EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Memphis 86, North Texas 62
• Last 10 Prediction … Memphis 82, North Texas 57
• Vs. Good Prediction … Memphis 82, North Texas 65
• Trendline Prediction … Memphis 79, North Texas 63
• Best 6 Prediction … Memphis 82, North Texas 58

explanation

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

As winners of 22 straight games heading into the tournament, it might seem like Memphis is, by definition, one of the hottest teams in the dance. If you go by wins alone, sure. But a closer look at their performance reveals a team that has, at times, been doing just enough to win against mediocre teams. Only two of their last 6 adjusted game ratings have been NCAA-quality (over .95), and in only one of their last four has their offense and defense both been better than average. On the other hand, they are still rated 8th-best over the last 10 games, and 12 of their past 13 games they’ve posted an adjusted offensive efficiency over 110. Memphis fans should hope the trendlines are just aberrations created by a couple outlying results, and not actually a sign of things to come.

Points, assists, turnovers, blocks, and steals listed per 100 individual possessions

PLAYER STATS

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

North Texas is actually a below average team over the last 10 games, and for the year as a whole, but they’re not as bad as the graph makes them look. The really terrible stretch about a third of the way into the season coincided with the return of their 2nd-leading scorer, Kendrick Davis. The defense was fine while he was out, tanked when he returned, and took a few games to get back to where it was before. Davis may have come back a couple games to early and not been at full speed yet, or may have disrupted team chemistry, but whatever the problem was, they solved it and now are playing at an average level.

Points, assists, turnovers, blocks, and steals listed per 100 individual possessions

NORTH TEXAS PLAYER STATS