reading this) team than defensive over the last half of the season. Similarly, or maybe oppositely, people tend to think of Memphis as a running, gunning group of athletes. But they’re actually really good defensively.

Memphis does play faster than A&M, but A&M is better at scoring once they get in a half court set.

If Chris Douglas-Roberts plays for Memphis, it will be a close, entertaining game, with the edge going in the end to the more experienced, more battle-tested Aggies. They do have Acie Law (and a maroon caravan from San Anton to College Station) on their side, and in a close game, there’s not a better player in America. If CDR can’t go, the Aggies should win by 6-8 points.

FIRST 2 GAMES ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Texas A&M 69, Memphis 66
• Last 10 Prediction … Texas A&M 68, Memphis 65
• Vs. Good Prediction … Texas A&M 67, Memphis 66
• Trendline Prediction … Memphis 67, Texas A&M 67
• Best 6 Prediction … Texas A&M 69, Memphis 65

UPDATED GRAPHS

Memphis team capsule

Texas A&M team capsule

1st ROUND GAME ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Memphis 78, Nevada 69
• Last 10 Prediction … Memphis 74, Nevada 69
• Vs. Good Prediction … Memphis 77, Nevada 68
• Trendline Prediction … Memphis 72, Nevada 71
• Best 6 Prediction … Memphis 84, Nevada 68

UPDATED GRAPHS

Memphis team capsule

Nevada team capsule

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Memphis 86, North Texas 62
• Last 10 Prediction … Memphis 82, North Texas 57
• Vs. Good Prediction … Memphis 82, North Texas 65
• Trendline Prediction … Memphis 79, North Texas 63
• Best 6 Prediction … Memphis 82, North Texas 58

explanation

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

As winners of 22 straight games heading into the tournament, it might seem like Memphis is, by definition, one of the hottest teams in the dance. If you go by wins alone, sure. But a closer look at their performance reveals a team that has, at times, been doing just enough to win against mediocre teams. Only two of their last 6 adjusted game ratings have been NCAA-quality (over .95), and in only one of their last four has their offense and defense both been better than average. On the other hand, they are still rated 8th-best over the last 10 games, and 12 of their past 13 games they’ve posted an adjusted offensive efficiency over 110. Memphis fans should hope the trendlines are just aberrations created by a couple outlying results, and not actually a sign of things to come.

Points, assists, turnovers, blocks, and steals listed per 100 individual possessions

PLAYER STATS

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

North Texas is actually a below average team over the last 10 games, and for the year as a whole, but they’re not as bad as the graph makes them look. The really terrible stretch about a third of the way into the season coincided with the return of their 2nd-leading scorer, Kendrick Davis. The defense was fine while he was out, tanked when he returned, and took a few games to get back to where it was before. Davis may have come back a couple games to early and not been at full speed yet, or may have disrupted team chemistry, but whatever the problem was, they solved it and now are playing at an average level.

Points, assists, turnovers, blocks, and steals listed per 100 individual possessions

NORTH TEXAS PLAYER STATS