Over the last 7 games, Oregon has averaged an eFG% of 59.5%, while holding their opponents to 45.2%. Compare that to their season averages of 53.4% and 49%, and you pretty much see the whole reason behind their recent success. In order to have a chance against Florida, they’re going to have to keep that up. Unlikely, because Florida is on an even better streak - since the start of the SEC tournament (6 games), Florida is averaging an eFG% of 59.9% while holding their opponents to 41.2%. That’s actually around their season average on offense, and a few points better on defense (they average 44.9%).

Oregon’s offensive success should really hinge on their 3-pt shooting. They shouldn’t turn the ball over much, as Florida doesn’t force many turnovers (19.4%, 264th), and Oregon doesn’t cough it up often (18.5%, 39th). They won’t get many 2nd chances, though, as Florida is 10th in the country in OR%, and Oregon has actually been below average recently. So there should be a lot of one-shot possessions for Oregon, and a LOT of those will be one 3-pt shot. The Ducks take 42.2% of their shots from 3-pt range (29th most), and hit them at a 39.1% rate (27th). Unfortunately for them, Florida allows the 2nd-lowest 3FG% in the country, at 28.9%. If they can hit shots despite Florida’s excellent perimeter defense, they have a chance. If not, they don’t.

When Florida has the ball, they should turn it over a little more often than Oregon, as Florida’s about average (20.5%, 125th) at turning it over, and Oregon’s about average at forcing them (21.5%, 148th). They should do decently on the offensive boards, though, to make up for it, as they’re better at rebounding at both ends of the floor than the Ducks. And unless something unexpected happens, they should shoot well. I doubt they’ll keep up their 59.5% eFG% average, but their offense is on an amazingly consistent, excellent streak, with 7 straight games of adjusted offensive efficiency of 125+. They should be able to keep their eFG% over 50%, and unless the Ducks are on fire from deep, that should be enough to win.

FIRST 3 GAMES ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Florida 75, Oregon 67
• Last 10 Prediction … Florida 71, Oregon 68
• Vs. Good Prediction … Florida 74, Oregon 67
• Trendline Prediction … Florida 70, Oregon 68
• Tourney So Far Prediction … Florida 78, Oregon 71

UPDATED GRAPHS

Florida team capsule

Oregon team capsule

There are a lot of parallels between the Florida - Butler matchup and the Kansas - Southern Illinois matchup. Both are games between slow, steady mid-majors and much-celebrated BCS programs packed with superior athletes.

Butler’s hope in this game is completely dependent upon their ability to control pace, something they’ve done very well over the course of the season. Butler, remember, has beaten the likes of Gonzaga, Indiana, Purdue and Tennessee (by considerably more than the Buckeyes beat them). They can beat Florida, but they probably won’t. Florida should be able to score at will, and if Butler doesn’t get back defensively, Florida can run them ragged.

That being said, Florida hasn’t been guarding people very well lately, and Butler is a very efficient team offensively…they turn the ball over less than anyone in America. If Butler limits possessions and Florida suffers at all from poor shooting, this game could be closer than the below numbers predict.

FIRST 2 GAMES ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Florida 65, Butler 59
• Last 10 Prediction … Florida 68, Butler 61
• Vs. Good Prediction … Florida 67, Butler 60
• Trendline Prediction … Florida 64, Butler 57
• Best 6 Prediction … Florida 62, Butler 53

UPDATED GRAPHS

Florida team capsule

Butler team capsule

I didn’t have either of these teams making it this far at this time last week.

Oregon is riding an atypically strong defensive run over the last six games with Miami, OH being the only team to score more than one point per possession. As impressive as the Ducks have been over the last two weeks, it should be remembered that, entering the regular season finale against Oregon State, Oregon had been outscored in Pac-10 play.

UNLV scored 108 points more than their MWC opponents, but almost half (50 points) of that positive scoring margin came in the three extra home games they got to play as part of the conference tournament. (The remaining 16 teams outscored conference opponents between 351 (Memphis—also with three extra home games) and 1 (Vanderbilt) point this year.)

Only the pace of play will keep this from being the highest-scoring Sweet 16 game. Both teams made it this far by outscoring their opponents. UNLV allowed 1.08 points per possession to Georgia Tech and 1.06 to the Brian Butch-less Wisconsin Badges. Oregon gave up 1.07 points per possession to the MAC’s fourth-place team in the first round and 0.99 points per possession to Winthrop despite the Eagles making just five free throws and missing 23 of their 31 three-point attempts.

