So far USC has been the most impressive team in the tournament. Their offense has been on par with UNC’s, and their defense has been substantially better. They’ve done it by 1) crashing the offensive boards, 2) not turning the ball over, and 3) shutting down the other team’s point guards. These may be good signs, as 1) UNC was dominated on the boards in their last 2 losses, 2) their main “weakness” on defense is that they only force turnovers at an average rate, and 3) well, just read the next paragraph.

On Sunday, USC’s Gabe Pruitt used his advantage in size and experience (he’s a 6′4″ junior) to frustrate and shut down DJ Augustin, the 5′11″ freshman point guard, and 3rd-leading scorer, for one of the most explosive offenses in the country. Guess who Pruitt will be guarding on Friday… Ty Lawson, the 5′11″ freshman point guard, and 4th-leading scorer, for one of the most explosive offenses in the country. Augustin finished 1-8 from the field, with as many turnovers as points (6 each). If Pruitt can force Lawson into a similarly dismal day, USC’s chances of pulling off an upset against North Carolina rise substantially. Unfortunately for the Trojans, Carolina has more weapons than Texas. Whereas Augustin was part of an essentially three-pronged attack, the Tarheels start 5 players who all contribute substantially to the offense. So shutting down Lawson won’t have the same crippling effect.

Besides their multi-dimensional offense, UNC also has one of the better defenses in the country, although one that has been in a bit of a lull since their loss at NC State a little over a month ago. Their main problem is that they’re letting opponents shoot better. They’re only 7-5 in games where the opponent has an eFG% of at least 50%, 23-1 otherwise. USC has broken that the 50% barrier in 12 of their past 15 games. In the last month, against teams who are as good or better than UNC in eFG% allowed, USC has shot above 50 eFG% in 4 out of 5 games.

As I mentioned earlier, North Carolina’s main “weakness” on defense is that they only force turnovers at an average rate. The opponent stat that happens to correlate most closely to wins and losses this year for USC is … TO% forced. Against major-conference opponents, USC is 4-8 against teams who force more turnovers on average than UNC. They’re 10-3 against teams who force less. Carolina’s right on the tipping point.

So while USC obviously has a tough task ahead of them, they are well-suited to take advantage of a couple of UNC’s weaknesses, and may have a surprise strength of their own in Pruitt’s defense. The score predictions indicate we should expect a 5 to 12 point Carolina win. I see it ending up a lot like the UNC-Michigan St. game - close in the 2nd half, but UNC pulls away late.

FIRST 2 GAMES ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … North Carolina 81, USC 69
• Last 10 Prediction … North Carolina 84, USC 74
• Vs. Good Prediction … North Carolina 81, USC 69
• Trendline Prediction … North Carolina 87, USC 82
• Best 6 Prediction … North Carolina 75, USC 63

UPDATED GRAPHS

North Carolina team capsule

USC team capsule

1st ROUND GAME ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Texas 74, USC 71
• Last 10 Prediction … Texas 79, USC 69
• Vs. Good Prediction … Texas 77, USC 72
• Trendline Prediction … Texas 82, USC 69
• Best 6 Prediction … Texas 74, USC 69

UPDATED GRAPHS

Texas team capsule

USC team capsule

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Arkansas 67, USC 66
• Last 10 Prediction … Arkansas 72, USC 69
• Vs. Good Prediction … Arkansas 69, USC 66
• Trendline Prediction … Arkansas 78, USC 68
• Best 6 Prediction … USC 67, Arkansas 67

explanation

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

Junior guard Gabe Pruitt missed USC’s first 11 games. As you can see from the graph, his return led to an almost immediate improvement in the teams offense, without hurting the defense one bit. However, the loss to Stanford January 25th was a turning point for the team, and not in a good way. Their putrid offensive showing that game may have led to an increased focus on offense in practice (or at least in the players’ minds), as their offense has played at a higher level since that game. Unfortunately, that improvement has come at the cost of their defensive efficiency. USC has one of the worst defenses in the tournament, based on recent play.

PLAYER STATS

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

The Arkansas defense has held steady the whole season, and the offense is in a slight uptick entering the tourney. That uptick would look even “upper” if not for that last game against Florida. I’m going to credit Florida for that, more than blaming Arkansas. No matter which efficiency stats you look at, Arkansas appears to be a little underseeded.

ARKANSAS PLAYER STATS