EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Texas A&M 78, Penn 60
• Last 10 Prediction … Texas A&M 78, Penn 59
• Vs. Good Prediction … Texas A&M 84, Penn 62
• Trendline Prediction … Texas A&M 74, Penn 62
• Best 6 Prediction … Texas A&M 83, Penn 61

explanation

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

Texas A&M’s defense is one of the best in the country, and if they make a deep run in the tournament, it will be the defense that anchors the run, or so goes the conventional wisdom. But looking at the graph, their defense has been less dominant lately, and even threw up a couple bad games (although one was against Kevin Durant, so they get a mulligan). Meanwhile the offense has been great, thanks to a reduction in their turnover rate. Their loss to Oklahoma State in the Big 12 tournament is less worrisome than it first appears, considering that the game was in Oklahoma City (and that Oklahoma State gave Texas a run for its money the next day). Whether it’s their offense or defense leading the way, the Aggies are one of the top teams in the tourney by pretty much any measure.

Points, assists, turnovers, blocks, and steals listed per 100 individual possessions

PLAYER STATS

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

Penn is playing their best defense of the season, with 6 of their past 9 games under 95 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Their offense is on a slight decline, precipitated by a decline in offensive rebounding, but still above average in 4 of the last 5 games. Against above average teams, the offense performs fine, but the defense struggles. Their best hope of an upset will be if they face a team that sometimes struggles to score. That way the opponent can take themselves out of the game offensively, instead of Penn having to do it.

Points, assists, turnovers, blocks, and steals listed per 100 individual possessions

PENN PLAYER STATS