Archive for the 'Virginia' Category

Sunday Viewing Guide

Mar 18, 2007 in monologue, Winthrop, Southern Illinois, Florida, Purdue, Oregon, UNLV, Wisconsin, Kentucky, Virginia Tech, Kansas, USC, Texas, Tennessee, Virginia, Nevada, Memphis, Viewing Guide

12:10 PM: #4 Virginia vs. #5 Tennessee
40 MINUTE GAME OF HORSE. Both of these teams played great on offense and poor on defense in the first round. The reason the scores look so different is all about the tempo and opponent. Both teams are likely to improve their defensive performance a bit, […]

1

Virginia - Tennessee Preview

1st ROUND GAME ADJ. EFFICIENCY

  Tempo Offense Defense Overall
Virginia 59 143.1 97.3 0.9883
Tennessee 69.6 152.2 104.5 0.9869

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

  • Full Season Prediction … Tennessee 81, Virginia 79
  • Last 10 Prediction … Tennessee 76, Virginia 71
  • Vs. Good Prediction … Tennessee 79, Virginia 76
  • Trendline Prediction … Tennessee 75, Virginia 69
  • Best 6 Prediction … Virginia 77, Tennessee 77

UPDATED GRAPHS

Virginia team capsule

Tennessee team capsule

Upsets By The Numbers

Mar 14, 2007 in monologue, Winthrop, Niagara, Arizona, Purdue, Notre Dame, TAMUCC, Virginia Tech, Illinois, VCU, Pittsburgh, Wright St., North Carolina, Eastern Kentucky, USC, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, George Washington, Georgetown, Belmont, Virginia, Albany, Stanford, Nevada, Creighton, Game-Probability Predictions, Trendline Analysis

When I fill out a bracket for an NCAA tournament pool (entered for pride only, no $$ exchanged of course), I’m obviously hoping in vain to get every game right. Not gonna happen. I have two other main goals (besides winning the pool): picking the Final Four correctly, and calling the first round […]

3

Virginia - Albany Preview

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

  • Full Season Prediction … Virginia 77, Albany 65
  • Last 10 Prediction … Virginia 67, Albany 60
  • Vs. Good Prediction … Virginia 74, Albany 61
  • Trendline Prediction … Virginia 60, Albany 59
  • Best 6 Prediction … Virginia 75, Albany 63

The way the teams have been playing recently, this is a prime candidate for an upset. Remember, Albany had a 12-point lead with 11 minutes left as a #16 seed last year against UConn, so they’ve shown they’re not afraid of the big boys.

explanation

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

  Tempo Rnk Offense Rnk Defense Rnk Overall Rnk
Overall 69.0 15 114.1 32 93.8 36 .9050 36
Vs. Good 68.0 18 114.7 30 95.3 40 .8940 37
Trendline 66.3 26 106.9 52 91.1 21 .8626 40
Last 10 66.4 24 112.0 44 93.3 28 .8915 38
Best 6 70.7 5 118.0 30 88.0 35 .9671 38

Virginia is really tumbling over the past 8 games. Their offense has seen their eFG% plunge, which has left them ranging between 95 and 120 on offensive efficiency, instead of between 110 and 135, like earlier in the season. Their defensive trendline is angling down, but taking a closer look reveals that it’s only due to a few bad games early. The average has hovered in the low 90’s for most of the calendar year, which is NOT good enough to carry the team. No matter which set of efficiency ratings you look at, Virginia seems to be vastly over-seeded. They’ve been playing at the level of about a 9 or 10 seed. Statistically, they’re clearly the weakest #4 seed in the tournament.

Points, assists, turnovers, blocks, and steals listed per 100 individual possessions

PLAYER STATS

Name %Min eFG% FT% PPWS Pts A TO BS S OR% DR%
Singletary 82.6 50.4 88.3 1.19 33.5 8.0 5.4 0.1 2.1 3.8 10.7
Reynolds 79.8 48.4 83.2 1.13 32.5 6.8 5.4 0.2 1.5 3.5 9.5
Diane 69.4 53.1 74.5 1.12 21.0 2.6 2.7 0.8 1.8 4.4 9.3
Cain 58.9 48.1 70.8 1.07 17.0 1.9 4.7 2.0 1.2 9.8 20.1
Joseph 52.3 57.3 75.0 1.15 18.9 2.6 2.3 0.6 0.8 5.3 11.3
Harris 35.0 39.5 66.7 0.85 15.0 1.8 4.0 1.1 0.8 13.8 14.6
Soroye 29.4 56.0 58.3 1.20 8.2 1.0 3.0 3.5 0.7 10.1 15.2
Mikalauskas 28.8 55.1 56.1 1.14 17.0 1.9 2.2 0.7 0.3 10.0 7.0
Tucker 22.1 56.6 55.6 1.15 20.6 0.7 4.0 0.9 0.7 6.5 16.5
Pettinella 19.1 68.4 24.3 1.12 15.8 0.3 1.8 0.5 0.5 14.6 12.9

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

  Tempo Rnk Offense Rnk Defense Rnk Overall Rnk
Overall 64.9 46 103.4 58 102.5 56 .5240 58
Vs. Good 63.5 54 100.8 57 101.9 60 .4688 58
Trendline 62.4 53 106.4 53 92.0 23 .8425 44
Last 10 62.8 50 106.0 56 98.3 45 .7025 54
Best 6 63.9 46 108.7 53 95.7 53 .8118 56

Albany’s full season and peak numbers indicate that they may not live up to their 13-seed billing. The one measure that says they may is their trend numbers. Their defense is playing significantly better than at any other point this season. If that keeps up, they have a fighting chance in the first round. Notably, though, their performance against above average teams is quite a bit worse than all their other indicators, so I wouldn’t hold out hope that the defensive improvement continues.

Points, assists, turnovers, blocks, and steals listed per 100 individual possessions

ALBANY PLAYER STATS

Name %Min eFG% FT% PPWS Pts A TO BS S OR% DR%
J Wilson 89.8 50.0 75.0 1.12 32.6 8.6 6.5 0.6 2.2 5.5 16.1
Siggers 77.4 50.4 81.8 1.09 28.3 4.5 4.3 0.7 1.4 6.1 9.6
B wilson 71.5 61.2 71.8 1.25 24.1 2.0 2.3 0.7 1.2 5.7 16.2
Lillis 65.0 56.3 62.1 1.19 17.3 5.6 5.0 1.6 3.6 6.9 16.6
Connelly 52.9 46.0 76.5 1.03 16.4 1.7 2.0 0.4 1.1 5.7 12.2
Covington 43.2 42.6 88.9 1.09 7.3 0.9 3.3 0.6 0.6 6.1 7.8
Iati 38.2 51.7 64.0 1.06 25.2 4.1 4.0 0.0 2.8 3.1 7.8
Gifford 28.8 52.3 28.6 1.02 8.2 1.2 5.1 2.0 2.0 7.1 10.3

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