EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

• Full Season Prediction … Pittsburgh 67, Wright St. 54
• Last 10 Prediction … Pittsburgh 62, Wright St. 60
• Vs. Good Prediction … Pittsburgh 66, Wright St. 57
• Trendline Prediction … Pittsburgh 61, Wright St. 61
• Best 6 Prediction … Pittsburgh 62, Wright St. 56

explanation

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

Pittsburgh’s offense is trending slightly downward recently, partly due to the struggles of Aaron Gray. In 9 of the past 10 games he has either picked up 4 fouls or been held to 10 or fewer points. The one game where he avoid both those fates was their best offensive game in that stretch. If he can stay out of foul trouble and get involved in the offense, they should be able to score. He needs to avoid fouls for their defense to succeed as well - they haven’t had a dominating game in that 10-game stretch, either. If they play like the have recently, they’ll win a couple games, but they need step up their offensive effort if they have hopes of a Final Four trip.

PITTSBURGH PLAYER STATS

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

Wright State has shown the most dramatic improvement over the course of the year of any team in the entire tournament, possibly explained by the team gradually learning exactly what’s expected of them by first-year coach Brad Brownell. Over their first ten games they were an 85/101 (Off/Def) team, which would place them around 230th in the nation over a full season. Over the last ten games, they’re a 108/91 team, good for around 55th. They lost to Butler by 29 points in early January, then beat them twice in their last 6 games. That Butler loss was their worst performance of the season, and also seems to be a turning point. Since then they’ve won 14 of 16, and their performance against above-average teams is a very good 113/86 (which would be the 14th best among tourney teams). Their Horizon league titles (regular season and conference tournament) were no fluke.

WRIGHT ST PLAYER STATS