Florida enters the National Championship game off of a terrifically impressive offensive performance against UCLA. The Bruins reached the Final Four by making a pair of good offensive teams (Pittsburgh and Kansas) extremely impotent in San Jose. On the season, I have Florida as being slightly less than 10 percent better offensively than either Pittsburgh or Kansas. In their respective tournament games against UCLA, Florida was more than 31 percent better than either Pittsburgh or Kansas. This despite Taurean Green’s 2-9 FGA, 1-7 3PTA performance and Al Horford and Joakim Noah combining to make just 7 of 16 free throw attempts.

The Florida Gators are the best offensive team in college basketball.

I can make that statement unequivocally because the Ohio State Buckeyes eliminated the other contender for “best offensive team in college basketball (unofficial and subjective)” in their semi-final. Ohio State’s defensive performance against Georgetown was every bit as impressive as Florida’s offensive performance against UCLA.

Tonight, though, Ohio State will not get the benefit of facing 39 minutes of scoreless bench play (and not just scoreless, Georgetown’s reserves attempted only 2 shots in that time). Barring a Dan Werner cameo, at no point will Florida have a player on the court who is not both a capable and efficient scorer.

Ohio State will have to play various offensive lightweights (David Lighty, Matt Terwilliger, and, on his current form, if not his ability, Daequan Cook) for upwards of 20 percent of the game. This could be a deciding factor as Ohio State, despite being the better of the two teams defensively, will need a good offensive performance as well (as they had against Georgetown) to beat the Gators.

In their losses, Florida has struggled to guard athletic forwards. Julian Wright, Darrell Arthur, Al Thornton, and Derrick Byars each made significant contributions in their teams’ victories by attacking Horford and/or Noah individually. Ohio State doesn’t have a player like that on the roster. Both of the Florida big men are more effective using their length and athleticism as help defenders or as part of a zone than in one-on-one situations. Greg Oden will provide a different sort of defensive challenge, but I expect that Ohio State will rely a great deal on Mike Conley, Jr. using dribble penetration to create scoring opportunities for his teammates.

FIRST 5 GAMES ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Florida 76, Ohio St. 68
• Last 10 Prediction … Florida 70, Ohio St. 69
• Vs. Good Prediction … Florida 70, Ohio St. 69
• Trendline Prediction … Florida 73, Ohio St. 72
• Tourney So Far Prediction … Florida 78, Ohio St. 77

UPDATED GRAPHS

Florida team capsule

Ohio St. team capsule

Per Ken Pomeroy’s HD boxscores (and barring errors in my calculations), in the NCAA Tournament Ohio State is +37.4 points per 100 possessions when Greg Oden is on the floor and -20.5 points per 100 possessions when Greg Oden is off the floor. I’ve got a sneaky suspicion that everything that follows in this preview is simply padding.

Press on I will, though, to say that these teams enter the game dead-even across each of the efficiency breakdowns. Looking at the four factors for both teams, I have formulated the following four predictions:

1) Georgetown will shoot a higher percentage from the field than Ohio State.
2) Georgetown will turn the ball over far more frequently than Ohio State.
3) Georgetown will get a lot of offensive rebounds, but probably not as many as they usually do.
4) Ohio State will get far more offensive rebounds than they usually do.

It’s very unlikely that either team will significantly impair their opponent’s ability to score. Ohio State has been vulnerable to the three-point shot throughout the tournament. Georgetown’s proficiency in converting that shot could limit Greg Oden’s overall defensive impact.

However, it’s unlikely that Oden has no defensive impact in the game. To whatever degree Oden has the opportunity to block or alter shots, those shots figure to be taken by Georgetown’s two best scorers: Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert. Then again, those are the two Hoyas most likely to get Oden in foul trouble.

Even he doesn’t play a lot of minutes, Oden’s rebounding could be the deciding factor in the game. Georgetown both relies on their excellent offensive rebounding to make up for their turnovers and does a poor job of defensive rebounding. Any extra attention Oden draws (in addition to the extra rebounds he gathers) will be a boon to his one-and-a-half excellent rebounding teammates: Othello Hunter (15.8 OR%, 14.3 DR%) and Daequan Cook (4.6 OR%, 20.5 DR%).

