Archive for the 'Texas' Category

Sunday Viewing Guide

Mar 18, 2007 in monologue, Winthrop, Southern Illinois, Florida, Purdue, Oregon, UNLV, Wisconsin, Kentucky, Virginia Tech, Kansas, USC, Texas, Tennessee, Virginia, Nevada, Memphis, Viewing Guide

12:10 PM: #4 Virginia vs. #5 Tennessee
40 MINUTE GAME OF HORSE. Both of these teams played great on offense and poor on defense in the first round. The reason the scores look so different is all about the tempo and opponent. Both teams are likely to improve their defensive performance a bit, […]

1

Texas - USC Preview

1st ROUND GAME ADJ. EFFICIENCY

  Tempo Offense Defense Overall
Texas 64.5 119.1 92.7 0.9471
USC 63.6 135.1 84.7 0.9953

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

  • Full Season Prediction … Texas 74, USC 71
  • Last 10 Prediction … Texas 79, USC 69
  • Vs. Good Prediction … Texas 77, USC 72
  • Trendline Prediction … Texas 82, USC 69
  • Best 6 Prediction … Texas 74, USC 69

UPDATED GRAPHS

Texas team capsule

USC team capsule

0

Texas - New Mexico St. Preview

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

  • Full Season Prediction … Texas 86, New Mexico St. 72
  • Last 10 Prediction … Texas 83, New Mexico St. 66
  • Vs. Good Prediction … Texas 84, New Mexico St. 73
  • Trendline Prediction … Texas 84, New Mexico St. 63
  • Best 6 Prediction … Texas 92, New Mexico St. 69

explanation

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

  Tempo Rnk Offense Rnk Defense Rnk Overall Rnk
Overall 68.5 19 122.1 4 93.9 37 .9530 16
Vs. Good 67.4 22 124.9 1 96.7 48 .9501 17
Trendline 67.1 21 127.0 5 88.0 14 .9856 5
Last 10 67.1 17 125.5 2 90.5 15 .9773 5
Best 6 66.4 31 130.8 4 88.3 36 .9892 10

Texas is the new Georgetown. In other words, they’re a surging team, playing at an elite level, driven by a virtually unstoppable offense paired with a good-but-not-great defense. If you don’t know who Kevin Durant is, then I don’t really understand how you found this write-up. The offense will get its points in the tournament, no matter who they face. Whether Texas gets knocked out in round two or cuts down the nets in Atlanta (they have the best chance of any 4 seed) will be determined by how the defense plays. It’s been 11 games since they had a truly poor defensive showing, but they’ve had very few very good showings in the meantime. They are showing some improvement, though, and if that trend continues into the tournament, then nobody will want to face them. Not that anybody particularly does right now, anyway.

TEXAS PLAYER STATS

Name %Min eFG% FT% PPWS Pts A TO BS S OR% DR%
Durant 86.5 53.9 81.0 1.19 41.6 2.2 4.5 3.1 3.0 9.4 24.0
Augustin 86.0 52.3 82.8 1.20 23.7 11.2 5.3 0.1 2.5 1.9 6.5
Abrams 85.7 52.9 92.0 1.13 25.2 2.5 2.2 0.2 2.1 2.0 5.2
Mason 71.1 50.9 57.1 1.05 15.3 3.8 2.8 0.2 1.3 5.0 8.2
James 65.1 50.5 60.2 1.08 17.9 2.1 3.2 2.7 1.4 10.1 18.4
Atchley 43.0 49.5 52.6 1.03 12.7 2.1 2.3 4.6 1.3 10.4 12.5
Hill 19.0 42.9 58.8 1.00 11.2 0.4 1.3 3.4 0.7 11.8 11.3
Winder 14.7 50.0 73.7 1.11 16.5 4.6 1.7 0.6 6.1 12.5 13.5
Pittman 11.4 60.4 47.1 1.18 27.7 0.7 4.1 3.7 1.9 19.6 16.1

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

  Tempo Rnk Offense Rnk Defense Rnk Overall Rnk
Overall 70.6 8 107.3 49 98.5 51 .7280 51
Vs. Good 69.1 14 110.3 45 97.9 54 .7987 49
Trendline 68.0 18 107.6 49 99.1 47 .7194 53
Last 10 68.9 8 107.0 55 97.9 43 .7350 53
Best 6 71.6 2 112.3 49 101.1 61 .7705 57

New Mexico State’s defense at the beginning of the year was exactly average for Division I (in other words, not good for a tournament team). It’s improved oh-so-slightly over the year, but is still not too great. Their offense is a little better, but not that much. One optimistic note is that the offense has had 3 good games in a row (by their standards). By my reckoning, they are about the quality of a 14-seed. They got seeded at 13, and I don’t expect them to win a game.

stats glossary

Points, assists, turnovers, blocks, and steals listed per 100 individual possessions

NEW MEXICO STATE PLAYER STATS

Name %Min eFG% FT% PPWS Pts A TO BS S OR% DR%
Hawkins 81.6 53.0 69.4 1.15 26.4 3.6 4.5 0.6 2.0 8.2 14.8
Ingram 63.6 53.2 84.1 1.19 22.1 5.2 7.0 0.1 1.3 1.1 7.4
Peete 60.8 46.8 67.3 1.04 19.5 5.2 3.5 0.4 3.1 4.5 12.3
Nelson 53.1 52.0 67.2 1.14 23.6 4.1 5.0 0.7 2.8 11.1 14.6
Passos 49.9 61.4 60.7 1.28 20.8 1.8 4.6 1.3 1.7 12.9 18.3
Davis 49.8 50.3 63.6 1.08 18.1 5.8 3.2 0.0 2.1 2.9 6.7
Fisher 41.6 49.6 66.3 1.12 20.8 3.1 7.1 0.5 1.9 10.4 19.2
Iti 36.9 62.6 36.1 1.15 21.8 1.4 4.8 4.5 1.3 12.8 18.0
Knauber 36.2 62.4 80.0 1.29 19.5 2.2 2.2 0.5 1.4 2.7 5.9

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