Oregon has no depth (Joevan Catron is the only reserve expected to see extended action) but they have as good an offensive starting five as any team left in the tournament. Aaron Brooks, Tajuan Porter, Bryce Taylor, Malik Hairston, and Maarty Leunen each score at least 20 points per 100 possessions. And they score efficiently. Each of the five scores at least 1.17 points per weighted shot.

Barring foul trouble or in-game injury, Oregon’s lack of depth will only hurt them if Porter is unable to make shots. He doesn’t really do anything helpful other than score. He’s the only regular with an assist-to-turnover ratio below one and rebounds one-third as often as the next worst starter on the offensive glass, and one-half as often as the next worst starter on the defensive glass.

Oregon’s reliance on the three-point shot (42% of their field goal attempts on the year) may increase due to the presence of UNLV’s Joel Anthony (10.3 Blocks per 100 possessions) and Gaston Essengue (4 Blocks/100) in the paint. Increasing their reliance (even though it would only figure to amount to one or two extra three-point attempts over the course of the low-possession style Oregon favors) on the least consistent method of scoring may not hurt Oregon. The Ducks don’t usually get too many offensive rebounds, but UNLV has allowed four of their last ten opponents to get at least 40% of the possible offensive rebounds.

Because they’re a good offensive rebounding team and almost never turn the ball over, UNLV’s offense does not depend on making shots to the degree that Oregon’s offense does. Oregon is not especially adept at either forcing turnovers or (Maarty Leunen and Catron, excepted) controlling the defensive glass. If the Ducks allow (as they normally do their opponents) UNLV to make a higher-than-normal percentage of their shots and maintain their average rates of offensive rebounding and turnovers, the Oregon offense will be under tremendous pressure to keep up.

FIRST 2 GAMES ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Oregon 71, UNLV 69
• Last 10 Prediction … Oregon 67, UNLV 65
• Vs. Good Prediction … Oregon 70, UNLV 67
• Trendline Prediction … Oregon 69, UNLV 65
• Best 6 Prediction … Oregon 66, UNLV 61

UPDATED GRAPHS

Oregon team capsule

UNLV team capsule

1st ROUND GAME ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Florida 72, Purdue 63
• Last 10 Prediction … Purdue 66, Florida 65
• Vs. Good Prediction … Florida 72, Purdue 64
• Trendline Prediction … Florida 65, Purdue 64
• Best 6 Prediction … Florida 66, Purdue 57

UPDATED GRAPHS

Florida team capsule

Purdue team capsule

1st ROUND GAME ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Wisconsin 68, UNLV 60
• Last 10 Prediction … Wisconsin 61, UNLV 57
• Vs. Good Prediction … Wisconsin 67, UNLV 59
• Trendline Prediction … Wisconsin 58, UNLV 57
• Best 6 Prediction … Wisconsin 64, UNLV 56

UPDATED GRAPHS

Wisconsin team capsule

UNLV team capsule

1st ROUND GAME ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Oregon 70, Winthrop 64
• Last 10 Prediction … Oregon 71, Winthrop 61
• Vs. Good Prediction … Winthrop 69, Oregon 67
• Trendline Prediction … Oregon 68, Winthrop 56
• Best 6 Prediction … Oregon 67, Winthrop 59

UPDATED GRAPHS

Oregon team capsule

Winthrop team capsule

Maryland took a little while to put Davidson away, but there’s no shame in that. They ended up with good offensive and defensive adjusted efficiencies for the night. Butler handled Old Dominion, but did so mainly by playing well offensively. They’ll need to play much better on D to have a shot against Maryland. The full season stats say this should be very close, but Butler’s been playing much worse recently. Maryland should handle them without too much trouble.

1st ROUND GAME ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Maryland 66, Butler 64
• Last 10 Prediction … Maryland 71, Butler 61
• Vs. Good Prediction … Maryland 69, Butler 65
• Trendline Prediction … Maryland 68, Butler 58
• Best 6 Prediction … Maryland 67, Butler 62

UPDATED GRAPHS

Maryland team capsule

Butler team capsule

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Wisconsin 80, Texas A&M CC 62
• Last 10 Prediction … Wisconsin 79, Texas A&M CC 59
• Vs. Good Prediction … Wisconsin 79, Texas A&M CC 62
• Trendline Prediction … Wisconsin 74, Texas A&M CC 57
• Best 6 Prediction … Wisconsin 76, Texas A&M CC 59

explanation

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

The Badgers lost great rebounder Brian Butch to an elbow injury four games ago. People were worried this would be a huge blow to Wisconsin, but they’ve managed OK without him. Their defense has actually been slightly better. They’ve allowed teams to shoot a little better but made up for it by better rebounding (?!) and forcing more turnovers. Their offense has been less consistent in the 4 games he’s missed, and a little less effective. But they’ve also played all those games against teams in the top 15 in adjusted defense for the season. They won’t face a defense like that again unless they make a fairly deep tournament run (which they’re supposed to do, being a 2 seed).

