The first thing that jumps out at me about this matchup is the difference in tempos - UNC is the ninth fastest team in the country, while Georgetown is the 9th slowest. You might assume that whichever team forces the game to be played at its tempo will come away with the win, but looking at the teams’ prior games shows that not to be true. All 6 of Carolina’s losses have come in games with 69 or more possessions. Georgetown has only played 2 games that fast all year. 5 of Georgetown’s 6 losses have come in games with 61 or less possessions. UNC has only played 1 game that slow all year. What seems most likely is that they’ll play a game with the possessions in that middle ground of 62-68. At those tempos, both teams are 6-0, and both played about 15% better than expected (based on season stats) on offense, and average on defense. So the tempo battle seems to be a wash.

Both teams have been absolutely dominating the offensive glass in the tourney so far, collecting at least 40% of their own misses in each game so far. On the defensive end, Georgetown has allowed their opponents to get offensive rebounds at about their season average, while UNC has been holding them 5% to 10% below average. I expect that to continue, meaning the Hoyas will need to take a little better care of the ball to make up for their fewer second chance possessions. Luckily for them, North Carolina is only average at forcing turnovers. Their 2nd round opponent, Michigan State, was a high-TO, high-OReb team, just like Georgetown. UNC allowed them to hold on to the ball better than usual, but did limit their offensive rebounds.

One thing I’m curious about is how many 3-pt shots UNC will shoot. They shoot only 25.2% of their shots from long range for the season (13th least), but Georgetown opponents shoot 38.5% of theirs from 3 (42nd most). In addition, the Hoyas hold teams to 30.5% on those threes (8th best), and Carolina is only slightly above average on them, at 36.1% (115th).

Both teams are playing well on offense and decent on defense, but Carolina has just a little more defensive consistency, and they have more offensive weapons, so they’re less susceptible to foul trouble. All the stats say this should be a narrow North Carolina victory, and I see no compelling reason to think otherwise. My guess is this is gonna be one more game where either team can win at the end if they just make their shots. (On that note, UNC fans should hope that Brandon Wright isn’t at the line needing to make a FT in the closing seconds.)

FIRST 3 GAMES ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … North Carolina 71, Georgetown 67
• Last 10 Prediction … North Carolina 69, Georgetown 67
• Vs. Good Prediction … North Carolina 70, Georgetown 67
• Trendline Prediction … North Carolina 71, Georgetown 71
• Tourney So Far Prediction … North Carolina 70, Georgetown 67

UPDATED GRAPHS

North Carolina team capsule

Georgetown team capsule

So far USC has been the most impressive team in the tournament. Their offense has been on par with UNC’s, and their defense has been substantially better. They’ve done it by 1) crashing the offensive boards, 2) not turning the ball over, and 3) shutting down the other team’s point guards. These may be good signs, as 1) UNC was dominated on the boards in their last 2 losses, 2) their main “weakness” on defense is that they only force turnovers at an average rate, and 3) well, just read the next paragraph.

On Sunday, USC’s Gabe Pruitt used his advantage in size and experience (he’s a 6′4″ junior) to frustrate and shut down DJ Augustin, the 5′11″ freshman point guard, and 3rd-leading scorer, for one of the most explosive offenses in the country. Guess who Pruitt will be guarding on Friday… Ty Lawson, the 5′11″ freshman point guard, and 4th-leading scorer, for one of the most explosive offenses in the country. Augustin finished 1-8 from the field, with as many turnovers as points (6 each). If Pruitt can force Lawson into a similarly dismal day, USC’s chances of pulling off an upset against North Carolina rise substantially. Unfortunately for the Trojans, Carolina has more weapons than Texas. Whereas Augustin was part of an essentially three-pronged attack, the Tarheels start 5 players who all contribute substantially to the offense. So shutting down Lawson won’t have the same crippling effect.

Besides their multi-dimensional offense, UNC also has one of the better defenses in the country, although one that has been in a bit of a lull since their loss at NC State a little over a month ago. Their main problem is that they’re letting opponents shoot better. They’re only 7-5 in games where the opponent has an eFG% of at least 50%, 23-1 otherwise. USC has broken that the 50% barrier in 12 of their past 15 games. In the last month, against teams who are as good or better than UNC in eFG% allowed, USC has shot above 50 eFG% in 4 out of 5 games.

As I mentioned earlier, North Carolina’s main “weakness” on defense is that they only force turnovers at an average rate. The opponent stat that happens to correlate most closely to wins and losses this year for USC is … TO% forced. Against major-conference opponents, USC is 4-8 against teams who force more turnovers on average than UNC. They’re 10-3 against teams who force less. Carolina’s right on the tipping point.

So while USC obviously has a tough task ahead of them, they are well-suited to take advantage of a couple of UNC’s weaknesses, and may have a surprise strength of their own in Pruitt’s defense. The score predictions indicate we should expect a 5 to 12 point Carolina win. I see it ending up a lot like the UNC-Michigan St. game - close in the 2nd half, but UNC pulls away late.

FIRST 2 GAMES ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … North Carolina 81, USC 69
• Last 10 Prediction … North Carolina 84, USC 74
• Vs. Good Prediction … North Carolina 81, USC 69
• Trendline Prediction … North Carolina 87, USC 82
• Best 6 Prediction … North Carolina 75, USC 63

UPDATED GRAPHS

North Carolina team capsule

USC team capsule

1st ROUND GAME ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … North Carolina 71, Michigan St. 62
• Last 10 Prediction … North Carolina 67, Michigan St. 63
• Vs. Good Prediction … North Carolina 71, Michigan St. 62
• Trendline Prediction … North Carolina 66, Michigan St. 65
• Best 6 Prediction … North Carolina 65, Michigan St. 55

UPDATED GRAPHS

North Carolina team capsule

Michigan St. team capsule