EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Butler 63, Old Dominion 57
• Last 10 Prediction … Butler 64, Old Dominion 62
• Vs. Good Prediction … Butler 66, Old Dominion 62
• Trendline Prediction … Butler 64, Old Dominion 59
• Best 6 Prediction … Butler 61, Old Dominion 56

explanation

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

Butler made the NCAA tournament largely on the strength of their performance in their first 5 games, which included wins over Notre Dame and Indiana at home, and Tennessee and Gonzaga in New York. As you can see from the graph, both their offense and defense were performing well at that time. Their offense has maintained its efficiency, but the defense isn’t anywhere near as good as it was, mainly because they’ve lost the ability to force turnovers:

• First 5 games … TO% over 22.0 in every game
• Last 13 games … TO% over 22.0 once

Long story short, their loss to Wright State in the Horizon League conference tournament championship game was no fluke. If they can’t regain their defensive form, they’ll be hard pressed to make any noise in the Big Dance.

Points, assists, turnovers, blocks, and steals listed per 100 individual possessions

BUTLER PLAYER STATS

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

Old Dominion had a decent stretch not too long ago where they were playing like a team that could pull off a big win. Recently they’ve regressed on both offense and defense, and they haven’t played an NCAA quality game (adjusted rating over .95) in their last 6. Lucky for them they’re playing Butler, one of the weaker 5 seeds, and also a team that’s not at the top of its game.

Points, assists, turnovers, blocks, and steals listed per 100 individual possessions

PLAYER STATS