Archive for the 'Stanford' Category

Upsets By The Numbers

Mar 14, 2007 in monologue, Winthrop, Niagara, Arizona, Purdue, Notre Dame, TAMUCC, Virginia Tech, Illinois, VCU, Pittsburgh, Wright St., North Carolina, Eastern Kentucky, USC, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, George Washington, Georgetown, Belmont, Virginia, Albany, Stanford, Nevada, Creighton, Game-Probability Predictions, Trendline Analysis

When I fill out a bracket for an NCAA tournament pool (entered for pride only, no $$ exchanged of course), I’m obviously hoping in vain to get every game right. Not gonna happen. I have two other main goals (besides winning the pool): picking the Final Four correctly, and calling the first round […]

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Louisville - Stanford Preview

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

  • Full Season Prediction … Louisville 67, Stanford 63
  • Last 10 Prediction … Louisville 68, Stanford 61
  • Vs. Good Prediction … Louisville 68, Stanford 62
  • Trendline Prediction … Louisville 73, Stanford 65
  • Best 6 Prediction … Louisville 67, Stanford 61

explanation

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

  Tempo Rnk Offense Rnk Defense Rnk Overall Rnk
Overall 64.9 46 115.0 26 88.5 16 .9540 14
Vs. Good 64.4 46 114.7 31 90.1 19 .9410 23
Trendline 61.6 55 130.2 2 96.4 35 .9693 11
Last 10 62.2 53 123.1 6 90.7 17 .9710 9
Best 6 62.1 57 126.3 12 87.3 29 .9859 13

Louisville’s offensive improvement is staggering. They’ve improved from below averageto a point where they’re playing like a top-10 offense by reducing turnovers and shooting a higher eFG%. The “Vs. Good” numbers are a little low, but only because they include that early-season bad stretch. The improvement has come against good teams, so the Cardinals needn’t be worried. Their defense has held steady at around an 85 to 90 adjusted efficiency all season. Louisville seems to be peaking at exactly the right time, and the committee has given them 1st and 2nd round games in their own backyard. Cardinals fans ought to be excited about this team’s chances.

Points, assists, turnovers, blocks, and steals listed per 100 individual possessions

PLAYER STATS

Name %Min eFG% FT% PPWS Pts A TO BS S OR% DR%
Williams 82.4 42.8 60.9 0.90 23.1 7.2 4.3 1.3 2.3 7.2 16.7
Sosa 62.0 47.7 68.0 1.03 26.5 6.7 4.9 0.4 3.3 1.7 7.6
Padgett 61.4 59.1 83.5 1.34 23.8 3.7 2.3 3.9 1.0 13.2 12.8
Jenkins 59.6 43.4 63.4 0.93 13.4 4.6 2.9 0.2 2.7 2.4 8.7
Smith 49.9 61.4 79.5 1.28 24.2 5.0 4.3 0.3 3.0 6.8 14.0
Palacios 48.2 52.4 70.5 1.14 23.2 3.0 4.2 1.3 2.8 8.1 18.4
Clark 35.8 52.7 58.6 1.10 23.6 1.6 2.9 1.5 2.2 9.7 17.4
McGee 22.0 31.2 68.8 0.71 12.0 5.3 5.8 0.0 2.7 2.4 6.6
Scott 18.5 53.5 84.6 1.19 26.2 2.1 1.9 0.0 0.5 4.3 6.9
Caracter 16.2 55.2 43.6 1.08 34.0 1.5 7.8 1.8 1.2 19.2 13.9
Johnson 11.6 53.1 46.2 1.06 12.2 3.4 3.4 2.1 2.1 6.1 12.5

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

  Tempo Rnk Offense Rnk Defense Rnk Overall Rnk
Overall 66.8 35 110.5 43 92.2 27 .8900 39
Vs. Good 66.2 34 110.6 43 94.2 35 .8640 43
Trendline 65.1 37 114.4 37 95.8 33 .8855 35
Last 10 65.2 36 113.5 40 92.9 26 .9094 33
Best 6 65.5 37 117.2 35 88.6 38 .9618 40

Stanford’s defense has played consistently all year, at a slightly better than average level. Their offense has improved in the latter half of the year, thanks largely to Brook Lopez. Offensive / Defensive / Overall:

  • Lopez plays less than 20 min … 104.0 / 93.1 / .7799
  • Lopez plays more than 20 min … 114.0 / 93.0 / .9122

The Cardinal are in the midst of their longest streak of the year of games with an above average offense and defense. If they can maintain their defensive performance, the huge Lopez may make them a tough out.

Points, assists, turnovers, blocks, and steals listed per 100 individual possessions

PLAYER STATS

Name %Min eFG% FT% PPWS Pts A TO BS S OR% DR%
Hill 77.5 58.0 72.2 1.22 30.6 3.5 3.3 2.1 1.4 6.5 14.9
Washington 74.2 52.8 62.7 1.15 16.6 7.5 5.1 0.7 1.5 8.7 10.8
Goods 66.8 48.6 76.7 1.07 23.7 4.2 4.2 0.0 1.3 0.7 10.3
R Lopez 59.7 48.5 56.2 1.01 19.3 2.3 3.8 6.0 0.4 12.3 13.9
Johnson 58.4 42.4 82.1 0.93 11.4 8.7 5.1 0.0 2.5 0.7 12.5
B Lopez 50.7 50.0 70.5 1.05 30.4 2.0 5.0 4.4 1.1 8.0 19.1
Fields 33.4 43.3 66.7 0.91 17.4 3.1 3.4 0.6 1.0 6.1 13.3
Finger 32.5 48.3 80.0 1.12 18.2 2.6 4.3 2.3 1.4 11.0 13.4

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