Over the last 7 games, Oregon has averaged an eFG% of 59.5%, while holding their opponents to 45.2%. Compare that to their season averages of 53.4% and 49%, and you pretty much see the whole reason behind their recent success. In order to have a chance against Florida, they’re going to have to keep that up. Unlikely, because Florida is on an even better streak - since the start of the SEC tournament (6 games), Florida is averaging an eFG% of 59.9% while holding their opponents to 41.2%. That’s actually around their season average on offense, and a few points better on defense (they average 44.9%).

Oregon’s offensive success should really hinge on their 3-pt shooting. They shouldn’t turn the ball over much, as Florida doesn’t force many turnovers (19.4%, 264th), and Oregon doesn’t cough it up often (18.5%, 39th). They won’t get many 2nd chances, though, as Florida is 10th in the country in OR%, and Oregon has actually been below average recently. So there should be a lot of one-shot possessions for Oregon, and a LOT of those will be one 3-pt shot. The Ducks take 42.2% of their shots from 3-pt range (29th most), and hit them at a 39.1% rate (27th). Unfortunately for them, Florida allows the 2nd-lowest 3FG% in the country, at 28.9%. If they can hit shots despite Florida’s excellent perimeter defense, they have a chance. If not, they don’t.

When Florida has the ball, they should turn it over a little more often than Oregon, as Florida’s about average (20.5%, 125th) at turning it over, and Oregon’s about average at forcing them (21.5%, 148th). They should do decently on the offensive boards, though, to make up for it, as they’re better at rebounding at both ends of the floor than the Ducks. And unless something unexpected happens, they should shoot well. I doubt they’ll keep up their 59.5% eFG% average, but their offense is on an amazingly consistent, excellent streak, with 7 straight games of adjusted offensive efficiency of 125+. They should be able to keep their eFG% over 50%, and unless the Ducks are on fire from deep, that should be enough to win.

FIRST 3 GAMES ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Florida 75, Oregon 67
• Last 10 Prediction … Florida 71, Oregon 68
• Vs. Good Prediction … Florida 74, Oregon 67
• Trendline Prediction … Florida 70, Oregon 68
• Tourney So Far Prediction … Florida 78, Oregon 71

UPDATED GRAPHS

Florida team capsule

Oregon team capsule

I didn’t have either of these teams making it this far at this time last week.

Oregon is riding an atypically strong defensive run over the last six games with Miami, OH being the only team to score more than one point per possession. As impressive as the Ducks have been over the last two weeks, it should be remembered that, entering the regular season finale against Oregon State, Oregon had been outscored in Pac-10 play.

UNLV scored 108 points more than their MWC opponents, but almost half (50 points) of that positive scoring margin came in the three extra home games they got to play as part of the conference tournament. (The remaining 16 teams outscored conference opponents between 351 (Memphis—also with three extra home games) and 1 (Vanderbilt) point this year.)

Only the pace of play will keep this from being the highest-scoring Sweet 16 game. Both teams made it this far by outscoring their opponents. UNLV allowed 1.08 points per possession to Georgia Tech and 1.06 to the Brian Butch-less Wisconsin Badges. Oregon gave up 1.07 points per possession to the MAC’s fourth-place team in the first round and 0.99 points per possession to Winthrop despite the Eagles making just five free throws and missing 23 of their 31 three-point attempts.

Oregon has no depth (Joevan Catron is the only reserve expected to see extended action) but they have as good an offensive starting five as any team left in the tournament. Aaron Brooks, Tajuan Porter, Bryce Taylor, Malik Hairston, and Maarty Leunen each score at least 20 points per 100 possessions. And they score efficiently. Each of the five scores at least 1.17 points per weighted shot.

Barring foul trouble or in-game injury, Oregon’s lack of depth will only hurt them if Porter is unable to make shots. He doesn’t really do anything helpful other than score. He’s the only regular with an assist-to-turnover ratio below one and rebounds one-third as often as the next worst starter on the offensive glass, and one-half as often as the next worst starter on the defensive glass.

Oregon’s reliance on the three-point shot (42% of their field goal attempts on the year) may increase due to the presence of UNLV’s Joel Anthony (10.3 Blocks per 100 possessions) and Gaston Essengue (4 Blocks/100) in the paint. Increasing their reliance (even though it would only figure to amount to one or two extra three-point attempts over the course of the low-possession style Oregon favors) on the least consistent method of scoring may not hurt Oregon. The Ducks don’t usually get too many offensive rebounds, but UNLV has allowed four of their last ten opponents to get at least 40% of the possible offensive rebounds.

Because they’re a good offensive rebounding team and almost never turn the ball over, UNLV’s offense does not depend on making shots to the degree that Oregon’s offense does. Oregon is not especially adept at either forcing turnovers or (Maarty Leunen and Catron, excepted) controlling the defensive glass. If the Ducks allow (as they normally do their opponents) UNLV to make a higher-than-normal percentage of their shots and maintain their average rates of offensive rebounding and turnovers, the Oregon offense will be under tremendous pressure to keep up.

FIRST 2 GAMES ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Oregon 71, UNLV 69
• Last 10 Prediction … Oregon 67, UNLV 65
• Vs. Good Prediction … Oregon 70, UNLV 67
• Trendline Prediction … Oregon 69, UNLV 65
• Best 6 Prediction … Oregon 66, UNLV 61

UPDATED GRAPHS

Oregon team capsule

UNLV team capsule

1st ROUND GAME ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Oregon 70, Winthrop 64
• Last 10 Prediction … Oregon 71, Winthrop 61
• Vs. Good Prediction … Winthrop 69, Oregon 67
• Trendline Prediction … Oregon 68, Winthrop 56
• Best 6 Prediction … Oregon 67, Winthrop 59

UPDATED GRAPHS

Oregon team capsule

Winthrop team capsule

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Oregon 65, Miami (OH) 57
• Last 10 Prediction … Oregon 62, Miami (OH) 54
• Vs. Good Prediction … Oregon 63, Miami (OH) 55
• Trendline Prediction … Oregon 60, Miami (OH) 49
• Best 6 Prediction … Oregon 59, Miami (OH) 48

explanation

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

Oregon is one of the hottest teams in the country, the hottest in the Midwest region according to the trendline stats. The offense continues to climb, and their defense is back to early season form. Believe it or not, Oregon is very similar to last year’s Florida team:

• Make it to conference play undefeated? Check.
• Lose first conference game against a top-50 opponent? Check.
• 3 game losing streak late in conference play? Check.
• Finish in a three-way tie for third? Check.
• Win conference tournament? Check
• Best 4-game stretch (ratings-wise) comes in last 4 pre-NCAA-tourney games? Check.
• Get #3 seed in tournament? Check.
• Get to play close to home in first 2 rounds? Check.
• Draw a pod with a popular 11-over-6 upset pick? Check.
• Top-20 offense? Check.
• Top-20 defense? NOOOOOOOOO.

Only a top-50 defense. Sorry Ducks fans.

Points, assists, turnovers, blocks, and steals listed per 100 individual possessions

PLAYER STATS

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

Miami’s offense has undergone consistent improvemen throughout the year, and 10 out of their last 12 games have been above average. Their defense had been getting worse at the same rate, making me wonder if the changes were actually do to errors in the possession data, but recently the D has slightly improved. This is a team trending in the right direction and peaking at the right time. Unfortunately for them, they’re up against one of the hottest teams in the field in Oregon.

Points, assists, turnovers, blocks, and steals listed per 100 individual possessions

PLAYER STATS