Archive for the 'TAMUCC' Category

Upsets By The Numbers

Mar 14, 2007 in monologue, Winthrop, Niagara, Arizona, Purdue, Notre Dame, TAMUCC, Virginia Tech, Illinois, VCU, Pittsburgh, Wright St., North Carolina, Eastern Kentucky, USC, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, George Washington, Georgetown, Belmont, Virginia, Albany, Stanford, Nevada, Creighton, Game-Probability Predictions, Trendline Analysis

When I fill out a bracket for an NCAA tournament pool (entered for pride only, no $$ exchanged of course), I’m obviously hoping in vain to get every game right. Not gonna happen. I have two other main goals (besides winning the pool): picking the Final Four correctly, and calling the first round […]

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Wisconsin - Texas A&M Corpus Christi Preview

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

  • Full Season Prediction … Wisconsin 80, Texas A&M CC 62
  • Last 10 Prediction … Wisconsin 79, Texas A&M CC 59
  • Vs. Good Prediction … Wisconsin 79, Texas A&M CC 62
  • Trendline Prediction … Wisconsin 74, Texas A&M CC 57
  • Best 6 Prediction … Wisconsin 76, Texas A&M CC 59

explanation

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

  Tempo Rnk Offense Rnk Defense Rnk Overall Rnk
Overall 64.3 51 117.2 19 84.9 4 .9760 7
Vs. Good 64.5 43 117.5 22 86.2 4 .9723 7
Trendline 59.7 57 109.7 46 82.9 5 .9614 14
Last 10 61.6 57 116.1 30 84.9 5 .9735 8
Best 6 67.3 26 123.3 20 79.3 6 .9938 5

The Badgers lost great rebounder Brian Butch to an elbow injury four games ago. People were worried this would be a huge blow to Wisconsin, but they’ve managed OK without him. Their defense has actually been slightly better. They’ve allowed teams to shoot a little better but made up for it by better rebounding (?!) and forcing more turnovers. Their offense has been less consistent in the 4 games he’s missed, and a little less effective. But they’ve also played all those games against teams in the top 15 in adjusted defense for the season. They won’t face a defense like that again unless they make a fairly deep tournament run (which they’re supposed to do, being a 2 seed).

Points, assists, turnovers, blocks, and steals listed per 100 individual possessions

WISCONSIN PLAYER STATS

Name %Min eFG% FT% PPWS Pts A TO BS S OR% DR%
Taylor 81.2 52.1 77.7 1.16 24.9 3.7 3.2 0.1 0.9 1.8 6.7
Tucker 81.1 51.2 65.0 1.10 39.1 4.0 3.5 0.6 1.8 8.5 11.9
Flowers 74.1 51.7 73.4 1.14 15.5 6.4 3.0 0.5 3.5 4.2 11.7
Krabbenhoft 50.5 54.0 71.6 1.19 15.8 5.2 3.3 0.3 1.8 14.5 20.1
Landry 47.0 56.8 55.0 1.15 19.9 2.8 4.1 2.9 1.6 8.2 12.0
Chappell 37.1 44.0 64.4 0.99 12.9 5.2 3.2 1.3 1.4 8.2 14.7
Bohannon 31.2 56.0 81.5 1.21 18.6 4.7 3.0 0.3 1.2 2.4 8.5
Stiemsma 22.8 50.0 78.3 1.13 14.0 7.0 6.8 5.9 0.6 4.4 14.7
Hughes 15.8 42.4 75.0 1.00 11.9 3.0 5.3 0.0 3.2 1.2 15.0
Butch 42.8 51.5 58.5 1.08 29.1 2.1 3.6 1.5 1.1 12.1 25.1

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

  Tempo Rnk Offense Rnk Defense Rnk Overall Rnk
Overall 68.9 16 110.7 42 105.5 62 .6360 55
Vs. Good 69.9 9 108.4 48 102.2 61 .6645 54
Trendline 70.4 6 111.4 43 109.5 62 .5515 60
Last 10 68.8 9 111.2 46 109.6 63 .5431 60
Best 6 67.3 24 111.9 51 93.2 50 .8905 49

Texas A&M Corpus Christi has a decent offense, a bad defense, and little shot at winning a game in the tourney because of their seeding. I think they should have been a 14. Lucky for them, they draw the weakest 2 seed. They can dream, at least.

Points, assists, turnovers, blocks, and steals listed per 100 individual possessions

TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI PLAYER STATS

Name %Min eFG% FT% PPWS Pts A TO BS S OR% DR%
Ervin 66.6 51.5 74.7 1.16 17.1 7.8 4.8 0.1 2.9 2.9 11.7
Daniels 65.2 60.5 70.0 1.28 34.2 1.8 4.9 3.6 1.5 9.6 20.8
Washington 60.6 69.3 90.2 1.45 31.0 3.4 3.7 0.1 1.7 1.1 6.4
Menifee 58.6 56.0 66.2 1.20 15.6 7.9 5.8 0.7 2.1 14.1 16.0
Mitchell 57.3 48.4 83.3 1.13 17.6 10.0 5.9 0.0 4.1 1.0 10.1
Smith 53.6 60.2 71.3 1.30 27.0 2.6 3.7 0.5 1.0 9.5 10.3
Johnson 51.7 59.9 62.7 1.24 25.2 2.2 3.7 0.7 1.8 10.3 17.1
Engelken 35.8 51.5 72.1 1.12 18.4 5.9 4.7 0.4 1.9 5.7 10.3
Nelson 12.8 57.1 58.3 1.18 23.5 0.4 6.4 3.0 1.9 23.6 16.4

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