These two teams played way back on November 15th. It was the first game of the season for Vanderbilt, and the second for Georgetown (although the first against a non-cupcake). Georgetown won easily, 86-70, with Roy Hibbert turning in an 18 pt, 10 reb performance in only 22 minutes. SEC POY Derrick Byars scored 14, and didn’t do much else. I wouldn’t take too much away from that one game, though. That was the pre-ridiculous Georgetown offense, and a Vandy team that had yet to find any kind of offensive or defensive consistency.

OK, so it’s still the same Vandy defense. Yes, their defense was one of the better units in the tournament in the first two rounds, but this is a group just four games removed from a streak of 3 consecutive games where they allowed their opponent a 60+ eFG%. Which is BAD, very BAD. I have no confidence in their ability to stay at this level, especially because Georgetown is the 4th best shooting team in the country (56.9 eFG%). Georgetown also is a killer offensive rebounding team (40.4%, 7th in the country), while Vandy is only average on the defensive boards. Georgetown’s strengths on offense match up with Vanderbilt’s weaknesses on defense.

The one bright spot for Vandy is that the Hoyas turn the ball over a lot (22.3% TO%, 227th), while the Commodores’ only top 100 rating in a defensive category other than FT rate is in steal percentage (10.8%, 96th). Still, the Georgetown offense should roll. They’ll turn it over like they always do, but on the possessions where they hang on to the ball they’ll shoot well, and rebound many of their misses.

When Vanderbilt has the ball, they’ll need to take full advantage to try to keep up with Georgetown. The Vanderbilt offense works by taking good care of the ball and shooting well. Georgetown doesn’t force many turnovers, so the first part should be easy. The second part, not so much. The Hoyas have the 10th best eFG% defense in the country (44%).

Vanderbilt takes 42.5% of their shots from behind the arc (27th), and shoots them fairly well (37.4%, 63rd). Unfortunately for them, Georgetown defends them even better (30.4%, 8th). When they do venture into the paint, the Commodores get blocked quite a lot (10%, 256th). Again, this plays right into a Hoya strength, as they are 11th in the nation in block percentage (15.8%).

No Georgetown preview would be complete without mentioning their slow pace, as they’re one of the slowest teams in the country (60.1 poss/40, 328th). Vanderbilt is an average-paced team that tends to falter once the pace gets into the mid 70’s (they’re 2-5 when the pace is 72 or higher). But against Georgetown they may want to try to push it that high anyway, and the efficiency of Georgetown’s offense is strongly correlated to how slow they play.

Even at a fast pace, I don’t see how Vandy can possibly pull this one out. Georgetown’s strengths and Vanderbilt’s weaknesses match up perfectly, and Vandy’s recent good defensive streak is predicated on their opponents’ poor shooting, which won’t continue in this game. It looks to me like Vanderbilt is going to both begin and end their season with a loss to Georgetown, and it won’t be as close as the statistical projections think it will.

FIRST 2 GAMES ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Georgetown 69, Vanderbilt 61
• Last 10 Prediction … Georgetown 68, Vanderbilt 60
• Vs. Good Prediction … Georgetown 71, Vanderbilt 62
• Trendline Prediction … Georgetown 72, Vanderbilt 64
• Best 6 Prediction … Georgetown 70, Vanderbilt 62

UPDATED GRAPHS

Georgetown team capsule

Vanderbilt team capsule

1st ROUND GAME ADJ. EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Washington St. 65, Vanderbilt 63
• Last 10 Prediction … Washington St. 63, Vanderbilt 61
• Vs. Good Prediction … Washington St. 67, Vanderbilt 63
• Trendline Prediction … Washington St. 71, Vanderbilt 70
• Best 6 Prediction … Washington St. 65, Vanderbilt 62

UPDATED GRAPHS

Washington St. team capsule

Vanderbilt team capsule

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Vanderbilt 73, George Washington 68
• Last 10 Prediction … Vanderbilt 70, George Washington 65
• Vs. Good Prediction … Vanderbilt 75, George Washington 69
• Trendline Prediction … George Washington 73, Vanderbilt 67
• Best 6 Prediction … Vanderbilt 68, George Washington 60

explanation

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

Vanderbilt’s offense is playing well, and trending upwards, but their defense has been terrible all year. That kind of imbalance is rarely rewarded come tournament time. Lucky for them their 1st round opponent is a George Washington team that has a lot of trouble putting the ball in the basket, or else they’d be an ideal upset-victim pick. They may still be. On the other hand, if they get some hot shooting, they could West Virginia their way into the Elite 8.

PLAYER STATS

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

George Washington has been trending towards excellent defense over the past few games. They also played well at the beginning of the season. The common thread between those games is that they’ve forced a lot of turnovers in each of those stretches. The offense hasn’t put together a really great effort all year, so they’ll need to maintain that turnover prowess to have any shot at pulling an upset, and frankly I’m not so sure that’s going to happen against the tougher competition they’ll face.

PLAYER STATS