I have a sneaking suspicion that Hunter, in particular, could provide us with a preview of the excellent 2007-08 season he figures to have should Mr. Oden leave for the NBA.

FIRST 4 GAMES ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Ohio St. 63, Georgetown 63
• Last 10 Prediction … Georgetown 60, Ohio St. 59
• Vs. Good Prediction … Ohio St. 63, Georgetown 63
• Trendline Prediction … Ohio St. 66, Georgetown 65
• Tourney So Far Prediction … Georgetown 69, Ohio St. 68

UPDATED GRAPHS

Ohio St. team capsule

Georgetown team capsule

There’s a very good chance that this game (though it will likely be played at a faster pace, and thus, be higher scoring) will produce a lower rate of offensive efficiency than the Kansas/UCLA game. Neither Ohio State nor Memphis shoot the ball especially well (though Ohio State is clearly better both from the field and the line), though both compensate by taking good care of the ball. Memphis’s poor free throw shooting may not be much of a hindrance in this game as Ohio State does an excellent job of keeping their opponents off the free throw line.

Though Memphis is unquestionably a good team, two of their most important strengths (offensive rebounding and opponents’ turnover rate) are quite likely influenced to a significant degree by the vast talent gap between themselves and most of the teams on their schedule.

Ohio State is good both at taking care of the ball and keeping their opponents off the offensive glass. There’s no doubt Memphis is capable of performing better in both of these areas than the average Ohio State opponent, but it’s unlikely that the Tigers can match their typical performance, against their relatively low-level of competition on the season as a whole, in either area when playing Ohio State. Of course, in one game anything can happen.

The Memphis tendency most likely to cause Ohio State problems is the Tigers’s unwillingness to allow their opponents to attempt three-point shots. (On the year, just 28.8% of opponents’ attempts have come from behind the arc.) In their narrow wins over Xavier and Tennessee, Ohio State took 37.7% of their shots and made 39.5% of those attempts. Ron Lewis (53.6% of FGA are 3PTA), Jamar Butler (76% of FGA are 3PTA), and Ivan Harris (57.9% of FGA are 3PTA) will have to find atypical ways in which to maintain their scoring contributions.

It bears reminding that, prior to the unlikely events (missed Acie Law IV layup followed shortly thereafter by consecutive made free throws by Antonio Anderson) that secured Memphis’s narrow win over Texas A&M, the best team Memphis had beaten all season was Kentucky. In Maui. In November.

FIRST 3 GAMES ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Ohio St. 70, Memphis 68
• Last 10 Prediction … Ohio St. 67, Memphis 63
• Vs. Good Prediction … Ohio St. 69, Memphis 68
• Trendline Prediction … Ohio St. 65, Memphis 62
• Tourney So Far Prediction … Memphis 66, Ohio St. 64

UPDATED GRAPHS

Ohio St. team capsule

Memphis team capsule

Everybody loves a rematch.

At least I do.

The last time these two teams played both teams shot poorly, combining to shoot 6-39 on jump shots. Both teams made a lot of money with layups and dunks, but ultimately, OSU prevailed at home 68-66. Judging by that game alone, one would expect a very close game. And one is probably right to do so. Tennessee is a better team than they were during UT - OSU round one, and HTB’s trendline analysis predicts an almost identical score of 68-65, still in favor of the Buckeyes.

But for UT, Wayne Chism has emerged as a dynamic presence, perhaps the answer everyone’s looking for to the question of who can drag Greg Oden from his position in the post and open up the lane for penetration by UT’s guards.

Despite looking pretty unimpressive in beating Xavier, OSU should win this game, but not by much. The crowd will probably be behind UT, which may give them energy to overcome what should be a slight disadvantage relative to the much hyped Buckeyes.

FIRST 2 GAMES ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Ohio St. 79, Tennessee 70
• Last 10 Prediction … Ohio St. 71, Tennessee 68
• Vs. Good Prediction … Ohio St. 77, Tennessee 70
• Trendline Prediction … Ohio St. 68, Tennessee 65
• Best 6 Prediction … Ohio St. 78, Tennessee 70

UPDATED GRAPHS

Ohio St. team capsule

Tennessee team capsule