Points, assists, turnovers, blocks, and steals listed per 100 individual possessions

WISCONSIN PLAYER STATS

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

Texas A&M Corpus Christi has a decent offense, a bad defense, and little shot at winning a game in the tourney because of their seeding. I think they should have been a 14. Lucky for them, they draw the weakest 2 seed. They can dream, at least.

Points, assists, turnovers, blocks, and steals listed per 100 individual possessions

TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI PLAYER STATS

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Georgia Tech 73, UNLV 68
• Last 10 Prediction … Georgia Tech 70, UNLV 64
• Vs. Good Prediction … Georgia Tech 72, UNLV 68
• Trendline Prediction … Georgia Tech 72, UNLV 70
• Best 6 Prediction … Georgia Tech 63, UNLV 61

explanation

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

UNLV’s had a couple of their best games defensively recently, and their offense is doing about as well as it has all year. They’re not very consistent on either end of the court, though, so how they’ll play in the tournament is a mystery to me. Their stat averages say they should be somewhere in the 7 to 10 range. 4 of their last 7 games have been NCAA-quality (over .95), so they’ve got a decent chance of moving to the next round.

Points, assists, turnovers, blocks, and steals listed per 100 individual possessions

PLAYER STATS

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

The trendlines for Georgia Tech look exactly the same, but if you look closer at the individual points, a slightly different picture is painted (one that’s prettier to Tech fans). The offense is in the midst of its best run of the season, with adjusted efficiencies better than 115 in 10 of the past 11 games. The defense, meanwhile, is only trending up because of their last game, an inexplicable loss to Wake Forest. Notice that the last game they played so badly on defense was also against Wake. Those 2 games are by far their worst defensive efforts in the past 23 games, so perhaps Wake presents unique matchup problems for Tech. Take out those two aberrations, and the Yellow Jacket defense looks much better. According to the ratings, they’re 4 to 6 seed quality, yet they’re slotted in at #10. They are a prime candidate to pull off a couple of upsets and make the Sweet 16.

Points, assists, turnovers, blocks, and steals listed per 100 individual possessions

GEORGIA TECH PLAYER STATS

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Oregon 65, Miami (OH) 57
• Last 10 Prediction … Oregon 62, Miami (OH) 54
• Vs. Good Prediction … Oregon 63, Miami (OH) 55
• Trendline Prediction … Oregon 60, Miami (OH) 49
• Best 6 Prediction … Oregon 59, Miami (OH) 48

explanation

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

Oregon is one of the hottest teams in the country, the hottest in the Midwest region according to the trendline stats. The offense continues to climb, and their defense is back to early season form. Believe it or not, Oregon is very similar to last year’s Florida team:

• Make it to conference play undefeated? Check.
• Lose first conference game against a top-50 opponent? Check.
• 3 game losing streak late in conference play? Check.
• Finish in a three-way tie for third? Check.
• Win conference tournament? Check
• Best 4-game stretch (ratings-wise) comes in last 4 pre-NCAA-tourney games? Check.
• Get #3 seed in tournament? Check.
• Get to play close to home in first 2 rounds? Check.
• Draw a pod with a popular 11-over-6 upset pick? Check.
• Top-20 offense? Check.
• Top-20 defense? NOOOOOOOOO.

Only a top-50 defense. Sorry Ducks fans.

Points, assists, turnovers, blocks, and steals listed per 100 individual possessions

PLAYER STATS

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

Miami’s offense has undergone consistent improvemen throughout the year, and 10 out of their last 12 games have been above average. Their defense had been getting worse at the same rate, making me wonder if the changes were actually do to errors in the possession data, but recently the D has slightly improved. This is a team trending in the right direction and peaking at the right time. Unfortunately for them, they’re up against one of the hottest teams in the field in Oregon.

Points, assists, turnovers, blocks, and steals listed per 100 individual possessions

PLAYER STATS