UCLA will have a more difficult defensive task facing Florida than they did in the regional final against Kansas. Florida, like the Jayhawks, turns the ball over more often than ideal but they make far more shots, both from the field and from the free throw line than UCLA’s most recent vanquished foe. Which is nice for the Gators because the way UCLA is playing defense, a typically high level of offensive competency appears to be the necessary starting point if a team hopes not to embarrass itself.

Each of Florida’s starters averages at least 20 Pts/100. With the exception of Lee Humphrey, each of Florida’s starters averages at least 4.6 A/100. Taurean Green and Lee Humprey both make over 40% of their three-point attempts and 50% of their two-point attempts. Al Horford and Joakim Noah both make over 60% of their field goal attempts while getting 12.1% and 13.6% of possible offensive rebounds, respectively, while they’re on the court. Corey Brewer has slumped from behind the three-point line in the last three games (2-13) to bring his 3PTFG% down to 31.1, but he makes 55% of his two-point attempts, 71.4% of his free throws and averages 6.5 A/100.

That potent five is backed up by Walter Hodge (who comes off the bench to make half his threes, 58% of his twos (at a rate of 19.5 Pts/100), and chip in 5.1 A/100) and Chris Richard (who shoots 67.7% from the field, scoring 19.4 Pts/100, and getting 10.8% of possible offensive rebounds).

On the other hand, Florida won’t trouble UCLA with the degree of defensive pressure Kansas applied, either. Florida has allowed each of their last three opponents to score at least a point per possession and hasn’t forced turnovers on even 19% of their opponents’ possessions since they played Georgia in the SEC Tournament.

As it took a 62.2 eFG% performance, grabbing 41.7% of their offensive rebound opportunities, and Kansas fouling intentionally at the end of the game to get UCLA up to exactly one point per possession in the regional final, Florida’s inability to force turnovers could come in hand if UCLA fails to bring the Florida offense down to the Bruins’ level. UCLA could realistically halve the 36.8 TO% they posted in the regional final.

Florida’s defensive strengths lie in keeping their opponents off the free throw line and the offensive glass. UCLA doesn’t really excel in either of those areas typically. They beat Indiana and Pittsburgh despite getting just 25% of possible offensive rebounds over the two games. The Bruins’ good offensive performances are usually driven by good shooting and taking care of the ball, an obviously effective combination in general, but one that could, in particular, take advantage of Florida’s relative defensive weaknesses.

UCLA might not be playing this weekend were it not for Arron Afflalo’s ability to make tough shots. Unfortunately for Afflalo, he’ll attempt to continue to do so against the one wing who is unarguably a better defender than Brandon Rush.

Even if Brewer succeeds in keeping Afflalo from again shooting 76.6 eFG%, Josh Shipp and Darren Collison should improve their effectiveness and efficiency simply by not combining to turn the ball over 12 times again.

Largely unnoticed, UCLA has received excellent production in limited minutes from Michael Roll (4-6 FGA, 3-5 3PTA in 28 minutes) and Russell Westbrook (5-6 FGA in 15 minutes) off the bench over the last three games.

FIRST 4 GAMES ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Florida 65, UCLA 64
• Last 10 Prediction … Florida 64, UCLA 63
• Vs. Good Prediction … Florida 66, UCLA 65
• Trendline Prediction … Florida 61, UCLA 61
• Tourney So Far Prediction … UCLA 63, Florida 57

UPDATED GRAPHS

Florida team capsule

UCLA team capsule

This should look a whole lot like the previous round games for these teams. UCLA is playing the best defense in the tourney, and will try to slow down Kansas, just like Southern Illinois did.

The efficiency predictions look quite sensible. UCLA has played slightly better in the three NCAA Tournament games but Kansas was playing slightly better at the end of the regular season/during the conference tournament.

If Kansas can return to their normal levels of turnovers committed and defensive rebounds garnered, they’ll be dangerous for UCLA. Despite an outstanding defensive performance overall from Southern Illinois, Kansas did shoot 60.7 eFG% and that was their worst shooting performance of the tournament so far. UCLA (70.4 DR% on the season) should, however, be able to keep Kansas off the offensive glass when the Jayhawks do miss a shot.

The biggest problem UCLA will pose for Kansas is deciding which of Arron Afflalo or Josh Shipp Brandon Rush will guard down the stretch. Shipp’s numbers are certainly helped by the attention Afflalo draws from opposing defenses, but they aren’t really that different.

If it comes down to free throw shooting, expect both fan bases to be covering their eyes. Kansas and UCLA both shoot 66.3% from the line on the year.

FIRST 3 GAMES ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Kansas 65, UCLA 63
• Last 10 Prediction … Kansas 68, UCLA 63
• Vs. Good Prediction … Kansas 67, UCLA 66
• Trendline Prediction … Kansas 66, UCLA 61
• Tourney So Far Prediction … UCLA 62, Kansas 60

UPDATED GRAPHS

Kansas team capsule

UCLA team capsule

This game is as close to a toss-up as you can get. Two teams of roughly equal ability, whose coaches are familiar with each other, who both hope to play at a slow pace, and have only the slightest differences in how they win games. Factor in that both team’s most significant worry offensively is converting free throw chances and I figure that any single play could be plucked from the game action Thursday night and used to explain one team’s narrow victory or loss.

The thing that made UCLA slightly better than Pittsburgh over the course of the year was the Bruins ability to force turnovers. UCLA forced turnovers on 24% of opponents’ possessions in all games and 22% of their Pac-10 opponents’ possessions. Pittsburgh forced turnovers on just 19.2% of their opponents’ possessions in all games. Though they did bump that up to 20.3% in Big East play, in their first two NCAA tournament games, the Panthers forced just 15 turnovers over 169 defensive possessions.

Due to the lack of turnovers, both Wright State and VCU attempted 14 more field goals than Pittsburgh while the Panthers attempted just 12 more free throws than their opponents over the course of the two games. As it’s unlikely that Pittsburgh will be able to shoot 60 eFG% against UCLA (though both Cal and BYU managed to do so in Pauley Pavilion this year), should Pittsburgh again allow far more field goal attempts than they manage themselves they will need to excel in all other facets of play to remain competitive.

Though UCLA has struggled to make shots over their last five games (all played away from home), Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Lorenzo Mata, and Alfred Aboya each get at least 10% of the available offensive rebounds when they’re on the floor. Pittsburgh relies on Aaron Gray (25.5 DR%) to do the bulk of their defensive rebounding. The Panthers could be at a decided disadvantage on the defensive glass when Gray is on the bench.

With the exception of their two games against Georgetown, Pittsburgh has been outstanding offensively over their last 10 games. With the exception of their two games against Cal, UCLA has been equally outstanding defensively. Over the course of the season, UCLA demonstrated a greater sustained ability to play good offense than Pittsburgh demonstrated they could play good defense. Taken together (and, if you wish to do so, giving UCLA some benefit for playing in their home state), I’d expect that to mean that UCLA wins this game 6 out of 10 times, though the pace of play may minimize the slight advantages UCLA possesses.

FIRST 2 GAMES ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … UCLA 63, Pittsburgh 60
• Last 10 Prediction … UCLA 63, Pittsburgh 61
• Vs. Good Prediction … UCLA 64, Pittsburgh 62
• Trendline Prediction … UCLA 61, Pittsburgh 58
• Best 6 Prediction … UCLA 62, Pittsburgh 62

UPDATED GRAPHS

UCLA team capsule

Pittsburgh team capsule