This one is a battle of genres…Memphis is a Mystery and Texas A&M is a Western, complete with a hero who has made more big shots in the last half of the season than most teams do in a decade. Statistically speaking, this game is a wash. Texas A&M has played a little bit better over the course of the season, but Memphis is on the rise and gaining respectability as they’ve emerged from the close-lit caves of Conference USA to the bright lights of the Big Dance.

Complicating predictions is the fact that both teams are probably a little misunderstood. Gillespie’s Aggies are broadly known for their defensive prowess, but they’ve actually been a better offensive (or oh-ffensive if you’re Rick Majerus, and if you are Rick Majerus, you are probably not reading this) team than defensive over the last half of the season. Similarly, or maybe oppositely, people tend to think of Memphis as a running, gunning group of athletes. But they’re actually really good defensively.

Memphis does play faster than A&M, but A&M is better at scoring once they get in a half court set.

If Chris Douglas-Roberts plays for Memphis, it will be a close, entertaining game, with the edge going in the end to the more experienced, more battle-tested Aggies. They do have Acie Law (and a maroon caravan from San Anton to College Station) on their side, and in a close game, there’s not a better player in America. If CDR can’t go, the Aggies should win by 6-8 points.

FIRST 2 GAMES ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Texas A&M 69, Memphis 66
• Last 10 Prediction … Texas A&M 68, Memphis 65
• Vs. Good Prediction … Texas A&M 67, Memphis 66
• Trendline Prediction … Memphis 67, Texas A&M 67
• Best 6 Prediction … Texas A&M 69, Memphis 65

UPDATED GRAPHS

Memphis team capsule

Texas A&M team capsule

Against Stanford, Louisville showed that their relatively poor offensive showing in the previous game (in the Big East tournament against Georgetown) was just a momentary blip in an otherwise excellent stretch. Their defense turned in another solid performance, and the game was never close. If they play as well against Texas A&M, they’ve got a good chance of advancing to the Sweet 16.

Texas A&M was down midway through the 2nd half in their game against Penn before pulling away late. Most of the blame for the game being close can be placed on their offense, which had been their strength lately. They need to bounce back against Louisville, especially with the game being played in Kentucky.

They way the tams have been playing lately, combined with the home-state crowd, gives the edge to Louisville.

1st ROUND GAME ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Texas A&M 66, Louisville 61
• Last 10 Prediction … Louisville 69, Texas A&M 67
• Vs. Good Prediction … Texas A&M 66, Louisville 62
• Trendline Prediction … Louisville 76, Texas A&M 67
• Best 6 Prediction … Texas A&M 66, Louisville 62

UPDATED GRAPHS

Texas A&M team capsule

Louisville team capsule

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Texas A&M 78, Penn 60
• Last 10 Prediction … Texas A&M 78, Penn 59
• Vs. Good Prediction … Texas A&M 84, Penn 62
• Trendline Prediction … Texas A&M 74, Penn 62
• Best 6 Prediction … Texas A&M 83, Penn 61

explanation

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

Texas A&M’s defense is one of the best in the country, and if they make a deep run in the tournament, it will be the defense that anchors the run, or so goes the conventional wisdom. But looking at the graph, their defense has been less dominant lately, and even threw up a couple bad games (although one was against Kevin Durant, so they get a mulligan). Meanwhile the offense has been great, thanks to a reduction in their turnover rate. Their loss to Oklahoma State in the Big 12 tournament is less worrisome than it first appears, considering that the game was in Oklahoma City (and that Oklahoma State gave Texas a run for its money the next day). Whether it’s their offense or defense leading the way, the Aggies are one of the top teams in the tourney by pretty much any measure.

Points, assists, turnovers, blocks, and steals listed per 100 individual possessions

PLAYER STATS

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

Penn is playing their best defense of the season, with 6 of their past 9 games under 95 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Their offense is on a slight decline, precipitated by a decline in offensive rebounding, but still above average in 4 of the last 5 games. Against above average teams, the offense performs fine, but the defense struggles. Their best hope of an upset will be if they face a team that sometimes struggles to score. That way the opponent can take themselves out of the game offensively, instead of Penn having to do it.

Points, assists, turnovers, blocks, and steals listed per 100 individual possessions

PENN PLAYER STATS