Everybody loves a rematch.

At least I do.

The last time these two teams played both teams shot poorly, combining to shoot 6-39 on jump shots. Both teams made a lot of money with layups and dunks, but ultimately, OSU prevailed at home 68-66. Judging by that game alone, one would expect a very close game. And one is probably right to do so. Tennessee is a better team than they were during UT - OSU round one, and HTB’s trendline analysis predicts an almost identical score of 68-65, still in favor of the Buckeyes.

But for UT, Wayne Chism has emerged as a dynamic presence, perhaps the answer everyone’s looking for to the question of who can drag Greg Oden from his position in the post and open up the lane for penetration by UT’s guards.

Despite looking pretty unimpressive in beating Xavier, OSU should win this game, but not by much. The crowd will probably be behind UT, which may give them energy to overcome what should be a slight disadvantage relative to the much hyped Buckeyes.

FIRST 2 GAMES ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Ohio St. 79, Tennessee 70
• Last 10 Prediction … Ohio St. 71, Tennessee 68
• Vs. Good Prediction … Ohio St. 77, Tennessee 70
• Trendline Prediction … Ohio St. 68, Tennessee 65
• Best 6 Prediction … Ohio St. 78, Tennessee 70

UPDATED GRAPHS

Ohio St. team capsule

Tennessee team capsule

1st ROUND GAME ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Tennessee 81, Virginia 79
• Last 10 Prediction … Tennessee 76, Virginia 71
• Vs. Good Prediction … Tennessee 79, Virginia 76
• Trendline Prediction … Tennessee 75, Virginia 69
• Best 6 Prediction … Virginia 77, Tennessee 77

UPDATED GRAPHS

Virginia team capsule

Tennessee team capsule

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Tennessee 91, Long Beach St. 78
• Last 10 Prediction … Tennessee 95, Long Beach St. 78
• Vs. Good Prediction … Tennessee 89, Long Beach St. 68
• Trendline Prediction … Tennessee 95, Long Beach St. 79
• Best 6 Prediction … Tennessee 84, Long Beach St. 71

explanation

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

That dip you see in the middle of Tennessee’s offensive graph came with Chris Lofton out. Since his return, the offense has been fine, and the defense is playing as well as it has at any point this year (the SEC tournament loss to LSU notwithstanding). Neither unit is very consistent, though - their longest streak with both the offense and defense playing better than average was 4 games - the last 4. That streak will have to continue in order for Tennessee to make any noise in the tournament.

Points, assists, turnovers, blocks, and steals listed per 100 individual possessions

PLAYER STATS

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

The offense and defense for Long Beach State have followed nearly the same track over the year, which indicates a tendency to let up on one end when they’re performing well on the other. They don’t have the killer instinct necessary for championship teams. Of course, they also don’t have the required skill, so it’s kind of a moot point. A 12-seed seems ridiculously high to me, and I see no reason to think they’ll prove the selection committee right. Take a look at their ratings against good teams - not good at all.

Points, assists, turnovers, blocks, and steals listed per 100 individual possessions

LONG BEACH STATE PLAYER STATS